Computerized system for simulating the likelihood of technology change incidents

• US 10,430,743 B2
• Filed: 02/24/2016
• Issued: 10/01/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 02/24/2016
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Bank of America Corp.
• Original Assignee: Bank of America Corp.
• Inventors: Kephart, Aaron D., Howie, Charles C., Glover, DeAundra K.
• Primary Examiner(s): Zhen, Li B.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Gardner, Scott R
• Application Number:
  US15/052,602
• Publication Number:
  US 20170243131A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,315 Days
• Field of Search: 705 737, 705 728
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/00 Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/215 Improving data quality; Data cleansing, e.g. de-duplication, removing invalid entries or correcting typographical errors
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/00 Machine learning
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0637 Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals

Abstract

Embodiments of the present invention relate to apparatuses, systems, methods and computer program products for a technology configuration system. Specifically, the system typically provides operational data processing of a plurality of records associated with information technology operational activities, for dynamic transformation of data and evaluation of interdependencies of technology resources. In other aspects, the system typically provides technical language processing of the plurality of records for transforming technical and descriptive data, and constructing categorical activity records. The system may be configured to achieve significant reduction in memory storage and processing requirements by performing categorical data encoding of the plurality of records. The system may employ a dynamic categorical data decoding process, which delivers a reduction in processing time when the encoded records are decoded for evaluating the exposure of technology change events to technology incidents and modifying such technology change events.

Claims

1. A computerized system for simulating the likelihood of technology change incidents, comprising:

a computer apparatus including a processor, a memory, and a network communication device; and

a technology change evaluation module stored in the memory, executable by the processor, and configured for;

determining a decoding divisor;

retrieving a plurality of encoded records regarding a plurality of historic information technology operational activities from an activity record database based on a division operation of the decoding divisor and one or more encoded words of each encoded record of the plurality of encoded records, wherein each encoded word is associated with a technology operational activity and is divisible by the decoding divisor, wherein the division operation yields a remainder of zero;

decoding, using a categorical data decoding algorithm, each of the plurality of encoded records into a plurality of decoded records, each of the decoded records comprising a binary value in each of a plurality of data fields, the plurality of data fields including a first data field defining whether one of the historic information technology operational activities is associated with a prior technology incident;

transforming, for each decoded record of the decoded records, the binary value associated with at least one data field of the plurality of data fields into technology identifier data;

processing the decoded records using a technology incident predictive model to produce an incident predictive algorithm for predicting whether a technology change event will cause a technology incident, the incident predictive algorithm defining a subset of the data fields and a weight factor for each data field in the subset of the data fields;

retrieving a plurality of change records, each change record being related to one of a plurality of future technology change events, each change record comprising change information related to one or more of the plurality of data fields, the change records comprising timing information related to the future technology change events;

evaluating the change information in the change records using the incident predictive algorithm to determine a likelihood that each of the future technology change events will cause a future technology incident;

determining an impact of each future technology incident;

determining an exposure index for each of the plurality of future technology change events based on (i) determining a likelihood that each of the future technology change events will cause a future technology incident and (ii) determining an impact of each future technology incident;

aggregating the exposure indices of the plurality of future technology change events to determine an aggregate exposure index for each of a plurality of time periods based on the timing information related to the future technology change events;

receiving a request from a user computing device to simulate a change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

determining a simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods based on (i) the exposure indices for each of the plurality of future technology change events and (ii) the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

determining whether the simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods exceeds a predefined aggregate exposure level threshold;

prompting the user computing device to display a graphical user interface, the graphical user interface being configured to display information regarding whether the simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods exceeds the predefined aggregate exposure level threshold.

2. The computerized system according to claim 1, wherein:

the incident predictive algorithm defines an aggregate weight factor for the subset of the data fields;

the plurality of decoded records are associated with a first time period;

the technology change evaluation module is configured for incrementally altering the first time period to identify a second time period that correlates with the first data field, the second time period being associated with a subset of the plurality of decoded records;

processing the decoded records using the technology incident predictive model to produce the incident predictive algorithm comprises;

processing the subset of the plurality of decoded records using the technology incident predictive model to produce the incident predictive algorithm;

performing a field selection test to identify the subset of the data fields, the subset of the data fields correlating with the first data field;

performing a field weight test to identify the weight factor for each data field in the subset of data fields, each weight factor correlating with the first data field; and

performing an aggregate weight test to identify the aggregate weight factor for the subset of the data fields, the aggregate weight factor correlating with the first data field.

3. The computerized system according to claim 1, wherein the technology change evaluation module is configured for:

identifying historic technology change events having characteristics in common with the future technology change event;

determining a most frequent impact of prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events;

wherein the impact of the future technology incident is the most frequent impact of the prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events.

