System and method for the analysis of pricing data including a sustainable price range for vehicles and other commodities

• US 10,387,833 B2
• Filed: 09/14/2012
• Issued: 08/20/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 10/02/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Original Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Inventors: Swinson, Michael, Painter, Scott
• Primary Examiner(s): Stamber, Eric W
• Assistant Examiner(s): Walker, III, George H
• Application Number:
  US13/617,764
• Publication Number:
  US 20130018804A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,531 Days
• Field of Search: 705 735
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors

Abstract

Embodiments disclosed herein can produce and present sustainable price information to help dealers to price vehicles for sustainability and facilitate consumers in making purchase decisions. In one approach, a sustainable price range for a specific vehicle configuration may be based on an average profit margin (APM) determined utilizing historical sale prices and an estimated actual dealer cost. Other approaches may utilize some or all of the following steps: determine APM and build a model of distribution of profit margins by APM, build a model to adjust APM by certain variables, identify sustainable levels for the inventory, production, and incentives variables feeding into the APM model, plug those in to get the averages for those sustainable levels, identify sustainable percentile cutoffs for a given profit margin, then use this relationship with the now identified sustainable levels as inputs to find the overall sustainable profit margin.

Claims

1. A system, comprising:

one or more computing devices communicatively coupled to a network a vehicle data system including a processing module operable to;

in a back-end process;

obtain a set of historical transaction data associated with a specified vehicle configuration from a first set of distributed sources, where the set of historical transaction data comprises data on transactions associated with vehicles of the specified vehicle configuration;

enhancing the set of historical transaction records with additional vehicle data collected from a second set of distributed sources by VIN by correlating the additional vehicle data collected from the second set of distributed sources with data on transactions of the set of historical transaction data;

determine pricing data corresponding to the specified vehicle configuration using the enhanced set of historical transaction records, wherein the pricing data includes sustainable price information including a price for the vehicle which a dealer can maintain over time while earning a specified return-on-investment,

wherein the sustainable price information is determined based on historical sale prices associated with the specified vehicle configuration and dealer cost associated with the specified vehicle configuration,

wherein the dealer cost is an estimated actual dealer cost associated with the specific vehicle configuration,

wherein the estimated actual dealer cost is determined by obtaining data on a set of dealers, the data comprising information on a payout program, number of vehicles sold, and historical values associated with at least one dealer cost component, the at least one dealer cost component comprises a Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) and the estimated actual dealer cost is determined by constructing a predictive model to determine an expected CSI score [x] at a particular level, determining an expected average of the expected CSI score for a current month (E[x]), determining an average CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the current month (E[b]) utilizing E[x], and adjusting a base dealer cost with E[b], thereby producing the estimated actual dealer cost; and

in an online front-end process generating an interface by;

in response to a request received over a first channel and specifying a vehicle attribute, generate in real-time the interface based on the pricing data determined in the back-end process, wherein the interface is configured to present the sustainable price information relative to the dealer cost associated with the specified vehicle configuration according to a second channel of a plurality of channels, and the interface displays the sustainable price information, including a sustainable price range including a minimum sustainable price and a maximum sustainable price, and the dealer cost along a common pricing axis in relation to a first indicator indicating an average price paid and a second indicator indicating a factory invoice price by;

applying a first set of rules to select a bin of enhanced historical transaction records the based on the specified vehicle attribute, the first set of rules selected based on the specified vehicle attribute,

selecting a second set of rules for determining the dealer cost based on the specified vehicle attribute, and

applying the selected second set of rules to the set of enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to the selected bin to generate the dealer cost; and

provide the interface through the second channel of the plurality of channels in real-time in response to the request received over the first channel.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the processing module is further configured to determine an average profit margin.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein the processing module is further configured to adjust the average profit margin to account for a plurality of variables, including incentives, inventory levels, production levels, sales volumes, or a combination thereof.

4. The system of claim 3, wherein the processing module is further configured to determine historical sustainable levels for the specific vehicle configuration, wherein the historical sustainable levels include one or more historical sustainable prices, each historical sustainable price is a price for the vehicle which a dealer could maintain over time while earning a specified return-on-investment determined at a particular time.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the vehicle data system further:

uses an origin server to populate a web cache at each of the one or more server farms data, and the interface is generated at the one or more server farms based on the data in the web cache at the one or more server farms.

6. A computer program product comprising at least one non-transitory computer readable medium storing instructions translatable by at least one processor comprising:

one or more computing devices communicatively coupled to a network to implement a vehicle data system,

instructions translatable for;

in a back-end process;

obtaining a set of historical transaction data associated with a specified vehicle configuration from a first set of distributed sources, where the set of historical transaction data comprises data on transactions associated with vehicles of the specified vehicle configuration;

enhancing the set of historical transaction records with additional vehicle data collected from a second set of distributed sources by VIN by correlating the additional vehicle data collected from the second set of distributed sources with data on transactions of the set of historical transaction data;

determining pricing data corresponding to the specified vehicle configuration using the enhanced set of historical transaction records, wherein the pricing data includes sustainable price information including a price for the vehicle which a dealer can maintain over time while earning a specified return-on-investment,

