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System, method and computer program for improved forecasting residual values of a durable good over time

  • US 10,430,814 B2
  • Filed: 10/11/2017
  • Issued: 10/01/2019
  • Est. Priority Date: 08/15/2012
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A method, comprising:

  • collecting used market data, non-industry-specific data, and industry-specific data from disparate data sources into a database, the collecting performed simultaneously, continuously, or periodically by a system communicatively connected to the disparate data sources over a network, the system having a processor and a non-transitory computer-readable medium;

    transforming, by the system, all or part of the used market data, the non-industry-specific data, and the industry-specific data into data representations internal to the system;

    determining, by the system using the used market data, a baseline value for an item of interest with a base configuration in an industry at an initial time point, the determining comprising taking an average of historical market values from the used market data;

    determining, by the system at the initial time point, a reference period at which the baseline value for the item of interest is adjusted;

    determining, by the system, a number of forecasts desired between the initial time point and the reference period;

    determining, by the system, a locality adjustment to the item of interest at a forecast time, the locality adjustment representing a ratio of an average cost of items in the industry in a locality at the forecast time over a local cost of items in the industry across all localities at the forecast time;

    determining, by the system, a locality-adjusted value of the item of interest as modified at the forecast time;

    constructing, by the system, competitive sets of similar items, substitute items, or a combination thereof in the industry to which the item of interest belongs;

    determining, by the system, to which one and only one of the competitive sets the item of interest belongs;

    determining, by the system using the non-industry-specific data, a macroeconomic factor by taking a set of macroeconomic variables over a plurality of industries, the set of macroeconomic variables representing macroeconomic features;

    determining, by the system using the industry-specific data, a microeconomic factor by taking a linear combination of observed or forecasted values of microeconomic variables specific to the industry to which the item of interest belongs;

    generating, by the system at the forecast time, a residual value for the item of interest, the generating utilizing the baseline value for the item of interest at the initial time point determined by the system using the used market data, the macroeconomic factor determined by the system using the non-industry-specific data, and the microeconomic factor determined by the system using the industry-specific data;

    storing the residual value for the item of interest in a data storage device; and

    providing the residual value forecast for the item of interest for presentation on a client device over the network.

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