Temporal bias correction in wind forecasting
First Claim
1. A method of bias correction in wind forecasting, the method comprising:
- extracting, from a forecast that is applicable to a future period and a geographical area, a set of weather characteristics of the future period;
selecting, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of weather characteristics;
computing a time difference between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed, wherein the time difference is a factor of at least one of an elevation or a distance between an observation station associated with the set of historical data and a wind turbine;
computing, using a processor and a memory, from the set of historical data, a time function to represent a discrepancy between the historical forecast and the actual measurement over the historical period wherein the time function represents a curve formed by a plurality of time differences, the time difference being a member of the plurality of time differences;
computing a bias value from the time function; and
adjusting the forecast, using the processor and the memory, by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a blade of the wind turbine located at the location in the geographical area.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A set of characteristics of a period is extracted from a forecast that is applicable to the period and a geographical area. From a repository, a set of historical data is selected corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data including a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of characteristics. From the set of historical data, a function is computed to represent a discrepancy between the historical forecast and the actual measurement over the historical period. A bias value is computed from the function. By applying the bias to a value in the forecast, an adjusted forecast is produced of winds at a wind turbine located at a location in the geographical area.
31 Citations
17 Claims
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1. A method of bias correction in wind forecasting, the method comprising:
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extracting, from a forecast that is applicable to a future period and a geographical area, a set of weather characteristics of the future period; selecting, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of weather characteristics; computing a time difference between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed, wherein the time difference is a factor of at least one of an elevation or a distance between an observation station associated with the set of historical data and a wind turbine; computing, using a processor and a memory, from the set of historical data, a time function to represent a discrepancy between the historical forecast and the actual measurement over the historical period wherein the time function represents a curve formed by a plurality of time differences, the time difference being a member of the plurality of time differences; computing a bias value from the time function; and adjusting the forecast, using the processor and the memory, by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a blade of the wind turbine located at the location in the geographical area. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5)
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6. A computer usable program product for bias correction in wind forecasting, the computer usable program product comprising a non-transitory computer-readable medium, and program instructions stored on the computer-readable medium, the stored program instructions comprising:
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program instructions to extract, from a forecast that is applicable to a future period and a geographical area, a set of weather characteristics of the future period; program instructions to select, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of weather characteristics; program instructions to compute a time difference between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed, wherein the time difference is a factor of at least one of an elevation or a distance between an observation station associated with the set of historical data and a wind turbine; program instructions to compute from the set of historical data, a time function to represent a discrepancy between the historical forecast and the actual measurement over the historical period, wherein the time function represents a curve formed by a plurality of time differences, the time difference being a member of the plurality of time differences; program instructions to compute a bias value from the time function; and program instructions to adjust the forecast by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a blade of the wind turbine located at the location in the geographical area. - View Dependent Claims (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A computer system for bias correction in wind forecasting, the computer system comprising one or more processors, one or more computer-readable memories, and one or more computer-readable storage devices, and program instructions stored on at least one of the one or more storage devices for execution by at least one of the one or more processors via at least one of the one or more memories, the stored program instructions comprising:
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program instructions to extract, from a forecast that is applicable to a future period and a geographical area, a set of weather characteristics of the future period; program instructions to select, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of weather characteristics; program instructions to compute a time difference between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed, wherein the time difference is a factor of at least one of an elevation or a distance between an observation station associated with the set of historical data and a wind turbine; program instructions to compute from the set of historical data, a time function to represent a discrepancy between the historical forecast and the actual measurement over the historical period, wherein the time function represents a curve formed by a plurality of time differences, the time difference being a member of the plurality of time differences; program instructions to compute a bias value from the time function; and program instructions to adjust the forecast by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a blade of the wind turbine located at the location in the geographical area. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17)
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Specification