Probabilistic weather severity estimation system

• US 10,203,410 B2
• Filed: 05/02/2017
• Issued: 02/12/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 05/02/2017
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Original Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Inventors: Foltan, Stanislav, Molnar, Karol, Kuchar, Ales
• Primary Examiner(s): Haile, Benyam
• Application Number:
  US15/584,490
• Publication Number:
  US 20180321379A1
• Time in Patent Office: 651 Days
• CPC Class Codes: B60K 35/00 Instruments specially adapted for vehicles; Arrangement of instruments in or on vehicles
• CPC Class Codes: B64D 45/00 Aircraft indicators or protectors not otherwise provided for camouflage F41H3/00
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/88 Radar or analogous systems specially adapted for specific applications electromagnetic prospecting or detecting of objects, e.g. near-field detection, G01V3/00
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/95 for meteorological use
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/953 mounted on aircraft
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/06 giving a combined indication of weather conditions catathermometers for measuring "cooling value" related either to weather conditions or to comfort of other human environment G01W1/17; computers per se G06
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/08 Adaptations of balloons, missiles, or aircraft for meteorological purposes; Radiosondes transmission of measurements G01D; transmitting circuits H04B; balloons in general B64B; aeroplanes in general B64D; missiles in general F42B15/00
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 2001/006 Main server receiving weather information from several sub-stations
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 2203/00 Real-time site-specific personalized weather information, e.g. nowcasting
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/9535 Search customisation based on user profiles and personalisation
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 23/00 Alarms responsive to unspecified undesired or abnormal conditions
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/0091 for monitoring atmospheric conditions radar or analogous systems specially adapted for meteorological use G01S13/95; meteorology G01W

Abstract

A method implementing a probabilistic weather severity estimation system is provided. The method includes gathering meteorological information from a plurality of vehicles based on a non-periodic iteratively optimized communication method that at least in part takes into consideration an vehicle'"'"'s position and heading in relation to a weather event. A probabilistic weather severity estimation for future weather conditions is calculated based at least in part on the gathered meteorological information and an assigning of computed probabilistic weather severity values to nodes in a matrix. Each node is associated with a respective part of space volume in which the plurality of vehicles are gathering the meteorological information.

Claims

1. A method implementing a probabilistic weather severity estimation system, the method comprising:

gathering meteorological information from a plurality of vehicles based on a non-periodic iteratively optimized communication method that at least in part takes into consideration a vehicle'"'"'s position and heading in relation to a weather event, the plurality of vehicles traveling through an airspace volume associated with a plurality of nodes;

determining if an overlap of monitoring coverage of the airspace volume associated with at least one node of the plurality of nodes is present with at least two vehicles of the plurality of vehicles;

when an overlap of monitoring coverage is found present with the at least two vehicles, removing at least one vehicle of the at least two vehicles from gathering meteorological information;

re-gathering the meteorological information from a remainder of the plurality of vehicles; and

calculating a probabilistic weather severity estimation for future weather conditions based at least in part on the gathered and/or re-gathered meteorological information and an assigning of computed probabilistic weather severity values to the plurality of nodes.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

providing the probabilistic weather severity estimation to at least one of the plurality of vehicles.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the probabilistic weather severity values are associated with meteorological information related to at least one of intensity of precipitation, turbulence, lightening, hail and age of the meteorological information.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the plurality of nodes are in a matrix, and the method further comprises:

determining if parts of the airspace volume corresponding to nodes of the plurality of nodes are monitorable by at least one sensor of at least one vehicle, wherein the parts of the airspace volume corresponding to the nodes of the plurality of nodes are monitorable if the parts are being monitored by at least one sensor of at least one vehicle; and

when a part of airspace volume corresponding to a node is not monitorable by at least one sensor of at least one vehicle, removing the node from the matrix.

5. The method of claim 4, further comprising:

replacing the node in the matrix when the part of airspace volume becomes monitorable by at least one sensor of at least one vehicle.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the plurality of nodes are in a matrix, and the method further comprises:

determining if at least one node associated with a part of the airspace volume is a non-efficient node based at least in part on having a similar probabilistic weather severity value of a nearby node; and

when it is determined that the at least one node is a non-efficient node, removing the at least one node from the matrix.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

tracking ages of the computed probabilistic weather severity values of the plurality of node; and

timing requests for meteorological information from at least one of the plurality of vehicles based at least in part on an age of an associated probabilistic value.

6. A method implementing a probabilistic weather severity estimation system, the method comprising:

gathering meteorological information from a plurality of vehicles based on a non-periodic iteratively optimized communication method that at least in part takes into consideration a vehicle'"'"'s position and heading in relation to a weather event;

calculating a probabilistic weather severity estimation for future weather conditions based at least in part on the gathered meteorological information and an assigning of computed probabilistic weather severity values to nodes in a matrix, each node being associated with a part of an airspace volume in which the plurality of vehicles are gathering the meteorological information;

determining if a part of the airspace volume associated with at least one node is associated with changing weather conditions estimated to change over a select period of time; and

when the part of the airspace volume associated with the at least one node is not associated with changing weather conditions estimated to change over the select period of time, removing the at least one node from the matrix for the select period of time.

