Method, apparatus and program of predicting obstacle course

• US 10,065,650 B2
• Filed: 11/12/2007
• Issued: 09/04/2018
• Est. Priority Date: 11/10/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Inventors: Kindo, Toshiki, Aso, Kazuaki, Harada, Masahiro
• Primary Examiner(s): Najarian, Lena
• Application Number:
  US12/312,195
• Publication Number:
  US 20100063735A1
• Time in Patent Office: 3,949 Days
• Field of Search: 701300
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 30/0956 the prediction being responsive to traffic or environmental parameters
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 40/072 Curvature of the road
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 40/076 Slope angle of the road
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0214 in accordance with safety or protection criteria, e.g. avoiding hazardous areas monitoring the location of vehicles within a certain area, e.g. forbidden or allowed areas, in traffic control systems for road vehicles G08G1/13
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/024 in combination with a laser lasers per se H01S
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0246 using a video camera in combination with image processing means
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0257 using a radar radar systems designed for anti-collision purposes between land vehicles or between land vehicle and fixed obstacles G01S13/931
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/027 comprising intertial navigation means, e.g. azimuth detector inertial navigation G01C21/16; inertial navigation combined with non-inertial navigation instruments G01C21/165
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0278 using satellite positioning signals, e.g. GPS
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/165 for passive traffic, e.g. including static obstacles, trees
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/166 for active traffic, e.g. moving vehicles, pedestrians, bikes

Abstract

A method, an apparatus, and a program of predicting an obstacle course, capable of appropriately predicting a course of an obstacle even under a complicated traffic environment, are provided. For this purpose, the course, which the obstacle may take, is predicted based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle, and at the time of the prediction, a plurality of courses are probabilistically predicted for at least one obstacle. When there are a plurality of obstacles, the course in which different obstacles interfere with each other is obtained from the predicted courses, which a plurality of obstacles may take, and the predictive probability of the course for which the probabilistic prediction is performed from the courses in which they interfere with each other is lowered. Probability of realizing each of a plurality of courses including the course of which predicted probability is lowered is calculated.

Claims

1. An obstacle course prediction method, in which a computer predicts a course of an obstacle, the method comprising:

detecting, by a detector mounted on a vehicle, at least a plurality of positions and internal states of obstacles present within a predetermined area relative to the vehicle;

extracting a plurality of obstacles within the predetermined area based on the detected positions and internal states of obstacles within the predetermined area;

storing, in a non-transitory computer readable memory, at least the plurality of positions and internal states of the obstacles present within the predetermined area relative to the vehicle;

selecting a first obstacle from the plurality of obstacles;

calculating a probability of a plurality of first courses that the first obstacle may take, based on a position and an internal state of the first obstacle read from the memory;

selecting a second obstacle from the plurality of obstacles, the second obstacle being different from the first obstacle;

predicting a second course that the second obstacle may take, based on a position and an internal state of the second obstacle read from the memory;

determining whether or not each course in the plurality of first courses interferes with the second course;

in response to a determination of interference for a respective course in the plurality of first courses, lowering the probability of the respective course and modifying the probability of the plurality of first courses;

generating an operation signal based on the modified probability of the plurality of first courses; and

transmitting the operation signal to an actuator device provided in the vehicle.

2. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining a course, within the plurality of first courses, in which the first obstacle interferes with the second obstacle;

lowering the calculated probability of the obtained course;

calculating a probability of the first obstacle traveling along each of the plurality of first courses including the course in which the calculated probability of which is lowered due to the interference of the second obstacle, wherein

the first obstacle satisfies a predetermined condition;

calculating the probability of the plurality of first courses includes performing probabilistic prediction of a plurality of courses, which the first obstacle may take;

lowering the calculated probability of the obtained course includes lowering a predicted probability of a course of which distance at a same time from a course, which the second obstacle may take, is smaller than a predetermined value, within the plurality of courses, which the first obstacle may take, when there are a plurality of the obstacles, and

calculating a probability of realizing each of the plurality of first courses includes the course the predicted probability of which is lowered when lowering the calculated probability of the obtained course.

3. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 2, wherein the first obstacle course prediction includes:

trajectory generation including generating variation in position, which the first obstacle may take with time, as a trajectory in space-time composed of time and space, based on the position and the internal state of the first obstacle, and

performing probabilistic prediction calculation of a course, which the first obstacle may take, based on the trajectory generated at the trajectory generation.

4. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 2, wherein the second obstacle course prediction predicts the course of the second obstacle assuming that the internal state of the second obstacle is maintained.

5. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 2, further comprising:

generating a course of the vehicle based on a position and an internal state of the vehicle; and

calculating collision probability between the generated course of the vehicle and each of the plurality of courses, which the first obstacle may take, of which probability is calculated for each course at the probability calculation.

6. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining a course, within the plurality of first courses, in which the first obstacle interferes with the second obstacle;

lowering the calculated probability of the obtained course;

calculating a probability of the first obstacle traveling along each of the plurality of first courses including the course in which the calculated probability of which is lowered due to the interference of the second obstacle, wherein

calculating the probability of the plurality of first courses includes performing probabilistic prediction of the plurality of courses that the first obstacle may take,

lowering the calculated probability of the obtained course includes lowering a probability of taking a course of which distance at a same time from a course of another of the obstacles is smaller than a predetermined value within the courses, which the plurality of obstacles may take, when there are the plurality of obstacles, and

calculating a probability of realizing each of the plurality of first courses includes calculating the probability of realizing all the courses of the plurality of obstacles including the course the calculated probability of which is lowered when lowering the calculated probability of the obtained course.

7. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 6, wherein

calculating the probability of a plurality of first courses includes

trajectory generation including generating variation in position, which the first obstacle may take with time, as a trajectory in a space-time composed of time and space, based on the position and the internal state of the first obstacle, and

performing probabilistic prediction calculation of the course of the first obstacle based on the trajectory generated at the trajectory generating.

8. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 6, further comprising:

generating a course of the vehicle based on a position and an internal state of the vehicle; and

calculating collision probability between the course of the vehicle generated at the course generating and all the courses, which the first obstacle may take, probability of which is calculated for each course at the probability calculation.