4. The computerized system according to claim 1, wherein the technology change evaluation module is configured for:

identifying historic technology change events having characteristics in common with the future technology change event;

determining a highest impact of prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events;

wherein the impact of the future technology incident is the highest impact of the prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events.

5. The computerized system according to claim 1, wherein the technology change evaluation module is configured for:

receiving a user request via the graphical user interface to implement the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

automatically altering the timing information contained in the change records related to the future technology change events based on the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events.

6. The computerized system according to claim 1, wherein the technology change evaluation module is configured for:

receiving a user selection via the graphical user interface of a first time period;

based on the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events, determining one or more first future technology change events simulated to occur during the first time period;

determining that the exposure index of one or more of the first future technology change events exceeds a predefined exposure level threshold; and

prompting the user computing device to display via the graphical user interface information indicating that the exposure index of the one or more first future technology change events exceeds the predefined exposure level threshold.

7. A computer program product for simulating the likelihood of technology change incidents, comprising a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having computer-executable instructions for:

determining a decoding divisor;

retrieving a plurality of encoded records regarding a plurality of historic information technology operational activities from an activity record database based on a division operation of the decoding divisor and one or more encoded words of each encoded record of the plurality of encoded records, wherein each encoded word is associated with a technology operational activity and is divisible by the decoding divisor, wherein the division operation yields a remainder of zero;

decoding, using a categorical data decoding algorithm, each of the plurality of encoded records into a plurality of decoded records, each of the decoded records comprising a binary value in each of a plurality of data fields, the plurality of data fields including a first data field defining whether one of the historic information technology operational activities is associated with a prior technology incident;

transforming, for each decoded record of the decoded records, the binary value associated with at least one data field of the plurality of data fields into technology identifier data;

processing the decoded records using a technology incident predictive model to produce an incident predictive algorithm for predicting whether a technology change event will cause a technology incident, the incident predictive algorithm defining a subset of the data fields and a weight factor for each data field in the subset of the data fields;

retrieving a plurality of change records, each change record being related to one of a plurality of future technology change events, each change record comprising change information related to one or more of the plurality of data fields, the change records comprising timing information related to the future technology change events;

evaluating the change information in the change records using the incident predictive algorithm to determine a likelihood that each of the future technology change events will cause a future technology incident;

determining an impact of each future technology incident;

determining an exposure index for each of the plurality of future technology change events based on (i) determining a likelihood that each of the future technology change events will cause a future technology incident and (ii) determining an impact of each future technology incident;

aggregating the exposure indices of the plurality of future technology change events to determine an aggregate exposure index for each of a plurality of time periods based on the timing information related to the future technology change events;

receiving a request from a user computing device to simulate a change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

determining a simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods based on (i) the exposure indices for each of the plurality of future technology change events and (ii) the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

determining whether the simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods exceeds a predefined aggregate exposure level threshold;

prompting the user computing device to display a graphical user interface, the graphical user interface being configured to display information regarding whether the simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods exceeds the predefined aggregate exposure level threshold.

8. The computer program product according to claim 7, wherein:

the incident predictive algorithm defines an aggregate weight factor for the subset of the data fields;

the plurality of decoded records are associated with a first time period;

the non-transitory computer-readable storage medium has computer-executable instructions for incrementally altering the first time period to identify a second time period that correlates with the first data field, the second time period being associated with a subset of the plurality of decoded records;

processing the decoded records using the technology incident predictive model to produce the incident predictive algorithm comprises;

processing the subset of the plurality of decoded records using the technology incident predictive model to produce the incident predictive algorithm;

performing a field selection test to identify the subset of the data fields, the subset of the data fields correlating with the first data field;

performing a field weight test to identify the weight factor for each data field in the subset of data fields, each weight factor correlating with the first data field; and

performing an aggregate weight test to identify the aggregate weight factor for the subset of the data fields, the aggregate weight factor correlating with the first data field.

9. The computer program product according to claim 7, wherein the non-transitory computer-readable storage medium has computer-executable instructions for:

identifying historic technology change events having characteristics in common with the future technology change event;

determining a most frequent impact of prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events;

wherein the impact of the future technology incident is the most frequent impact of the prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events.

10. The computer program product according to claim 7, wherein the non-transitory computer-readable storage medium has computer-executable instructions for:

identifying historic technology change events having characteristics in common with the future technology change event;

determining a highest impact of prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events;

wherein the impact of the future technology incident is the highest impact of the prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events.

11. The computer program product according to claim 7, wherein the non-transitory computer-readable storage medium has computer-executable instructions for:

receiving a user request via the graphical user interface to implement the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

automatically altering the timing information contained in the change records related to the future technology change events based on the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events.

