Method, apparatus, and computer program product for forecasting demand using real time demand

• US 10,032,180 B1
• Filed: 06/26/2014
• Issued: 07/24/2018
• Est. Priority Date: 10/04/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Groupon Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Groupon Incorporated
• Inventors: Shariff, Shafiq, Nordquist, Derek
• Primary Examiner(s): Gills, Kurtis
• Application Number:
  US14/316,245
• Time in Patent Office: 1,489 Days
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/00 Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/248 Presentation of query results
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

Provided herein are systems, methods and computer readable media for managing a sales pipeline, and in some embodiments, generating demand based on real time demand and predicted demand. An example method comprises generating a virtual promotion, wherein the virtual promotion comprises a combination of a category or sub-category, a location, and a price range, calculating a probability that a particular consumer would buy the virtual offer in a predetermined time period, wherein the probability is generated at least based on historical data related to the particular consumer and one or more related consumers, determining an estimated number of units to be sold for the virtual offer as a function of at least the probability, the estimated number of units representing a predicted demand, calculating a real time demand, wherein the real time demand is generated based on a plurality of generated identification pairs for the predetermined time period, and determining, using a processor, total demand by summing the predicted demand and the real time demand.

Claims

1. A method for forecasting demand comprising:

generating a virtual promotion, wherein the virtual promotion comprises a combination of a category or sub-category, a location, and a price range;

calculating a probability that a particular consumer would buy the virtual offer in a predetermined time period, wherein the probability is generated at least based on historical data related to the particular consumer and one or more related consumers;

determining an estimated number of units to be sold for the virtual offer as a function of at least the probability, the estimated number of units representing a predicted demand;

calculating a real time demand, wherein the real time demand is generated based on a plurality of generated identification pairs for the predetermined time period, wherein calculation of the real-time demand comprises;

accessing, in real-time, user search data, the user search data generated by a user interacting with a promotion and marketing service to identify a requested promotion, the user search data comprising at least location specific data;

generating an identification pair for the search data, the identification pair comprising a first classification and a second classification, the first classification identifying a promotion tuple, comprising at least a category of promotion, and the second classification identifying a location identified by the locations specific data,

the first classification and the second classification generated by;

normalizing the user search data, supplying the normalized user search data to a classifying model as attribute data and training the classifying model to recognize one or more patterns of attribute data,

wherein the first classifier and the second classifier is a trainable classifier adapted using a supervised learning method, the first classifier and the second classifier adapted based on a training data set;

determining, using a processor, total demand by summing the predicted demand and the real time demand; and

subsequent to the determination of the total demand, distributing the total demand to multiple hyper-locations and multiple sub-categories due to the determination of the total demand for a portion of the virtual offers being identified by or including high level locations or categories, wherein the distribution of the total demand among the multiple hyper-locations and among the sub-categories comprising the distribution of the real time demand among the multiple hyper-locations and among the sub-categories.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein calculating the real time demand comprises:

determining a first classification of the user search data by parsing the user search data into one or more terms;

applying one or more terms within the user search data to a search index, wherein the first classification is configured to generate a mapping from the one or more terms within the user search data to at least one of a service or merchant;

determining a second classification of the user search data, wherein the second classification identifies a requested redemption location for the requested promotion; and

generating the identification pair for the search data that is representative of a promotion tuple, the identification pair comprising the first classification and the second classification.

3. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

distributing the real time demand across one or more predetermined price points.

4. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

distributing the real time demand across a plurality of hyper-local regions in an instance in which the second classification comprises a region that contains two or more hyper-local regions.

5. The method according to claim 2, further comprising:

distributing the real time demand across a plurality of sub-categories in an instance in which the first classification comprises a category that contains two or more sub-categories.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein determining total demand further comprises:

identifying a benchmark conversion rate;

comparing the real time demand to the benchmark conversion rate to set a modified real time demand that identifies a quantity of units that would have been purchased had the units been available;

identifying an actual purchase quantity; and

modifying the real time demand, wherein the real time demand is equal to the actual purchase quantity subtracted from the modified real time demand.

7. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

adjusting the total demand as a function of one or more external factors.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating a ranked user list for each of the one or more users comprising each of the one or more virtual offers and an associated calculated probability;

assigning a voting value to each of the one or more virtual offers on each ranked user list; and

generating a single list ranking each of the one or more virtual offers by adding the voting value each of the one or more virtual offers received on each ranked user list.

9. The method according to claim 8, wherein the determining of the estimated number of units to be sold for is only for a predetermined number of virtual offers, and is based on the ranking of each of the one or more virtual offers on the single list.

10. The method of claim 8, wherein the selecting of the one or more virtual offers further comprises:

calculating a projected revenue value for each virtual offer based on prior performance data per unit and the estimated number of units to be sold;

ranking the one or more virtual offers by the projected revenue; and

selecting one or more virtual offers to include in the forecasted demand based on the ranking of each of the one or more virtual offers by revenue and a pre-selected portfolio mix.