9. A method of implementing a probabilistic weather severity estimation system, the method comprising:

generating a matrix containing nodes associated with vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions within an airspace volume, the nodes corresponding to parts of the airspace volume;

tracking coverage of the monitoring of the meteorological conditions by the vehicles and associating the nodes of the matrix with the vehicles based on the tracked coverage of the monitoring of the meteorological conditions;

implementing an optimization process to remove at least one of at least one node and at least one vehicle from the matrix, wherein the optimization process to remove the at least vehicle from the matrix includes

determining if an overlap of monitoring coverage of the airspace volume associated with at least one node of the plurality of nodes is present with at least two vehicles of the plurality of vehicles, and

when an overlap of monitoring coverage is found present with the at least two vehicles, removing at least one vehicle of the at least two vehicles from the matrix and from gathering meteorological information;

requesting a remainder of the vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions in accordance with the then optimized matrix to transmit current monitored meteorological conditions;

assigning probabilistic weather severity values to each node in the then current matrix based at least in part on received meteorological information from the remainder of the vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions; and

generating a probabilistic weather severity estimation for future weather conditions within the airspace volume based at least in part on the assigning of probabilistic weather severity values in the matrix.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the probabilistic weather severity values are associated with meteorological information related to at least one of intensity of precipitation, turbulence, lightening, hail, age of meteorological information and distance of a meteorological information gathering vehicle to the meteorological information.

11. The method of claim 9, wherein the optimization process further includes:

determining if the meteorological conditions of the parts of the airspace-volume are being monitored by at least one vehicle; and

when a part of airspace volume is not being monitored by at least one vehicle, removing an associated node from the matrix.

14. The method of claim 9, wherein the optimization process further comprises:

tracking ages of the probabilistic weather severity values of the nodes; and

timing requests for meteorological information from at least one of the vehicles based at least in part on an age of an associated probabilistic weather severity value.

12. A method of implementing a probabilistic weather severity estimation system, the method comprising:

generating a matrix containing nodes associated with vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions within an airspace volume, the nodes corresponding to parts of the airspace volume;

tracking coverage of the monitoring of the meteorological conditions by the vehicles and associating the nodes of the matrix with the vehicles based on the tracked coverage of the monitoring of the meteorological conditions;

implementing an optimization process to remove at least one of at least one node and at least one vehicle from the matrix;

requesting aircraft monitoring meteorological conditions in accordance with the then optimized matrix to transmit their then current monitored meteorological conditions;

assigning probabilistic weather severity values to each node in the then current matrix based at least in part on received meteorological information from the vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions; and

generating a probabilistic weather severity estimation for future weather conditions within the airspace volume based at least in part on the assigning of probabilistic weather severity values in the matrix,

wherein the optimization process further comprises;

determining if a part of airspace volume is associated with changing weather conditions estimated to change over a select period of time; and

when a given part of airspace volume is not associated with changing weather conditions estimated to change over the select period of time, removing the at least one node associated with the given part from the matrix for the select period of time.

13. A method of implementing a probabilistic weather severity estimation system, the method comprising:

generating a matrix containing nodes associated with vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions within an airspace volume, the nodes corresponding to parts of the airspace volume;

tracking coverage of the monitoring of the meteorological conditions by the vehicles and associating the nodes of the matrix with the vehicles based on the tracked coverage of the monitoring of the meteorological conditions;

implementing an optimization process to remove at least one of at least one node and at least one vehicle from the matrix;

requesting aircraft monitoring meteorological conditions in accordance with the then optimized matrix to transmit their then current monitored meteorological conditions;

assigning probabilistic weather severity values to each node in the then current matrix based at least in part on received meteorological information from the vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions; and

generating a probabilistic weather severity estimation for future weather conditions within the airspace volume based at least in part on the assigning of probabilistic weather severity values in the matrix,

wherein the optimization process further comprises;

determining if at least one node is a non-efficient node based at least in part on having a similar probabilistic weather severity value of a nearby node; and

when it is determined that the at least one node is a non-efficient node, removing the at least one node from the matrix for a period of time.

15. A probabilistic weather severity estimation system, the system comprising:

a transceiver configured to transmit and receive signals;

a memory to store at least operating instructions and a matrix including nodes associated with parts of an airspace volume and vehicles gathering meteorological conditions within the airspace volume; and

a controller in communication with the transceiver and the memory, the controller configured to execute the instructions in the memory to;

populate the matrix with probabilistic weather severity values associated with the nodes based at least in part on received meteorological information from the vehicles gathering meteorological conditions within the airspace volume,

generate probabilistic weather severity estimation information based on the probabilistic weather severity values and a model forecast,

implement an optimization process before updating the probabilistic weather severity values in the matrix,

wherein the optimization process includes;

determining overlaps of monitoring coverage of the parts of the airspace volume by at least two vehicles monitoring meteorological conditions;

when an overlap of monitoring coverage is found present in a part of the airspace volume associated with a node, removing at least one vehicle of the at least two vehicles from being associated with the node in the matrix and from gathering meteorological information; and

re-receiving the meteorological information from a remainder of the vehicles.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein the probabilistic weather severity values are associated with meteorological information related to at least one of intensity of precipitation, turbulence, lightening, hail, age of meteorological information and distance of a meteorological information gathering vehicle to the meteorological information.

17. The system of claim 15, wherein the controller is configured to implement the optimization process by modifying the matrix by at least one of eliminating duplicate probabilistic values as the result of two or more aircraft monitoring the meteorological conditions at the same part of the airspace volume, removing nodes associated with non-monitored parts of airspace volume, and removing non-efficient nodes from the matrix.

18. The system of claim 15, wherein the controller is configured to implement the optimization process by tracking ages of the probabilistic weather severity values and timing requests for meteorological information from at least one of the vehicles based at least in part on an age of an associated probabilistic value.