Systems and methods for altering issue outcomes

• US 10,181,167 B2
• Filed: 04/21/2017
• Issued: 01/15/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 04/22/2016
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: FiscalNote, Inc. (Fiscalnote Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: FiscalNote, Inc. (Fiscalnote Holdings, Inc.)
• Inventors: Eidelman, Vladimir, Grom, Brian, Argyle, Daniel, Pinto, Jervis, Zoshak, John
• Primary Examiner(s): Wong, Lut
• Application Number:
  US15/494,381
• Publication Number:
  US 20170308799A1
• Time in Patent Office: 634 Days
• Field of Search: 706 45, 705 12
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/288 Entity relationship models
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/3331 Query processing
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/95 Retrieval from the web
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 3/0482 Interaction with lists of selectable items, e.g. menus
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 3/04847 Interaction techniques to control parameter settings, e.g. interaction with sliders or dials
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 40/205 Parsing
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 40/263 Language identification
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 40/30 Semantic analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/00 Machine learning
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/022 Knowledge engineering; Knowledge acquisition
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/04 Inference or reasoning models
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 2230/00 Voting or election arrangements
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/18 Legal services
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/26 Government or public services business processes related to the transportation industry G06Q50/40
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 11/206 Drawing of charts or graphs
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 2200/24 involving graphical user interfaces [GUIs]

Abstract

A system for predicting and prescribing actions for impacting policymaking outcomes may include at least one processor configured to access first information scraped from the Internet to identify, for a particular pending policy, information about a plurality of policymakers slated to make a determination on the pending policy. The processor may parse the scraped first information to determine an initial prediction relating to an outcome of the pending policy. The processor may access second information to identify an action likely to change at least one of the initial prediction and the propensity of at least one policymaker, to thereby generate a subsequent prediction corresponding to an increase in a likelihood of achieving the desired outcome. The processor may display to the system user a recommendation to take the action in order to increase the likelihood of achieving the desired outcome.

Claims

1. A system for predicting and prescribing actions for impacting policymaking outcomes, the system comprising:

at least one processor configured to;

access first information scraped from the Internet to identify, for a particular pending policy for which an outcome is not yet determined, information about a plurality of policymakers slated to make a determination on the pending policy, the determination influencing the outcome of the pending policy;

parse the scraped first information to determine an initial prediction relating to the outcome of the pending policy, the initial prediction including a prediction of the determination influencing the outcome of the pending policy for each of the plurality of policymakers and a measure of the propensity of each of the plurality of policymakers to decide in accordance with the determination;

display to a system user the initial prediction including how each of the plurality of policymakers is likely to decide and the associated propensity to decide in the predicted manner;

access second information to identify an action likely to change at least one of the initial prediction and the propensity of at least one policymaker, to thereby generate a subsequent prediction corresponding to an increase in a likelihood of achieving the desired outcome; and

display to the system user a policymaking recommendation to take the action likely to change at least one of the initial prediction and the propensity of the at least one policymaker in order to increase the likelihood of achieving the desired outcome, wherein the policymaking recommendation includes identifying a modification to language in the particular pending policy.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the at least one processor is further configured to receive from the system user, via a user interface, an indication of a desired outcome of the pending policymaking.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein accessing the second information identifying the action likely to change at least one of the initial prediction and the propensity of at least one policymaker includes at least one of accessing scraped data or accessing proprietary data.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the policymaking recommendation includes at least one of identifying a cosponsor, identifying language to change in the particular pending policy, identifying language to be added as an amendment to the particular pending policy, or suggesting at least one organization who desires the desired outcome or an outcome related to the desired outcome.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the initial prediction relating to the passage includes at least one overall percentage chance of passage of the pending policy, a prediction of a decision direction of each policymaker, and a propensity indicator reflecting a prediction of a conviction of each policymaker toward the predicted decision direction.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the second information identifying the action includes information about trends in decision patterns of the at least one policymaker.

7. The system of claim 1, wherein the second information identifying the action includes influence data of the at least one policymaker.