11. The method of claim 8, wherein the one or more external factors includes at least a seasonality component.

12. The method according to claim 1, wherein a virtual offer comprises at least price data, one product category or one service category, and location data.

13. The method according to claim 8, wherein the voting value is derived from a position of the one or more virtual offers on the ranked lists generated for each of the one or more users, wherein at least a predetermined number of virtual offers on each ranked list are assigned a first voting value.

14. The method according to claim 10, wherein the pre-selected portfolio mix comprises at least one of:

a category mix, a price mix, or location constraints.

15. The method according to claim 1, wherein one or more combinations of category or sub-category, location and price range are generated for a specified time period.

16. A computer program product comprising at least one non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having computer-executable program code instructions stored therein, the computer-executable program code instructions comprising program code instructions for:

generating a virtual promotion, wherein the virtual promotion comprises a combination of a category or sub-category, a location, and a price range;

calculating a probability that a particular consumer would buy the virtual offer in a predetermined time period, wherein the probability is generated at least based on historical data related to the particular consumer and one or more related consumers;

determining an estimated number of units to be sold for the virtual offer as a function of at least the probability, the estimated number of units representing a predicted demand;

calculating a real time demand, wherein the real time demand is generated based on a plurality of generated identification pairs for the predetermined tins period, wherein calculation of the real-time demand comprises;

accessing, in real-time, user search data, the user search data generated by a user interacting with a promotion and marketing service to identify a requested promotion, the user search data comprising at least location specific data;

generating an identification pair for the search data, the identification pair comprising a first classification and a second classification, the first classification identifying a promotion tuple, comprising at least a category of promotion, and the second classification identifying a location identified by the locations specific data, the first classification and the second classification generated by;

normalizing the user search data, supplying the normalized user search data to a classifying model as attribute data and training the classifying model to recognize one or more patterns of attribute data, wherein the first classifier and the second classifier is a trainable classifier adapted using a supervised learning method, the first classifier and the second classifier adapted based on a training data set;

determining, using a processor, total demand by summing the predicted demand and the real time demand; and

subsequent to the determination of the total demand, distributing the total demand to multiple hyper-locations and multiple sub-categories due to the determination of the total demand for a portion of the virtual offers being identified by or including high level locations or categories, wherein the distribution of the total demand among the multiple hyper-locations and among the sub-categories comprising the distribution of the realtime demanded among the multiple hyper-locations and among the sub-categories.

17. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein calculating the real time demand comprises:

determining a first classification of the user search data by parsing the user search data into one or more terms;

applying one or more terms within the user search data to a search index, wherein the first classification is configured to generate a mapping from the one or more terms within the user search data to at least one of a service or merchant;

determining a second classification of the user search data, wherein the second classification identifies a requested redemption location for the requested promotion; and

generating the identification pair for the search data that is representative of a promotion tuple, the identification pair comprising the first classification and the second classification.

18. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein the computer-executable program code instructions further comprise program code instructions for:

distributing the real time demand across one or more predetermined price points.

19. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein the computer-executable program code instructions further comprise program code instructions for:

distributing the real time demand across a plurality of hyper-local regions in an instance in which the second classification comprises a region that contains two or more hyper-local regions.

20. The computer program product according to claim 17, wherein the computer-executable program code instructions further comprise program code instructions for:

distributing the real time demand across a plurality of sub-categories in an instance in which the first classification comprises a category that contains two or more sub-categories.

21. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein the computer-executable program code instructions for determining total demand further comprise program code instructions for:

identifying a benchmark conversion rate;

comparing the real time demand to the benchmark conversion rate to set a modified real time demand that identifies a quantity of units that would have been purchased had the units been available;

identifying an actual purchase quantity; and

modifying the real time demand, wherein the real time demand is equal to the actual purchase quantity subtracted from the modified real time demand.

22. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein the computer-executable program code instructions further comprise program code instructions for:

adjusting the total demand as a function of one or more external factors.

23. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein the computer-executable program code instructions further comprise program code instructions for:

generating a ranked user list for each of the one or more users comprising each of the one or more virtual offers and an associated calculated probability;

assigning a voting value to each of the one or more virtual offers on each ranked user list; and

generating a single list ranking each of the one or more virtual offers by adding the voting value each of the one or more virtual offers received on each ranked user list.

24. The computer program product according to claim 23, wherein the determining of the estimated number of units to be sold for is only for a predetermined number of virtual offers, and is based on the ranking of each of the one or more virtual offers on the single list.

25. The computer program product according to claim 23, wherein the computer-executable program code instructions for the selecting of the one or more virtual offers further comprise program code instructions for:

calculating a projected revenue value for each virtual offer based on prior performance data per unit and the estimated number of units to be sold;

ranking the one or more virtual offers by the projected revenue; and

selecting one or more virtual offers to include in the forecasted demand based on the ranking of each of the one or more virtual offers by revenue and a pre-selected portfolio mix.

26. The computer program product according to claim 23, wherein the one or more external factors includes at least a seasonality component.

27. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein a virtual offer comprises at least price data, one product category or one service category, and location data.

