Adaptive traffic dynamics prediction
First Claim
1. A computer implemented method comprising:
- storing, by a processor in a database stored in a memory coupled with the processor, data indicative of a historical model of traffic conditions of a road network, the historical model comprising a set of patterns indicative of traffic conditions that have occurred during a prior time period for different portions of the road network, wherein the set of patterns include subsets of at least two patterns for the same portion of the road network and the same portion of the prior time period, each of the at least two patterns of a subset defining different traffic conditions that have occurred on the portion of the road network at the portion of the prior time period;
predicting, by the processor based on the historical model, traffic conditions for at least a portion of the road network for a future time period, the predicting further comprising;
adapting, by the processor, the historical model, to account for current traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network, the adapting comprising obtaining, by the processor, data indicative of real-time traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network, identifying, by the processor based on the future time period, the subset of the at least two patterns for the particular portion of the road network applicable to the future time period, and selecting, by the processor, one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset based on the obtained data indicative of real-time traffic conditions, wherein different real-time traffic conditions result in selection of a different one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset.
1 Assignment
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
The disclosed embodiments relate to prediction of traffic dynamics. A descriptive model is provided that uses historical probe data to create “tidal-like” patterns for the usual dynamics on the road network and creates a framework for taking a future time, e.g. in terms of month, day, time, and suggesting a typical speed for the specified road network link at that specific time. With this model, better predictions for estimated time of arrival will be derived. As opposed to blindly extrapolating from a static model, the disclosed embodiments dynamically adapt to current conditions using real time data to adapt, based on current conditions, the model from which a predicted speed may be determined.
51 Citations
21 Claims
-
1. A computer implemented method comprising:
-
storing, by a processor in a database stored in a memory coupled with the processor, data indicative of a historical model of traffic conditions of a road network, the historical model comprising a set of patterns indicative of traffic conditions that have occurred during a prior time period for different portions of the road network, wherein the set of patterns include subsets of at least two patterns for the same portion of the road network and the same portion of the prior time period, each of the at least two patterns of a subset defining different traffic conditions that have occurred on the portion of the road network at the portion of the prior time period; predicting, by the processor based on the historical model, traffic conditions for at least a portion of the road network for a future time period, the predicting further comprising; adapting, by the processor, the historical model, to account for current traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network, the adapting comprising obtaining, by the processor, data indicative of real-time traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network, identifying, by the processor based on the future time period, the subset of the at least two patterns for the particular portion of the road network applicable to the future time period, and selecting, by the processor, one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset based on the obtained data indicative of real-time traffic conditions, wherein different real-time traffic conditions result in selection of a different one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
-
-
11. A system comprising:
-
a processor and a memory coupled therewith; a database stored in the memory, the database comprising data indicative of a historical model of traffic conditions of a road network, the historical model comprising a set of patterns indicative of traffic conditions that have occurred during a prior time period for different portions of the road network, wherein the set of patterns include subsets of at least two patterns for the same portion of the road network and the same portion of the prior time period, each of the at least two patterns of a subset defining different traffic conditions that have occurred on the portion of the road network at the portion of the prior time period; logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to predict, based on the historical model, traffic conditions for at least a portion of the road network for a future time period, the logic being further executable by the processor to cause the processor to adapt the historical model to account for current traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network via acquisition of data indicative of real-time traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network, identification, based on the future time period, the subset of the at least two patterns for the particular portion of the road network applicable to the future time period, and selection of one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset based on the obtained data indicative of real-time traffic conditions, wherein different real-time traffic conditions result in selection of a different one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
-
-
21. A system comprising:
-
a historical model of traffic conditions of a road network, the historical model comprising a set of patterns indicative of traffic conditions that have occurred during a prior time period for different portions of the road network, wherein the set of patterns include subsets of at least two patterns for the same portion of the road network and the same portion of the prior time period, each of the at least two patterns of a subset defining different traffic conditions that have occurred on the portion of the road network at the portion of the prior time period; a traffic dynamics predictor coupled with the historical model and operative to predict, based on the historical model, traffic conditions for at least a portion of the road network for a future time period, the traffic dynamics predictor being further operative to adapt the historical model to account for current traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network via acquisition of data indicative of real-time traffic conditions along at least the portion of the road network, identification, based on the future time period, the subset of the at least two patterns for the particular portion of the road network applicable to the future time period, and selection of one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset based on the obtained data indicative of real-time traffic conditions, wherein different real-time traffic conditions result in selection of a different one of the at least two patterns of the identified subset.
-
Specification