Object path prediction method, apparatus, and program, and automatic operation system

• US 10,102,750 B2
• Filed: 06/23/2014
• Issued: 10/16/2018
• Est. Priority Date: 02/28/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Inventors: Aso, Kazuaki, Kindo, Toshiki
• Primary Examiner(s): Zeender, Florian M
• Assistant Examiner(s): Amsdell, Dana
• Application Number:
  US14/312,028
• Publication Number:
  US 20140303883A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,576 Days
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2554/4041 Position
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2556/50 of positioning data, e.g. GPS [Global Positioning System] data
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 30/08 Active safety systems predicting or avoiding probable or impending collision or attempting to minimise its consequences
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 30/095 Predicting travel path or likelihood of collision
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 30/10 Path keeping cruise control for automatically following a preceding vehicle B60W30/165
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 30/16 Control of distance between vehicles, e.g. keeping a distance to preceding vehicle
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 40/02 related to ambient conditions
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/161 Decentralised systems, e.g. inter-vehicle communication
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/164 Centralised systems, e.g. external to vehicles
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/165 for passive traffic, e.g. including static obstacles, trees
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/166 for active traffic, e.g. moving vehicles, pedestrians, bikes
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/167 Driving aids for lane monitoring, lane changing, e.g. blind spot detection

Abstract

An object path prediction method, apparatus, and program and an automatic operation system that can secure safety even in situations that can actually occur are provided. For this purpose, a computer having a storage unit that stores the position of an object and the internal state including the speed of the object reads the position and internal state of the object from the storage unit, generates trajectories in a space-time consisting of time and space from changes of the positions that can be taken by the object with the passage of time based on the read position and internal state of the object, and predicts probabilistically paths of the object by using the generated trajectories.

Claims

1. An automatic operation system mounted on a vehicle, the automatic operation system comprising:

(i) a computer including a central processing unit (CPU), wherein the computer is configured to;

detect positions and internal states of a plurality of objects based on an output of a sensor mounted on the vehicle,

predict a plurality of trajectories, indicating time changes and corresponding position changes, for the vehicle and for each of the plurality of objects individually, based on the detected positions and internal states of the plurality of objects, the plurality of trajectories of the vehicle extending simultaneously over a given time period and the plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects extending simultaneously over the given time period,

calculate, for each of the plurality of objects, a probability of each of the predicted plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects,

calculate an interference level between each of the plurality of predicted trajectories of the vehicle and the predicted trajectories of each of the plurality of objects individually, based on the predicted trajectories of the vehicle, the predicted trajectories of the objects, and the calculated probability of each of the predicted plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects, the interference level representing an extent of spatial interference between each of the plurality of predicted trajectories of the vehicle and the predicted trajectories of each of the plurality of objects,

select a path that the vehicle should take based on the interference level being less than a predetermined threshold, and

transmit an actuating signal generated corresponding to the selected path; and

(ii) an actuator configured to operate the vehicle in accordance with the actuating signal.

2. A method performed by an automatic operation system mounted on a vehicle, the automatic operation system comprising:

a computer including a central processing unit (CPU); and

an actuator, the method comprising;

detecting, by the computer, positions and internal states of a plurality of objects based on an output of a sensor mounted on the vehicle;

predicting, by the computer, a plurality of trajectories, indicating time changes and corresponding position changes, for the vehicle and for each of the plurality of objects individually, based on the detected positions and internal states of the plurality of objects, the plurality of trajectories of the vehicle extending simultaneously over a given time period and the plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects extending simultaneously over the given time period;

calculating, by the computer, for each of the plurality of objects, a probability of each of the predicted plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects;

calculating, by the computer, an interference level between each of the plurality of predicted trajectories of the vehicle and the predicted trajectories of each of the plurality of objects individually, based on the predicted trajectories of the vehicle, the predicted trajectories of the objects, and the calculated probability of each of the predicted plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects, the interference level representing an extent of spatial interference between each of the plurality of predicted trajectories of the vehicle and the predicted trajectories of each of the plurality of objects;

selecting, by the computer, a path that the vehicle should take based on the interference level being less than a predetermined threshold; and

transmitting, by the computer, an actuating signal generated corresponding to the selected path,

operating, by the actuator, the vehicle in accordance with the actuating signal.

3. The method according to claim 2, further comprising:

increasing or decreasing a value of the interference level between the vehicle and each of the plurality of objects by a specified quantity in accordance with a number of times that the vehicle and each of the plurality of objects move closer than an interference distance, which is a spatial distance at which objects interfere with each other.

4. The method according to claim 3, further comprising:

increasing, when the vehicle and one object of the plurality of objects move closer than the interference distance, the value of the interference level between the vehicle and the one object in proportion to a collision probability of the vehicle and the one object.

5. The method according to claim 3, further comprising:

increasing, when the vehicle and one object of the plurality of objects move closer than the interference distance, the value of the interference level between the vehicle and the one object in proportion to a magnitude of a relative velocity at a time when the vehicle and the one object move closer.

6. The method according to claim 3, further comprising:

storing, in a storage unit, a magnitude of a relative velocity during collision between different objects by associating with a damage scale evaluation value for evaluating a scale of damage caused by the collision or an amount of damage losses caused by the collision; and

reading, when the vehicle and one object of the plurality of objects move closer than the interference distance, the damage scale evaluation value or the amount of damage losses in accordance with the magnitude of the relative velocity at a time when the vehicle and the one object move closer from the storage unit and increasing the interference level between the vehicle and the one object in proportion to the damage scale evaluation value or the amount of damage losses.

7. The method according to claim 2, further comprising:

(a) selecting an operation performed on the vehicle from a plurality of operations;

(b) causing the operation selected in the operation selection step to be performed for a predetermined period of time;

(c) determining whether or not the position and the internal state of the vehicle after the operation selected is performed satisfy control conditions concerning control of the vehicle and movement conditions concerning movable areas of the vehicle; and

repeatedly performing step (a) to step (c) until a trajectory generation time in which the trajectory is generated has been reached.

8. The method according to claim 2, wherein

the selecting step selects the path whose interference level is smallest.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable recording medium that stores therein a computer program executable by a computer for performing an object path prediction, the computer program having instructions causing the computer to execute steps of:

detecting, by the computer, positions and internal states of a plurality of objects based on an output of a sensor mounted on a vehicle;

predicting, by the computer, a plurality of trajectories, indicating time changes and corresponding position changes, for the vehicle and for each of the plurality of objects individually, based on the detected positions and internal states of the plurality of objects, the plurality of trajectories of the vehicle extending simultaneously over a given time period and the plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects extending simultaneously over the given time period;

calculating, by the computer, for each of the plurality of objects, a probability of each of the predicted plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects;

calculating, by the computer, an interference level between each of the plurality of predicted trajectories of the vehicle and the predicted trajectories of each of the plurality of objects individually, based on the predicted trajectories of the vehicle, the predicted trajectories of the objects, and the calculated probability of each of the predicted plurality of trajectories of each of the plurality of objects, the interference level representing an extent of spatial interference between each of the plurality of predicted trajectories of the vehicle and the predicted trajectories of each of the plurality of objects;

selecting, by the computer, a path that the vehicle should take based on the interference level being less than a predetermined threshold; and

transmitting, by the computer, an actuating signal generated corresponding to the selected path, to an actuator of the vehicle in accordance with the actuating signal.