wherein the sustainable price information is determined based historical sale prices associated with the specified vehicle configuration and dealer cost associated with the specified vehicle configuration,

wherein the dealer cost is an estimated actual dealer cost associated with the specific vehicle configuration,

wherein the estimated actual dealer cost is determined by obtaining data on a set of dealers, the data comprising information on a payout program, number of vehicles sold, and historical values associated with at least one dealer cost component, the at least one dealer cost component comprises a Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) and the estimated actual dealer cost is determined by constructing a predictive model to determine an expected CSI score [x] at a particular level, determining an expected average of the expected CSI score for a current month (E[x]), determining an average CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the current month (E[b]) utilizing E[x], and adjusting a base dealer cost with E[b], thereby producing the estimated actual dealer cost;

in an online front-end process generating an interface by;

in response to a request received over a first channel specifying a vehicle attribute, generating, in real-time, the interface based on the determined in the back-end process, wherein the interface is configured to present the sustainable price information relative to the dealer cost associated with the specified vehicle configuration according to a second channel of a plurality of channels, and the interface displays the sustainable price information, including a sustainable price range including a minimum sustainable price and a maximum sustainable price, and the dealer cost along a common pricing axis in relation to a first indicator indicating an average price paid and a second indicator indicating a factory invoice price by;

applying a first set of rules to select a bin of enhanced historical transaction records the based on the specified vehicle attribute, the first set of rules selected based on the specified vehicle attribute,

selecting a second set of rules for determining the dealer cost based on the specified vehicle attribute, and

applying the selected second set of rules to the set of enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to the selected bin to generate the dealer cost; and

providing the interface through the second channel of the plurality of channels in real-time in response to the request received over the first channel.

7. The computer program product of claim 6, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

determining an average profit margin.

8. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

adjusting the average profit margin to account for a plurality of variables, including incentives, inventory levels, production levels, sales volumes, or a combination thereof.

9. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the instructions are further translatable by the at least one processor to perform:

determining historical sustainable levels for the specific vehicle configuration wherein the historical sustainable levels include one or more historical sustainable prices, each historical sustainable price is a price for the vehicle which a dealer could maintain over time while earning a specified return-on-investment determined at a particular time.

10. The computer program product of claim 6, further comprising:

third instructions translatable by an origin server to populate a web cache at each of the one or more server farms with data, and the interface is generated at the one or more server farms based on the data in the web cache at the one or more server farms.

11. A method, comprising:

at a vehicle data system implemented on one or more computing devices communicatively coupled to a network;

in a back-end process;

obtaining a set of historical transaction data associated with a specified vehicle configuration from a first set of distributed sources, where the set of historical transaction data comprises data on transactions associated with vehicles of the specified vehicle configuration;

enhancing the set of historical transaction records with additional vehicle data collected from a second set of distributed sources by VIN by correlating the additional vehicle data collected from the second set of distributed sources with data on transactions of the set of historical transaction data;

determining pricing data corresponding to the specified vehicle configuration using the enhanced set of historical transaction records, wherein the pricing data includes sustainable price information including a price for the vehicle which a dealer can maintain over time while earning a specified return-on-investment,

wherein the sustainable price information is determined based historical sale prices associated with the specified vehicle configuration and dealer cost associated with the specified vehicle configuration,

wherein the dealer cost is an estimated actual dealer cost,

wherein the estimated actual dealer cost is determined by obtaining data on a set of dealers, the data comprising information on a payout program, number of vehicles sold, and historical values associated with at least one dealer cost component, the at least one dealer cost component comprises a Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) and the estimated actual dealer cost is determined by constructing a predictive model to determine an expected CSI score [x] at a particular level, determining an expected average of the expected CSI score for a current month (E[x]), determining an average CSI bonus payout per vehicle for the current month (E[b]) utilizing E[x], and adjusting a base dealer cost with E[b], thereby producing the estimated actual dealer cost;

in an online front-end process generating an interface by;

in response to a request received over a first channel specifying a vehicle attribute, generating, in real-time, the interface based on the determined in the back-end process, wherein the interface is configured to present the sustainable price information relative to the dealer cost associated with the specified vehicle configuration according to a second channel of a plurality of channels, and the interface displays the sustainable price information, including a sustainable price range including a minimum sustainable price and a maximum sustainable price, and the dealer cost along a common pricing axis in relation to a first indicator indicating an average price paid and a second indicator indicating a factory invoice price by;

applying a first set of rules to select a bin of enhanced historical transaction records the based on the specified vehicle attribute, the first set of rules selected based on the specified vehicle attribute,

selecting a second set of rules for determining the dealer cost based on the specified vehicle attribute, and

applying the selected second set of rules to the set of enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to the selected bin to generate the dealer cost; and

providing the interface through a second channel of the plurality of channels in real-time in response to the request received over the first channel.

12. The method according to claim 11, further comprising determining an average profit margin.

13. The method according to claim 12, further comprising adjusting the average profit margin to account for a plurality of variables, including incentives, inventory levels, production levels, sales volumes, or a combination thereof.

14. The method of claim 11, further comprising:

populating a web cache at each of the one or more server farms with data from an origin server, and the interface is generated at the one or more server farms based on the data in the web cache at the one or more server farms.