Utilizing missed prediction

• US 10,252,710 B2
• Filed: 05/10/2017
• Issued: 04/09/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 05/10/2017
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America Incorporated (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Inventors: Geller, Benjamin M., Payne, Joshua D., Gaither, Geoffrey David
• Primary Examiner(s): To, Tuan C
• Application Number:
  US15/591,730
• Publication Number:
  US 20180326968A1
• Time in Patent Office: 699 Days
• CPC Class Codes: B60K 6/48 Parallel type
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 10/06 including control of combustion engines
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 10/08 including control of electric propulsion units, e.g. motors or generators
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 20/10 Controlling the power contribution of each of the prime movers to meet required power demand
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 20/11 using model predictive control [MPC] strategies, i.e. control methods based on models predicting performance utilising navigation and traffic information in the control strategy B60W20/12
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 20/15 Control strategies specially adapted for achieving a particular effect
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2050/0075 Automatic parameter input, automatic initialising or calibrating means
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2050/0088 Adaptive recalibration
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2420/403 Image sensing, e.g. optical camera
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2420/408 Radar; Laser, e.g. lidar
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2510/0638 Engine speed
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2510/0657 Engine torque
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2510/244 Charge state
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2520/105 Longitudinal acceleration
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2554/00 Input parameters relating to objects
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2556/10 Historical data
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2710/0644 Engine speed
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2710/0666 Engine torque
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2710/244 Charge state
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 2720/106 Longitudinal acceleration
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 30/1882 : characterised by the working point of the engine, e.g. by using engine output chart
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 50/0097 : Predicting future conditions
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 50/0098 : Details of control systems ensuring comfort, safety or stability not otherwise provided for
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 50/06 : Improving the dynamic response of the control system, e.g. improving the speed of regulation or avoiding hunting or overshoot
• CPC Class Codes: Y02T 10/62 : Hybrid vehicles

Abstract

A system includes a power source and a memory to store an event that is predicted to occur, an action to be performed by the power source to increase efficiency of the power source during the stored event, and a mis-prediction counter indicating a count of mis-predictions. The system further includes an ECU designed to predict that the stored event will occur and to control the power source to take the action when the stored event is predicted to occur. The ECU is further designed to update the mis-prediction counter and to adjust at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or a prediction horizon of the prediction when the mis-prediction counter reaches or exceeds a threshold quantity of mis-predictions to increase efficiency of the power source during a subsequent prediction of the stored event.

Claims

1. A system for improving vehicle efficiency of a vehicle comprising:

a power source configured to generate power usable to propel the vehicle;

a memory configured to store;

an event that is predicted to occur,

an action to be performed by the power source to increase efficiency of the power source during the stored event, and

a mis-prediction counter corresponding to a quantity of times a prediction of the stored event was incorrect; and

an electronic control unit (ECU) coupled to the power source and the memory and configured to;

predict that the stored event will occur,

control the power source to take the action when the stored event is predicted to occur,

increase the mis-prediction counter if the prediction was inaccurate, and

adjust at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or a prediction horizon of the prediction when the mis-prediction counter reaches or exceeds a threshold quantity of mis-predictions in order to increase the efficiency of the power source during a subsequent prediction of the stored event.

2. The system of claim 1 wherein the ECU is further configured to determine whether the prediction of the stored event was accurate by determining whether an actual event fits within a set of bounds defining a correct prediction of the stored event.

3. The system of claim 2 wherein the ECU is further configured to:

determine whether the actual event is further from the set of bounds than a threshold difference when the prediction is inaccurate; and

adjust at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or the prediction horizon of the prediction when the mis-prediction counter is below the threshold quantity of mis-predictions and the actual event is further from the set of bounds than the threshold difference.

4. The system of claim 1 further comprising a sensor configured to detect data corresponding to an environment of the sensor, wherein the ECU is further configured to:

analyze the detected data to determine whether the detected data indicates that the stored event is unlikely to occur, and

control the power source to take a different action than the stored action in response to determining that the stored event is unlikely to occur.

5. The system of claim 4 wherein:

the stored event is an acceleration rate;

the sensor includes at least one of a camera, a radar, or a Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) configured to detect a presence of an object in a path of the sensor; and

the different action includes at least one of preparing the power source to provide less than the stored acceleration rate or causing the power source to delay acceleration based on detection of the presence of the object.

6. The system of claim 1 further comprising:

a battery having a state of charge (SOC) and configured to store electrical energy;

a motor-generator coupled to the battery and configured to convert the electrical energy into mechanical power and vice versa; and

an engine having an optimal operating torque and engine speed corresponding to an optimal efficiency of the engine and configured to convert fuel into mechanical power,

wherein the stored event is an acceleration rate, and the action is to cause the engine to operate at the optimal operating torque and engine speed prior to the acceleration rate being requested in order to increase the SOC of the battery so that the motor-generator and the engine can provide sufficient mechanical power to provide the acceleration rate without the engine operating outside of the optimal operating torque and engine speed.

7. The system of claim 1 wherein the stored event is at least one of an acceleration rate over a predetermined distance or amount of time, a velocity of the vehicle after the predetermined distance or amount of time, or the efficiency of the power source over the predetermined distance or amount of time.

8. The system of claim 1 wherein the memory is further configured to store a backup action to be performed by the power source to increase the efficiency of the power source during the stored event, and the ECU is further configured to control the power source to take the backup action when the stored event is predicted to occur and the mis-prediction counter reaches or exceeds the threshold quantity of mis-predictions.

9. The system of claim 1 wherein the ECU is further configured to determine whether a predetermined quantity of mis-predictions occur during a particular time of day or a particular location and to adjust at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or the prediction horizon of the prediction for only the particular time of day or the particular location when the predetermined quantity of mis-predictions occur during the particular time of day or at the particular location.

