System and method for performing signal processing and dynamic analysis and forecasting of risk of third parties
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:
- generating a computerized network map being inclusive of a plurality of nodes representative of risk factors in multiple geographic regions in which one or more third parties of a user operate, each of the nodes in the network map (i) being interconnected with at least one of the other nodes as correlated risks and (ii) including a risk factor value calculated as a function of at least one risk measure used to model the respective risk factor;
computing a baseline risk of a geographic region by;
collecting data metrics for each risk factor of the geographic region;
processing the data metrics to generate normalized data for each risk factor;
aggregating the normalized data metrics of each risk factor to generate risk factor scores; and
computing a baseline risk score for the geographic region by aggregating the risk factor scores;
dynamically performing signal processing for each risk factor in a geographic region on associated content, including news and event content, and metadata associated with the content by;
utilizing a taxonomy describing disruption events associated with each of the risk factors of the network map and a taxonomy describing a geographic region being monitored in which the one or more third parties operate;
measuring signal strength of the identified content based on the metadata associated with the content;
measuring signal strength associated with a risk factor for the geographic region for a fixed period of time based on the signal strength of the identified content associated with that risk factor, thereby forming a time series of the measured signal strengths;
performing sequential analysis on the time series of the measured signal strengths of the risk factor for the geographic region using the variance of the historical distribution of signal strength for the risk factor for step detection;
step detecting to generate a risk signal for the risk factor within the geographic region based on a value of the calculated sequential analysis exceeding a threshold value determined by the variance of an historical distribution of the signal strength of the risk factor; and
activating the risk factor for the geographic region in response to the risk signal being generated;
forecasting risk in the geographic region in which the risk factor was activated in response to the risk signal being generated, the forecasting including;
calculating diffusion of risk throughout the network map so as to measure impact on correlated risks across the network map;
computing the projection of risk impact for each risk factor within the network map;
computing the probability projection for each risk factor within the network map; and
generating a risk projection for the geographic region based on the individual risk factor projections; and
generating a dynamic graphical user interface for the forecasted risk for the risk factors and the forecasted vulnerability scores for third parties within the geographic region.
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Abstract
A system and process for forecasting third party disruption that uses a complex computerized network map as part of a risk model may be used to analyze risk for third parties. A number of risk factors or nodes of the map may include a wide range of risks (e.g., corruption) that have an impact on third parties in a geographic region. A baseline risk level may be established by scoring underlying risk measures for respective geographic regions. By executing the risk model using dynamic signal processing in a near real-time manner and considering impact, velocity, likelihood, and interconnectedness of risk factors and the diffusion of risk across a network, potential third party disruption and/or vulnerability can be forecasted.
58 Citations
19 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:
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generating a computerized network map being inclusive of a plurality of nodes representative of risk factors in multiple geographic regions in which one or more third parties of a user operate, each of the nodes in the network map (i) being interconnected with at least one of the other nodes as correlated risks and (ii) including a risk factor value calculated as a function of at least one risk measure used to model the respective risk factor; computing a baseline risk of a geographic region by; collecting data metrics for each risk factor of the geographic region; processing the data metrics to generate normalized data for each risk factor; aggregating the normalized data metrics of each risk factor to generate risk factor scores; and computing a baseline risk score for the geographic region by aggregating the risk factor scores; dynamically performing signal processing for each risk factor in a geographic region on associated content, including news and event content, and metadata associated with the content by; utilizing a taxonomy describing disruption events associated with each of the risk factors of the network map and a taxonomy describing a geographic region being monitored in which the one or more third parties operate; measuring signal strength of the identified content based on the metadata associated with the content; measuring signal strength associated with a risk factor for the geographic region for a fixed period of time based on the signal strength of the identified content associated with that risk factor, thereby forming a time series of the measured signal strengths; performing sequential analysis on the time series of the measured signal strengths of the risk factor for the geographic region using the variance of the historical distribution of signal strength for the risk factor for step detection; step detecting to generate a risk signal for the risk factor within the geographic region based on a value of the calculated sequential analysis exceeding a threshold value determined by the variance of an historical distribution of the signal strength of the risk factor; and activating the risk factor for the geographic region in response to the risk signal being generated; forecasting risk in the geographic region in which the risk factor was activated in response to the risk signal being generated, the forecasting including; calculating diffusion of risk throughout the network map so as to measure impact on correlated risks across the network map; computing the projection of risk impact for each risk factor within the network map; computing the probability projection for each risk factor within the network map; and generating a risk projection for the geographic region based on the individual risk factor projections; and generating a dynamic graphical user interface for the forecasted risk for the risk factors and the forecasted vulnerability scores for third parties within the geographic region. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
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Specification