Method of solar power prediction

• US 10,007,999 B2
• Filed: 08/10/2016
• Issued: 06/26/2018
• Est. Priority Date: 08/10/2016
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Hamann, Hendrik F., Klein, Levente, Lu, Siyuan, van Kessel, Theodore G.
• Primary Examiner(s): Carter, Aaron W
• Application Number:
  US15/233,412
• Publication Number:
  US 20180047170A1
• Time in Patent Office: 685 Days
• Field of Search: 382107, 382100, 33 1 DD, 6064115, 606418, 126572, 126617, 126633, 126621, 136246, 359265, 359273, 359275, 374109, 702 3
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 2207/10016 Video; Image sequence
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 2207/10024 Color image
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 2207/10032 Satellite or aerial image; Remote sensing
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 2207/30192 Weather; Meteorology
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 2207/30241 Trajectory
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 7/20 Analysis of motion motion estimation for coding, decoding, compressing or decompressing digital video signals H04N19/43, H04N19/51
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 7/246 using feature-based methods, e.g. the tracking of corners or segments
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 25/71 Charge-coupled device [CCD] sensors; Charge-transfer registers specially adapted for CCD sensors

Abstract

Techniques for estimating direct and diffuse sunlight reaching a location as a function of time using color whole sky images are provided. In one aspect, a method for forecasting solar insolation is provided that includes the steps of: obtaining color whole sky images using a digital camera which are taken at different times, and wherein an image of a solar disk is present in at least one of the color whole sky images; creating sky transparency images from the color whole sky images; determining atmospheric solar scattering based on a width of the solar disk in the color whole sky images; determining cloud motion trajectories from a time series of the sky transparency images; and calculating the solar insolation as a function of time using the sky transparency, the atmospheric solar scattering, and the cloud motion trajectories. A system for forecasting solar insolation is also provided.

Claims

1. A method for forecasting solar insolation, the method comprising the steps of:

obtaining color whole sky images using a digital camera, wherein the color whole sky images are taken at different times, and wherein an image of a solar disk is present in at least one of the color whole sky images;

creating sky transparency images from the color whole sky images;

determining atmospheric solar scattering based on a width of the solar disk in the color whole sky images;

determining cloud motion trajectories from a time series of the sky transparency images; and

calculating the solar insolation as a function of time using the sky transparency, the atmospheric solar scattering, and the cloud motion trajectories.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the color whole sky images are taken at a given time interval apart from one another, wherein the given time interval is from about 15 seconds to about 30 seconds, and ranges therebetween.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the color whole sky images are taken using a predetermined exposure time.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the predetermined exposure time is from about 0.1 milliseconds (ms) to about 0.5 ms, and ranges therebetween.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the color whole sky images are taken using a sky camera system comprising at least one sky camera.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the at least one sky camera comprises a digital camera.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the digital camera is a charge coupled device (CCD) digital camera.

8. The method of claim 6, wherein the digital camera is a charge integrating device (CID) digital camera.

9. The method of claim 5, wherein the at least one sky camera system comprises a fisheye lens.

10. The method of claim 5, wherein the at least one sky camera system comprises a hemispherical mirror.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the sky transparency comprises the step of:

determining a normalized difference between at least two color channels in one or more of the color whole sky images.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the sky transparency comprises the step of:

determining a normalized difference of a blue color channel and a green color channel in one or more of the color whole sky images as T(i,j)=Aij*((B(i,j)−

G(i,j))/(B(i,j)+G(i,j)), wherein T(i,j) is the sky transparency at a point (i,j) in the images, B(i,j) is an intensity of the blue color channel at the point (i,j) in the images, G(i,j) is an intensity of the green color channel at the point (i,j) in the images, and Aij is a fixed constant at the point (i,j) in the images.

13. The method of claim 12, further comprising the step of:

adjusting Aij for spatial variation in the color whole sky images.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the atmospheric solar scattering comprises the step of:

comparing the color whole sky images with past color whole sky images for which the width of the solar disk in the past color whole sky images has been correlated with direct normal irradiance (DNI) to determine the atmospheric solar scattering based on the width of the solar disk in the color whole sky images.

15. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the cloud motion trajectories comprises the steps of:

locating minima in the sky transparency images, wherein the minima corresponds to clouds; and

correlating the minima from an earlier sky transparency image in the time series to a later sky transparency image in the time series.

16. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of:

calculating the solar insolation as a function of time as I(i,j,t)=S(i,j)*I0(t)+BK(i,j), wherein I(i,j,t) is the solar insolation at a point (i,j) in the images at a time t, S(i,j) is the atmospheric solar scattering, I0(t) is a solar intensity as a function of time, and BK(i,j) is background scattering.

17. The method of claim 16, further comprising the step of:

determining the solar intensity as a function of time I0(t) as I0(t)=T(ST(t)), wherein T is the sky transparency and ST(t) is a solar cloud motion trajectory as a function of time.

18. A system for forecasting solar insolation, comprising:

a sky camera system comprising at least one digital camera configured to obtain color whole sky images taken at different times, wherein an image of a solar disk is present in at least one of the color whole sky images; and

a computation facility configured to obtain the color whole sky images from the sky camera system, create sky transparency images from the color whole sky images, determine atmospheric solar scattering based on a width of the solar disk in the color whole sky images, determine cloud motion trajectories from a time series of the sky transparency images, and calculate the solar insolation as a function of time using the sky transparency, the atmospheric solar scattering, and the cloud motion trajectories.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein the digital camera is a CCD digital camera or a CID digital camera.

20. A non-transitory computer-readable program product for forecasting solar insolation, the computer-readable program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having program instructions embodied therewith which, when executed, cause a computer to:

obtain color whole sky images taken using a digital camera, wherein the color whole sky images are taken at different times, and wherein an image of a solar disk is present in at least one of the color whole sky images;

create sky transparency images from the color whole sky images;

determine atmospheric solar scattering based on a width of the solar disk in the color whole sky images;

determine cloud motion trajectories from a time series of the sky transparency images; and

calculate the solar insolation as a function of time using the sky transparency, the atmospheric solar scattering, and the cloud motion trajectories.