10. A method for improving vehicle efficiency of a vehicle comprising:

generating, by a power source, power to propel the vehicle;

storing, in a memory;

an event that is predicted to occur,

an action to be performed by the power source to increase efficiency of the power source during the stored event, and

a mis-prediction counter corresponding to a quantity of times a prediction of the stored event was incorrect;

predicting, by an electronic control unit (ECU), that the stored event will occur;

controlling, by the ECU, the power source to take the action when the stored event is predicted to occur;

increasing, by the ECU, the mis-prediction counter if the prediction was inaccurate; and

adjusting, by the ECU, at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or a prediction horizon of the prediction when the mis-prediction counter reaches or exceeds a threshold quantity of mis-predictions in order to increase the efficiency of the power source during a subsequent prediction of the stored event.

11. The method of claim 10 further comprising:

determining, by the ECU, whether the prediction of the stored event was accurate by determining whether an actual event fits within a set of bounds defining a correct prediction of the stored event;

determining, by the ECU, whether the actual event is further from the set of bounds than a threshold difference when the prediction is inaccurate; and

adjusting, by the ECU, at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or the prediction horizon of the prediction when the mis-prediction counter is below the threshold quantity of mis-predictions and the actual event is further from the set of bounds than the threshold difference.

12. The method of claim 10 further comprising:

detecting, by a sensor, data corresponding to an environment of the sensor;

analyzing, by the ECU, the detected data to determine whether the detected data indicates that the stored event is unlikely to occur; and

controlling, by the ECU, the power source to take a different action than the stored action in response to determining that the stored event is unlikely to occur.

13. The method of claim 12 wherein:

the stored event is an acceleration rate;

the sensor includes at least one of a camera, a radar, or a Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) configured to detect a presence of an object in a path of the sensor; and

controlling the power source to take the different action includes at least one of preparing the power source to provide less than the stored acceleration rate or causing the power source to delay acceleration based on detection of the presence of the object.

14. The method of claim 10 further comprising:

storing, in a battery having a state of charge (SOC), electrical energy;

converting, by a motor-generator, the electrical energy into mechanical power and vice versa;

converting, by an engine having an optimal operating torque and engine speed corresponding to an optimal efficiency, fuel into mechanical power,

wherein;

the stored event is an acceleration rate, and

the action is to cause the engine to operate at the optimal operating torque and engine speed prior to the acceleration rate being requested in order to increase the SOC of the battery so that the motor-generator and the engine can provide sufficient mechanical power to provide the acceleration rate without the engine operating outside of the optimal operating torque and engine speed.

15. The method of claim 10 wherein the stored event is at least one of an acceleration rate over a predetermined distance or amount of time, a velocity of the vehicle after the predetermined distance or amount of time, or the efficiency of the power source over the predetermined distance or amount of time.

16. The method of claim 10 further comprising:

storing, by the memory, a backup action to be performed by the power source to increase the efficiency of the power source during the stored event; and

controlling, by the ECU, the power source to take the backup action when the stored event is predicted to occur and the mis-prediction counter reaches or exceeds the threshold quantity of mis-predictions.

17. The method of claim 10 further comprising:

determining, by the ECU, whether a predetermined quantity of mis-predictions occur during a particular time of day or a particular location; and

adjusting at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or the prediction horizon of the prediction for only the particular time of day or the particular location when the predetermined quantity of mis-predictions occur during the particular time of day or at the particular location.

18. A system for improving vehicle efficiency of a vehicle comprising:

a power source configured to generate power usable to propel the vehicle;

a sensor configured to detect data corresponding to an environment of the sensor;

a memory configured to store;

a trigger,

an event that is predicted to occur when the trigger occurs,

an action to be performed by the power source to increase efficiency of the power source during the stored event, and

a mis-prediction counter corresponding to a quantity of times a prediction of the stored event was incorrect; and

an electronic control unit (ECU) coupled to the power source, the sensor, and the memory and configured to;

predict that the stored event will occur when the trigger occurs,

control the power source to take the action when the stored event is predicted to occur,

analyze the detected data to determine whether the detected data indicates that the stored event is unlikely to occur,

control the power source to take a different action than the stored action in response to determining that the stored event is unlikely to occur,

determine whether the prediction of the stored event was accurate by determining whether an actual event fits within a set of bounds defining a correct prediction of the stored event,

increase the mis-prediction counter if the prediction was inaccurate, and

adjust at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or a prediction horizon of the prediction when the mis-prediction counter reaches or exceeds a threshold quantity of mis-predictions in order to increase the efficiency of the power source after a subsequent detection of the trigger.

19. The system of claim 18 wherein the ECU is further configured to:

determine whether the actual event is further from the set of bounds than a threshold difference when the prediction is inaccurate; and

adjust at least one of the stored event that is predicted to occur, the stored action to be performed by the power source, or the prediction horizon of the prediction when the mis-prediction counter is below the threshold quantity of mis-predictions and the actual event is further from the set of bounds than the threshold difference.

20. The system of claim 18 further comprising:

a battery having a state of charge (SOC) and configured to store electrical energy;

a motor-generator coupled to the battery and configured to convert the electrical energy into mechanical power and vice versa; and

an engine configured to convert fuel into mechanical power and having an optimal operating torque and engine speed corresponding to an optimal efficiency of the engine,

wherein the stored event is an acceleration rate, and the action is to cause the engine to operate at the optimal operating torque and engine speed prior to the acceleration rate being requested in order to increase the SOC of the battery so that the motor-generator and the engine can provide sufficient mechanical power to provide the acceleration rate without the engine operating outside of the optimal operating torque and engine speed.