28. The computer program product according to claim 23, wherein the voting value is derived from a position of the one or more virtual offers on the ranked lists generated for each of the one or more users, wherein at least a predetermined number of virtual offers on each ranked list are assigned a first voting value.

29. The computer program product according to claim 25, wherein the pre-selected portfolio mix comprises at least one of:

a category mix, a price mix, or location constraints.

30. The computer program product according to claim 16, wherein one or more combinations of category or sub-category, location and price range are generated for a specified time period.

31. An apparatus comprising at least one processor and at least one memory including computer program code, the at least one memory and the computer program code configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to at least:

generate a virtual promotion, wherein the virtual promotion comprises a combination of a category or sub-category, a location, and a price range;

calculate a probability that a particular consumer would buy the virtual offer in a predetermined time period, wherein the probability is generated at least based on historical data related to the particular consumer and one or more related consumers;

determine an estimated number of units to be sold for the virtual offer as a function of at least the probability, the estimated number of units representing a predicted demand;

calculate a real time demand, wherein the real time demand is generated based on a plurality of generated identification pairs for the predetermined time period,

wherein calculation of the real-time demand comprises;

accessing, in real-time, user search data, the user search data generated by a user interacting with a promotion and marketing service to identify a requested promotion, the user search data comprising at least location specific data;

generating an identification pair for the search data, the identification pair comprising a first classification and a second classification, the first classification identifying a promotion tuple, comprising at least a category of promotion, and the second classification identifying a location identified by the locations specific data,

the first classification and the second classification generated by;

normalizing the user search data, supplying the normalized user search data to a classifying model as attribute data and training the classifying model to recognize one or more patterns of attribute data,

wherein the first classifier and the second classifier is a trainable classifier adapted using a supervised learning method, the first classifier and the second classifier adapted based on a training data set;

determine, using a processor, total demand by summing the predicted demand and the real time demand; and

subsequent to the determination of the total demand, distributing the total demand to multiple hyper-locations and multiple sub-categories due to the determination of the total demand for a portion of the virtual offers being identified by or including high level locations or categories, wherein the distribution of the total demand among the multiple hyper-locations and among the sub-categories comprising the distribution of the real time demand among the multiple hyper-locations and among the sub-categories.

32. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code for calculating the real time demand are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

determine a first classification of the user search data by parsing the user search data into one or more terms;

apply one or more terms within the user search data to a search index, wherein the first classification is configured to generate a mapping from the one or more terms within the user search data to at least one of a service or merchant;

determine a second classification of the user search data, wherein the second classification identifies a requested redemption location for the requested promotion; and

generate the identification pair for the search data that is representative of a promotion tuple, the identification pair comprising the first classification and the second classification.

33. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

distribute the real time demand across one or more predetermined price points.

34. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

distribute the real time demand across a plurality of hyper-local regions in an instance in which the second classification comprises a region that contains two or more hyper-local regions.

35. The apparatus according to claim 32, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

distribute the real time demand across a plurality of sub-categories in an instance in which the first classification comprises a category that contains two or more sub-categories.

36. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code for determining total demand are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

identify a benchmark conversion rate;

compare the real time demand to the benchmark conversion rate to set a modified real time demand that identifies a quantity of units that would have been purchased had the units been available;

identify an actual purchase quantity; and

modify the real time demand, wherein the real time demand is equal to the actual purchase quantity subtracted from the modified real time demand.

37. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

adjust the total demand as a function of one or more external factors.

38. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

generate a ranked user list for each of the one or more users comprising each of the one or more virtual offers and an associated calculated probability;

assign a voting value to each of the one or more virtual offers on each ranked user list; and

generate a single list ranking each of the one or more virtual offers by adding the voting value each of the one or more virtual offers received on each ranked user list.

39. The apparatus according to claim 38, wherein the determining of the estimated number of units to be sold for is only for a predetermined number of virtual offers, and is based on the ranking of each of the one or more virtual offers on the single list.

40. The apparatus according to claim 38, wherein the at least one memory and the computer program code for selecting of the one or more virtual offers are further configured to, with the processor, cause the apparatus to:

calculate a projected revenue value for each virtual offer based on prior performance data per unit and the estimated number of units to be sold;

rank the one or more virtual offers by the projected revenue; and

select one or more virtual offers to include in the forecasted demand based on the ranking of each of the one or more virtual offers by revenue and a pre-selected portfolio mix.

41. The apparatus according to claim 38, wherein the one or more external factors includes at least a seasonality component.

42. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein a virtual offer comprises at least price data, one product category or one service category, and location data.

43. The apparatus according to claim 38, wherein the voting value is derived from a position of the one or more virtual offers on the ranked lists generated for each of the one or more users, wherein at least a predetermined number of virtual offers on each ranked list are assigned a first voting value.

44. The apparatus according to claim 40, wherein the pre-selected portfolio mix comprises at least one of:

a category mix, a price mix, or location constraints.

45. The apparatus according to claim 31, wherein one or more combinations of category or sub-category, location and price range are generated for a specified time period.