Improving an electronic system based on capacity demands of a network device

• US 10,108,905 B2
• Filed: 02/28/2014
• Issued: 10/23/2018
• Est. Priority Date: 03/13/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Comcast Cable Communications LLC (Comcast Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Comcast Cable Communications LLC (Comcast Corporation)
• Inventors: Bou-Abboud, Claude H.
• Primary Examiner(s): Rines, Robert D
• Application Number:
  US14/194,014
• Publication Number:
  US 20150248610A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,698 Days
• Field of Search: 705 711- 742
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/04 Inference or reasoning models
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/0876 Network utilisation, e.g. volume of load or congestion level

Abstract

Method of predicting capacity demands on a desired device used to support services for a number of subscribers within a market area having a number of devices. The method includes predicting the capacity demands as a function of historical capacity demands for the desired device and average subscriber capacity demands on the number of devices in the market area.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

determining, by a computing device, a first bandwidth capacity forecast for a first network device;

determining, by the computing device, a second bandwidth capacity forecast for a geographic area associated with the first network device;

predicting, by the computing device, a device capacity demand based on the first bandwidth capacity forecast and the second bandwidth capacity forecast;

comparing, by the computing device, the device capacity demand to a bandwidth capacity threshold and outputting a result of the comparing;

determining, by the computing device, a first slope of the first bandwidth capacity forecast;

determining, by the computing device, a second slope of the second bandwidth capacity forecast;

based on determining that the first slope is greater than the second slope, determining, by the computing device, one or more users of the first network device to migrate to a second network device associated with the geographic area; and

controlling migration of the one or more users of the first network device from the first network device to the second network device.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

receiving historical bandwidth consumption data for the geographic area;

receiving average forecasted bandwidth demand data; and

wherein determining the second bandwidth capacity forecast comprises determining the second bandwidth capacity forecast as a function of the historical bandwidth consumption data and the average forecasted bandwidth demand data.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

determining a capacity overload point as a function of the bandwidth capacity threshold and the predicted device capacity demand.

4. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

determining one or more corrective actions for the first network device as a function of the capacity overload point and the predicted device capacity demand.

5. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

calculating a period of time until the capacity overload point is surpassed by the predicted device capacity demand.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the first network device is a network communications circuit.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein predicting the device capacity demand comprises determining an average slope of the first slope and the second slope.

8. The method of claim 7, further comprising:

determining a planned upgrade of the first network device based on a comparison of the first slope and the second slope.

9. A method comprising:

determining, by a computing device, a first bandwidth capacity forecast for a first network device;

determining, by the computing device, a second bandwidth capacity forecast for a geographic area associated with the first network device;

predicting, by the computing device, a device capacity demand based on the first bandwidth capacity forecast and the second bandwidth capacity forecast;

comparing, by the computing device, the device capacity demand to a bandwidth capacity threshold and outputting a result of the comparing;

determining, by the computing device, a first slope of the first bandwidth capacity forecast;

determining, by the computing device, a second slope of the second bandwidth capacity forecast;

after determining that the first slope is less than the second slope, determining, by the computing device, one or more users of a second network device associated with the geographic area to migrate to the first network device; and

controlling migration of the one or more users of the second network device from the second network device to the first network device.

10. The method of claim 9 wherein the first network device is a network communications circuit.

11. A method comprising:

determining, by a computing device, a first bandwidth capacity forecast for a network device;

determining, by the computing device, a second bandwidth capacity forecast for a geographic area associated with the network device;

predicting, by the computing device, a device capacity demand based on the first bandwidth capacity forecast and the second bandwidth capacity forecast;

comparing, by the computing device, the device capacity demand to a bandwidth capacity threshold and outputting a result of the comparing;

determining, by the computing device, a historical capacity demand of the network device;

determining, by the computing device, a user capacity demand for the network device based on the historical capacity demand and the second bandwidth capacity forecast;

determining, by the computing device, whether the user capacity demand is expected to reach the bandwidth capacity threshold prior to the device capacity demand reaching the bandwidth capacity threshold;

after determining that the user capacity demand is expected to reach the bandwidth capacity threshold prior to the device capacity demand reaching the bandwidth capacity threshold, determining, by the computing device, a corrective action for the network device; and

modifying the network device in accordance with the determined corrective action, wherein the corrective action comprises at least one of migration of one or more users from the network device or augmentation of the network device.

12. The method of claim 11, further comprising:

determining a desired capacity threshold for the network device and determining a capacity overload point as a function of the desired capacity threshold and the device capacity demand.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the corrective action is further determined based on the capacity overload point and the device capacity demand.

14. The method of claim 12, wherein the predicting the device capacity demand is further based on averaging a slope of the historical capacity demand with a slope of the user capacity demand.