Method for integrating individual load forecasts into a composite load forecast to present a comprehensive, synchronized and harmonized load forecast

• US 10,488,829 B2
• Filed: 11/27/2017
• Issued: 11/26/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 07/02/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: General Electric Technology GmbH (GE Vernova, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: General Electric Technology GmbH (GE Vernova, Inc.)
• Inventors: Sun, David, Cheung, Kwok, Chung, Kenneth, McKeag, Tory
• Primary Examiner(s): Norton, Jennifer L
• Application Number:
  US15/822,291
• Publication Number:
  US 20180088539A1
• Time in Patent Office: 729 Days
• Field of Search: None
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 13/02 electric
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

A method is provided for merging different load forecasts for power grid centers. Area load forecasts are accepted from load forecast engines. A relational database saves load forecast engine data. A comprehensive operating plan integrates individual load forecasts into a composite load forecast to present a comprehensive, synchronized and harmonized load forecast.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

integrating, by a system comprising a processor, area load forecasts that forecast conditions associated with a power grid into a composite load forecast, wherein the area load forecasts are respectively associated with multi-stage engines that utilize different forecast time periods and include at least some overlapping forecast time periods, and wherein the integrating comprises merging overlapping portions of the area load forecasts based upon a weighted average of values in the overlapping portions according to respective weighting factors associated with the area load forecasts; and

executing, by the system via the multi-stage engines, a comprehensive operating plan based on the composite load forecast to dispatch resources of the power grid to generate power.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating, by the system based on the composite load forecast, the comprehensive operating plan that synchronizes at least one of scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or the dispatch of the resources.

3. The method of claim 2, further comprising:

generating, by the system based on the comprehensive operating plan, a unified scheduling framework comprising data that facilitates coordination of a series of resource scheduling processes.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

smoothing, by the system, a portion of the composite load forecast at a transitional boundary between two area load forecasts of the area load forecasts.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating, by the system, an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine of the multi-stage engines based on a most recent complete composite load forecast.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating, by the system, an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine based on a defined forecast time period associated with the multi-stage engine.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the integrating is based on a criterion associated with at least one of scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or the dispatch of the resources associated with the multi-stage engines.

8. A system, comprising:

a memory to store executable instructions; and

a processor, coupled to the memory, that executes the executable instructions to at least;

integrate area load forecasts that forecast conditions associated with a power grid into a composite load forecast, wherein the area load forecasts are respectively associated with multi-stage engines of a set of multi-stage engines that utilize different forecast time periods and include at least some overlapping forecast time periods, and wherein integration of the area load forecasts comprises a merge of overlapping portions of the area load forecasts based upon a weighted average of values in the overlapping portions according to respective weighting factors associated with the area load forecasts; and

execute, via the set of multi-stage engines, a comprehensive operating plan based on the composite load forecast to dispatch resources of the power grid to generate power.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the processor further executes the executable instructions to generate, based on the composite load forecast, the comprehensive operating plan that synchronizes at least one of scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or the dispatch of the resources.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the processor further executes the executable instructions to generate, based on the comprehensive operating plan, a unified scheduling framework comprising data that facilitates coordination of a series of resource scheduling processes.

11. The system of claim 8, wherein the processor further executes the executable instructions to smooth a portion of the composite load forecast at a transitional boundary between two area load forecasts of the area load forecasts.

12. The system of claim 8, wherein the processor further executes the executable instructions to generate an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine of the engines based on an updated complete composite load forecast.

13. The system of claim 8, wherein the processor further executes the executable instructions to generate an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine based on a defined forecast time period associated with the multi-stage engine.

14. The system of claim 8, wherein the integration of the area load forecasts is based on a criterion associated with at least one of scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or the dispatch of the resources associated with the set of engines.

15. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having instructions stored thereon that, in response to execution by a processor performs operations comprising:

integrating area load forecasts that forecast conditions associated with a power grid into a composite load forecast, wherein the area load forecasts are associated with a group of multi-stage engines that utilize different forecast time periods and include at least some overlapping forecast time periods, and wherein the integrating comprises merging overlapping portions of the area load forecasts based upon a weighted average of values in the overlapping portions according to respective weighting factors associated with the area load forecasts; and

executing, via the group of multi-stage engines, a comprehensive operating plan based on the composite load forecast to dispatch resources of the power grid to generate power.

16. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 15, the operations further comprising:

generating, based on the composite load forecast, the comprehensive operating plan that synchronizes at least one of scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or the dispatch of the resources.

17. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 16, the operations further comprising:

generating, based on the comprehensive operating plan, a unified scheduling framework comprising data that facilitates coordination of a series of resource scheduling processes.

18. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 15, the operations further comprising:

smoothing a portion of the composite load forecast at a transitional boundary between two area load forecasts of the area load forecasts.

19. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 15, the operations further comprising:

generating an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine of the multi-stage engines based on a most recent complete composite load forecast.

20. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 15, the operations further comprising:

generating an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine based on a defined forecast time period associated with the multi-stage engine.