8. A method for predicting and prescribing actions for impacting policymaking outcomes, the method comprising:

accessing first information scraped from the Internet to identify, for a particular pending policy for which an outcome is not yet determined, information about a plurality of policymakers slated to make a determination on the pending policy, the determination influencing the outcome of the pending policy;

parsing the scraped first information to determine an initial prediction relating to the outcome of the pending policy, the initial prediction including a prediction of the determination influencing the outcome of the pending policy for each of the plurality of policymakers and a measure of the propensity of each of the plurality of policymakers to decide in accordance with the determination;

displaying to a system user the initial prediction including how each of the plurality of legislators is likely to decide and the associated propensity to decide in the predicted manner;

accessing second information to identify an action likely to change at least one of the initial prediction and the propensity of at least one policymaker, to thereby generate a subsequent prediction corresponding to an increase in a likelihood of achieving the desired outcome; and

displaying to the system user a policymaking recommendation to take the action likely to change at least one of the initial prediction and the propensity of the at least one policymaker in order to increase the likelihood of achieving the desired outcome, wherein the policymaking recommendation includes identifying a modification to language in the particular pending policy.

9. The method of claim 8, further comprising receiving, from the system user, via a user interface, an indication of a desired outcome of the pending policymaking.

10. The method of claim 8, wherein accessing the second information identifying the action likely to change at least one of the initial prediction and the propensity of at least one policymaker includes at least one of accessing scraped data or accessing proprietary data.

11. The method of claim 8, wherein the policymaking recommendation to take the action includes at least one of identifying a cosponsor, identifying language to change in the particular pending policy, identifying language to be added as an amendment to the particular pending policy, or suggesting at least one organization who desires the desired outcome or an outcome related to the desired outcome.

12. The method of claim 8, wherein the initial prediction relating to the passage includes at least one overall percentage chance of passage of the pending policy, a prediction of a decision direction of each policymaker, and a propensity indicator reflecting a prediction of a conviction of each policymaker toward the predicted decision direction.

13. The method of claim 8, wherein the second information identifying an action includes information about trends in decision patterns of the at least one policymaker.

14. The method of claim 8, wherein the policymaking recommendation is to take action for regulatory policymaking and the particular pending policy is a pending regulation, and the recommendation includes at least one of identifying language to change the pending regulation, identifying language to be added to the pending regulation, identifying policymakers, or suggesting at least one organization who desires the desired outcome or an outcome related to the desired outcome.

15. The method of claim 8, wherein the policymaking recommendation is to take action for judicial policymaking, and the policymaking recommendation includes at least one of identifying language to present in briefs, identifying language to be used in oral arguments, identifying policymakers, or suggesting at least one organization who desires the desired outcome or an outcome related to the desired outcome.

16. A data analysis system for aggregating data from at least one internet server and providing a predicted outcome based on the aggregated data, the system comprising:

at least one processor configured to;

receive event data from the at least one internet server, wherein the event data includes information indicating that a particular policy is pending;

receive, from the at least one internet server, alignment data associated with the event data, wherein the alignment data includes support or opposition data of at least one individual relating to an outcome of the event for which the outcome is not yet determined, the alignment data influencing the outcome;

receive from a system user, via an interactive interface of a browser, a desired outcome indicator corresponding to the event;

generate, based on the event data and the alignment data, assumption data, wherein the assumption data is output to the interface;

calculate, based on the assumption data and the desired outcome data, a success probability of the desired outcome, wherein the success probability is output to the interface; and

generate a suggested policymaking alteration to the assumption data that impacts the success probability, wherein the suggested policymaking alteration is generated based on the event data, the alignment data, and the success probability, and wherein the policymaking alteration includes identifying a modification to language in the particular policy.

17. The data analysis system of claim 16, wherein the event data comprises information indicating that the particular policy is a particular piece of legislation that is pending.

18. The data analysis system of claim 17, wherein the alignment data comprises information indicating whether each of a plurality of legislators slated to vote on the pending legislation will support or oppose the legislation.

19. The data analysis system of claim 16, wherein the desired outcome indicator includes an indication of whether the system user wants legislation associated with the particular policy to pass or not to pass.

20. The data analysis system of claim 16, wherein the assumption data comprises information indicating the likelihood that each of a plurality of legislators slated to vote on legislation associated with the pending policy will support or oppose the legislation.

21. The data analysis system of claim 16, wherein the success probability comprises a probability that a particular piece of legislation associated with the pending policy will pass or not pass.

22. The data analysis system of claim 16, wherein the suggested alteration comprises a change to a predicted number of legislators expected to vote in favor of legislation associated with the pending policy.