Weather pattern based electrical demand forecasting for a building
First Claim
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1. A computer based method for forecasting electrical demand of a building for short response to an upcoming demand response event, the method comprising:
- receiving a weather forecast for a demand response event of an upcoming day;
receiving a historical data file comprising historical weather data and historical electrical load consumption data for the building for a plurality of previous days;
ranking N days of historical weather data as best matching the weather forecast, comprising;
comparing, by a processor, the historical weather data for each of the plurality of previous days to the weather forecast, wherein the comparing includes calculating an average difference between at least one weather metric for one day of the historical weather data and the at least one weather metric for the weather forecast for a plurality of n time intervals;
calculating correlation coefficients for historical load consumption data and the at least one weather metric;
calculating a weighted error for each of the plurality of previous days using the average difference and the correlation coefficients; and
determining N days having the least calculated error; and
calculating, by the processor, a baseline electrical load consumption forecast of the building for the upcoming day based on the historical electrical load consumption data of the N days comparison;
calculating, by the processor, a ratio of an average electrical load consumption of the building for a past number n of time intervals and an average baseline electrical load consumption for the past number n of time intervals; and
determining the electrical load demand forecast by adjusting the baseline electrical load consumption by the ratio.
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Abstract
Embodiments include methods and systems for forecasting electrical demand of a building. Aspects include receiving a weather forecast for an upcoming day and receiving a historical data file comprising historical weather data and historical electrical load data for the building for a plurality of previous days. Aspects also include comparing the historical weather data for each of the plurality of previous days to the forecast and calculating a baseline electrical consumption of the building for the upcoming day based on the comparison.
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10 Claims
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1. A computer based method for forecasting electrical demand of a building for short response to an upcoming demand response event, the method comprising:
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receiving a weather forecast for a demand response event of an upcoming day; receiving a historical data file comprising historical weather data and historical electrical load consumption data for the building for a plurality of previous days; ranking N days of historical weather data as best matching the weather forecast, comprising; comparing, by a processor, the historical weather data for each of the plurality of previous days to the weather forecast, wherein the comparing includes calculating an average difference between at least one weather metric for one day of the historical weather data and the at least one weather metric for the weather forecast for a plurality of n time intervals; calculating correlation coefficients for historical load consumption data and the at least one weather metric; calculating a weighted error for each of the plurality of previous days using the average difference and the correlation coefficients; and determining N days having the least calculated error; and calculating, by the processor, a baseline electrical load consumption forecast of the building for the upcoming day based on the historical electrical load consumption data of the N days comparison; calculating, by the processor, a ratio of an average electrical load consumption of the building for a past number n of time intervals and an average baseline electrical load consumption for the past number n of time intervals; and determining the electrical load demand forecast by adjusting the baseline electrical load consumption by the ratio. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
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7. An electrical demand forecasting system comprising:
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a processor in communication with one or more types of memory, the processor configured to; receive a weather forecast for a demand response event of an upcoming day; receive a historical data file comprising historical weather data and historical electrical load consumption data for the building a plurality of previous days; rank N days of historical weather data as best matching the weather forecast, comprising; compare the historical weather data for each of the plurality of previous days to weather the forecast, wherein the comparing includes calculating an average difference between at least one weather metric for one day of the historical weather data and the at least one weather metric for the weather forecast for a plurality of n time intervals; calculate correlation coefficients for historical load consumption data and the at least one weather metric; calculate a weighted error for each of the plurality of previous days using the average difference and the correlation coefficients; and determine N days having the least calculated error; and calculate a baseline electrical load consumption forecast of the building for the upcoming day based on the historical electrical load consumption data of the N days comparison calculate a ratio of an average electrical load consumption or the building for a past number n of time intervals and an average baseline electrical load consumption for the past number n of time intervals; and determine the electrical load demand forecast by adjusting the baseline electrical load consumption by the ratio. - View Dependent Claims (8, 9, 10)
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Specification