12. The computer program product according to claim 7, wherein the non-transitory computer-readable storage medium has computer-executable instructions for:

receiving a user selection via the graphical user interface of a first time period;

based on the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events, determining one or more first future technology change events simulated to occur during the first time period;

determining that the exposure index of one or more of the first future technology change events exceeds a predefined exposure level threshold; and

prompting the user computing device to display via the graphical user interface information indicating that the exposure index of the one or more first future technology change events exceeds the predefined exposure level threshold.

13. A computerized method for simulating the likelihood of technology change incidents, comprising:

determining, via a computer processor, a decoding divisor;

retrieving, via a computer processor, a plurality of encoded records regarding a plurality of historic information technology operational activities from an activity record database based on a division operation of the decoding divisor and one or more encoded words of each encoded record of the plurality of encoded records, wherein each encoded word is associated with a technology operational activity and is divisible by the decoding divisor, wherein the division operation yields a remainder of zero;

decoding, via a computer processor, using a categorical data decoding algorithm, each of the plurality of encoded records into a plurality of decoded records, each of the decoded records comprising a binary value in each of a plurality of data fields, the plurality of data fields including a first data field defining whether one of the historic information technology operational activities is associated with a prior technology incident;

transforming, via a computer processor, for each decoded record of the decoded records, the binary value associated with at least one data field of the plurality of data fields into technology identifier data;

processing, via a computer processor, the decoded records using a technology incident predictive model to produce an incident predictive algorithm for predicting whether a technology change event will cause a technology incident, the incident predictive algorithm defining a subset of the data fields and a weight factor for each data field in the subset of the data fields;

retrieving, via a computer processor, a plurality of change records, each change record being related to one of a plurality of future technology change events, each change record comprising change information related to one or more of the plurality of data fields, the change records comprising timing information related to the future technology change events;

evaluating, via a computer processor, the change information in the change records using the incident predictive algorithm to determine a likelihood that each of the future technology change events will cause a future technology incident;

determining, via a computer processor, an impact of each future technology incident;

determining, via a computer processor, an exposure index for each of the plurality of future technology change events based on (i) determining a likelihood that each of the future technology change events will cause a future technology incident and (ii) determining an impact of each future technology incident;

aggregating, via a computer processor, the exposure indices of the plurality of future technology change events to determine an aggregate exposure index for each of a plurality of time periods based on the timing information related to the future technology change events;

receiving, via a computer processor, a request from a user computing device to simulate a change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

determining, via a computer processor, a simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods based on (i) the exposure indices for each of the plurality of future technology change events and (ii) the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

determining, via a computer processor, whether the simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods exceeds a predefined aggregate exposure level threshold;

prompting, via a computer processor, the user computing device to display a graphical user interface, the graphical user interface being configured to display information regarding whether the simulated aggregate exposure index for each of the plurality of time periods exceeds the predefined aggregate exposure level threshold.

14. The computerized method according to claim 13, wherein:

the incident predictive algorithm defines an aggregate weight factor for the subset of the data fields;

the plurality of decoded records are associated with a first time period;

the computerized method comprises incrementally altering the first time period to identify a second time period that correlates with the first data field, the second time period being associated with a subset of the plurality of decoded records;

processing the decoded records using the technology incident predictive model to produce the incident predictive algorithm comprises;

processing the subset of the plurality of decoded records using the technology incident predictive model to produce the incident predictive algorithm;

performing a field selection test to identify the subset of the data fields, the subset of the data fields correlating with the first data field;

performing a field weight test to identify the weight factor for each data field in the subset of data fields, each weight factor correlating with the first data field; and

performing an aggregate weight test to identify the aggregate weight factor for the subset of the data fields, the aggregate weight factor correlating with the first data field.

15. The computerized method according to claim 13, comprising:

identifying historic technology change events having characteristics in common with the future technology change event;

determining a most frequent impact of prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events;

wherein the impact of the future technology incident is the most frequent impact of the prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events.

16. The computerized method according to claim 13, comprising:

identifying historic technology change events having characteristics in common with the future technology change event;

determining a highest impact of prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events;

wherein the impact of the future technology incident is the highest impact of the prior technology incidents associated with the historic technology change events.

17. The computerized method according to claim 13, comprising:

receiving a user request via the graphical user interface to implement the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events;

automatically altering the timing information contained in the change records related to the future technology change events based on the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events.

18. The computerized method according to claim 13, comprising:

receiving a user selection via the graphical user interface of a first time period;

based on the change to the timing information related to the future technology change events, determining one or more first future technology change events simulated to occur during the first time period;

determining that the exposure index of one or more of the first future technology change events exceeds a predefined exposure level threshold; and

prompting the user computing device to display via the graphical user interface information indicating that the exposure index of the one or more first future technology change events exceeds the predefined exposure level threshold.