Evaluation of DNS pre-registration data to predict future DNS traffic

• US 10,257,046 B2
• Filed: 05/27/2015
• Issued: 04/09/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 10/28/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: VeriSign, Inc.
• Original Assignee: VeriSign, Inc.
• Inventors: Thomas, Matthew
• Primary Examiner(s): Miah, Razu A
• Application Number:
  US14/723,177
• Publication Number:
  US 20150263903A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,413 Days
• Field of Search: None
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0273 Determination of fees for advertising
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/04 Processing captured monitoring data, e.g. for logfile generation
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 61/4511 using domain name system [DNS]

Abstract

Methods and systems analyze historical NXD traffic to predict future DNS traffic. In one embodiment, a system may count NXD responses generated by an Authoritative DNS server during a particular time period and calculate the variance in NXD traffic for domains over time. The system may then generate a coefficient of variance (CoV) value for each domain observed. Finally, the system may predict positive domain traffic based upon the calculated CoV data. In other embodiments, the system may also base the prediction on the classification of domains as “original” domains or “re-registered” domains. In another embodiment, the system may also base the prediction on the “size” of name servers. Additionally, or alternatively, the system may determine the number of unique name servers for a domain and base the prediction on the number of unique name servers for a particular domain name.

Claims

1. A method for predicting future network traffic, comprising:

receiving non-existent domain (NXD) requests from a plurality of name servers for one or more candidate domains over a first period of time;

determining a total number of NXD requests sent by each of the plurality of name servers over the first period of time;

determining the size of each of the plurality of name servers based on the determined total number of NXD requests sent by each name server over the first period of time; and

based on at least the determined size of each of the plurality of name servers, predicting at least one of an expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, an expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

providing an indication to a purchaser of the expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the indication comprises at least one of a relative monetization value for the one or more candidate domains, a value rating for the one or more candidate domains according to a predetermined baseline, or a predicted traffic statistic for the one or more candidate domains.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

identifying one or more identified domains from the one or more candidate domains receiving traffic from name servers of below a predetermined size;

wherein the predicting is further based on whether the one or more candidate domains are identified as an identified domain.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

determining a number of unique name servers for the one or more candidate domains over the first period of time;

wherein the predicting is further based on the determined number of unique name servers.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

filtering the one more candidate domains to remove one or more domains receiving traffic from name servers of above a predetermined size; and

making the predictions only for the remaining one or more candidate domains.

7. A device for predicting future network traffic, comprising:

a memory containing instructions; and

at least one processor, operably connected to the memory, that executes the instructions to perform a method comprising;

receiving non-existent domain (NXD) requests from a plurality of name servers for one or more candidate domains over a first period of time;

determining a total number of NXD requests sent by each of the plurality of name servers over the first period of time;

determining the size of each of the plurality of name servers based on the determined total number of NXD requests sent by each name server over the first period of time; and

based on at least the determined size of each of the plurality of name servers, predicting at least one of an expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, an expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

8. The device of claim 7, wherein the at least one process is further operation to perform the method comprising:

providing an indication to a purchaser of the expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

9. The device of claim 8, wherein the indication comprises at least one of a relative monetization value for the one or more candidate domains, a value rating for the one or more candidate domains according to a predetermined baseline, or a predicted traffic statistic for the one or more candidate domains.

10. The device of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is further operable to execute the method comprising:

identifying one or more identified domains from the one or more candidate domains receiving traffic from name servers of below a predetermined size; and

wherein the predicting is further based on whether the one or more candidate domains are identified as an identified domain.

11. The device of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is further operable to execute the method comprising:

determining a number of unique name servers for the one or more candidate domains over the first period of time;

wherein the predicting is further based on the determined number of unique name servers.

12. The device of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is further operable to execute the method comprising:

filtering the one or more candidate domains to remove one or more domains receiving traffic from name servers of above a predetermined size; and

making the predictions only for the remaining one or more candidate domains.

13. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium comprising instructions for causing one or more processors to perform a method, the method for predicting future network traffic, comprising:

receiving non-existent domain (NXD) requests from a plurality of name servers for one or more candidate domains over a first period of time;

determining a total number of NXD requests sent by each of the plurality of name servers over the first period of time;

determining the size of each of the plurality of name servers based on the determined total number of NXD requests sent by each name server over the first period of time; and

based on at least the determined size of each of the plurality of name servers, predicting at least one of an expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, an expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

14. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 13, further comprising:

providing an indication to a purchaser of the expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

15. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 14, wherein the indication comprises at least one of a relative monetization value for the one or more candidate domains, a value rating for the one or more candidate domains according to a predetermined baseline, or a predicted traffic statistic for the one or more candidate domains.

16. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 13, further comprising:

identifying one or more identified domains from the one or more candidate domains receiving traffic from name servers of below a predetermined size;

wherein the predicting is further based on whether the one or more candidate domains are identified as an identified domain.

17. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 13, further comprising:

determining a number of unique name servers for the one or more candidate domains over the first period of time; and

wherein the predicting is further based on the determined number of unique name servers.

18. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 13, further comprising:

filtering the one more candidate domains to remove one or more domains receiving traffic from name servers of above a predetermined size; and

making the predictions only for the remaining one or more candidate domains.

19. A method for predicting future network traffic, comprising:

receiving non-existent domain (NXD) requests from a plurality of name servers for one or more candidate domains over a first period of time;

determining a total number of NXD requests sent by each of the plurality of name servers over the first period of time;

determining the size of each of the plurality of name servers-based on the determined total number of NXD requests sent by each name server over the first period of time;

identifying each of the one or more candidate domains as an Original Domain or as a Re-registered domain, wherein the Re-registered domain is a domain that was previously registered but the registration has since lapsed; and

based on at least the determined size of each of the plurality of name servers, the identification, and received NXD requests, predicting at least one of expected name-in-use response levels for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

20. The method of claim 19, further comprising:

providing an indication to a purchaser of the expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

21. The method of claim 20, wherein the indication comprises at least one of a relative monetization value for the one or more candidate domains, a value rating for the one or more candidate domains according to a predetermined baseline, or a predicted traffic statistic for the one or more candidate domains.

22. The method of 19, further comprising:

determining whether the received NXD requests for Re-registered domains are associated with machine-generated internet activity;

filtering the received NXD requests to remove NXD requests associated with machine-generated internet activity for Re-registered domains; and

making the prediction based on at least the identification and filtered NXD requests.

23. A device for predicting future network traffic, comprising:

a memory containing instructions; and

at least one processor, operably connected to the memory, that executes the instructions to perform a method comprising;

receiving non-existent domain (NXD) requests from a plurality of name servers for one or more candidate domains over a first period of time;

determining a total number of NXD requests sent by each of the plurality of name servers over the first period of time;

determining the size of each of the plurality of name servers-based on the determined total number of NXD requests sent by each name server over the first period of time;

identifying each of the one or more candidate domains as an Original Domain or as a Re-registered domain, wherein the Re-registered domain is a domain that was previously registered but the registration has since lapsed; and

based on at least the determined size of each of the plurality of name servers, the identification, and received NXD requests, predicting at least one of expected name-in-use response levels for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

24. The device of claim 23, wherein the at least one processor is further operable to execute the method comprising:

providing an indication to a purchaser of the expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

25. The device of claim 24, wherein the indication comprises at least one of a relative monetization value for the one or more candidate domains, a value rating for the one or more candidate domains according to a predetermined baseline, or a predicted traffic statistic for the one or more candidate domains.

26. The device of 23, wherein the at least one processor is further operable to execute the method comprising:

determining whether the received NXD requests for Re-registered domains are associated with machine-generated internet activity;

filtering the received NXD requests to remove NXD requests associated with machine-generated internet activity for Re-registered domains; and

making the prediction based on at least the identification and filtered NXD requests.

27. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium comprising instructions for causing one or more processors to perform a method, the method for predicting future network traffic, comprising:

receiving non-existent domain (NXD) requests from a plurality of name servers for one or more candidate domains over a first period of time;

determining a total number of NXD requests sent by each of the plurality of name servers over the first period of time;

determining the size of each of the plurality of name servers-based on the determined total number of NXD requests sent by each name server over the first period of time;

identifying each of the one or more candidate domains as an Original Domain or as a Re-registered domain, wherein the Re-registered domain is a domain that was previously registered but the registration has since lapsed; and

based on at least the determined size of each of the plurality of name servers, the identification, and received NXD requests, predicting at least one of expected name-in-use response levels for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

28. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 27, further comprising:

providing an indication to a purchaser of the expected name-in-use response level for the one or more candidate domains, expected click traffic for the one or more candidate domains, or a combination thereof.

29. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 28, wherein the indication comprises at least one of a relative monetization value for the one or more candidate domains, a value rating for the one or more candidate domains according to a predetermined baseline, or a predicted traffic statistic for the one or more candidate domains.

30. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of 27, further comprising:

determining whether the received NXD requests for Re-registered domains are associated with machine-generated internet activity;

filtering the received NXD requests to remove NXD requests associated with machine-generated internet activity for Re-registered domains; and

making the prediction based on at least the identification and filtered NXD requests.