System and method for decentralized energy production

• US 10,504,195 B2
• Filed: 11/13/2017
• Issued: 12/10/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 11/13/2017
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories, Inc. (Mitsubishi Electric Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories, Inc. (Mitsubishi Electric Corporation)
• Inventors: Sun, Hongbo, Keerthisinghe, Chanaka
• Primary Examiner(s): Connolly, Mark A
• Application Number:
  US15/810,262
• Publication Number:
  US 20190147551A1
• Time in Patent Office: 757 Days
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 13/02 electric
• CPC Class Codes: G05F 1/66 Regulating electric power
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 3/02 Neural networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/008 involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/10 Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/14 Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards

Abstract

A power generation system of a power producer for generating and providing electricity to an electric power system operated by an independent system operator (ISO). A processor determines a residual demand curve, at each time step of a future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of a demanded energy for that time step. Determine a residual reserve curve at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of a reserved energy for that time step. Determine a schedule of operations of a set of generators for each time step of the future energy generation period, by the power producer. A controller to control the set of generators to produce energy according to the schedule of operations, when the receiver receives an acceptance of the schedule of operations from the ISO.

Claims

1. A power generation system of a power producer for generating and providing electricity to an electric power system operated by an independent system operator (ISO), wherein multiple power producers supply the electricity to the electric power system and multiple power consumers demand the electricity from the electric power system, the power generation system of the power producer comprising:

a set of generators of the power producer;

a receiver to receive a forecast of a demanded energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for a future energy generation period, and to receive a forecast of a reserved energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for the future energy generation period;

a processor in communication with the receiver, is configured to

determine a residual demand curve, at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the demanded energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the demanded energy for each time step, wherein the residual demand curve includes pluralities of sections, such that a section includes a most likely quantity of the demanded energy for the power producer;

determine a residual reserve curve at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the reserved energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the reserved energy for each time step, wherein the residual reserve curve includes pluralities of sections, such that a section includes a most likely quantity of the reserved energy for the power producer;

determine a schedule of operations of the set of generators for each time step of the future energy generation period, by optimizing a value function of a difference between a revenue from generating the demanded energy and the reserved energy, and a cost of producing the generated energy, by the power producer; and

a controller to control the set of generators to produce energy according to the schedule of operations, when the receiver receives an acceptance of the schedule of operations from the ISO.

2. The power generation system of claim 1, wherein the residual demand curve for each time step is determined by subtracting a combined demanded energy supply offer curve from other power producers of the electric power system from the received forecast of the demanded energy.

3. The power generation system of claim 2, wherein the combined demanded energy supply offer curve for each time step for the future energy generation period, is determined by

access a memory by the processor, wherein the memory has stored thereon a set of neural networks trained using historical data of demanded energy supply offer curves from other power producers of the electric power system and historical data of demanded energy and market clearing demand prices of the electric power system, such that each trained neural network output corresponds to a range of market clearing demand prices;

select a neural network from the ranges of market clearing demand prices of the set of stored neural networks, based on a most likely market clearing demand price estimated from the received forecast of the demanded energy of the electric power system; and

produce the combined demanded energy supply offer curve using the selected neural network, based on an input of the received forecast of the demanded energy of the electric power system, and the most likely market clearing demand price.

4. The power generation system of claim 3, wherein the most likely market clearing demand price of the electric power system, is determined by

access the memory by the processor, wherein the memory has stored thereon a neural network trained using historical data of cleared demanded energy and market clearing demand prices of the electric power system;

and

produce the most likely market clearing demand price of the electric power system using the neural network, based on an input of the received forecast of the demanded energy of the electric power system and a stored demanded energy and a stored market clearing demand price of the electric power system for the current energy generation period in the memory.

5. The power generation system of claim 1, wherein the residual reserve curve for each time step is determined by subtracting a combined reserved energy supply offer curve from other power producers of the electric power system from the received forecast of the reserved energy.

6. The power generation system of claim 5, wherein the combined reserved energy supply offer curve for each time step for the future energy generation period, is determined by

access a memory, by the processor, wherein the memory has stored thereon a set of neural networks trained using historical data of reserved energy supply offer curves from other power producers of the electric power system and historical data of reserved energy and market clearing reserve prices of the electric power system, such that each trained neural network output corresponds to a range of market clearing reserve prices;

select a neural network from the ranges of market clearing reserve prices of the set of stored neural networks, based on a most likely market clearing reserve price estimated from the received forecast of the reserved energy of the electric power system; and

produce the combined reserved energy supply offer curve using the selected neural network, based on an input of the received forecast of the reserved energy of the electric power system, and the most likely market clearing reserve price.

7. The power generation system of claim 6, wherein the most likely market clearing reserve price of the electric power system, is determined by

access the memory by the processor, wherein the memory has stored thereon a neural network trained using historical data of cleared reserved energy and market clearing reserve prices of the electric power system;

and

produce the most likely market clearing reserve price of the electric power system using the neural network, based on an input of the received forecast of the reserved energy of the electric power system, and a stored reserved energy and a stored market clearing reserve price of the electric power system for the current energy generation period in the memory.

8. The power generation system of claim 1, further comprising:

determining a most likely demanded energy quantity, a most likely reserved energy quantity, and a most likely reserve used ratio for the power producer for each time step of the future energy generation period, by

access the memory by the processor, wherein the memory has stored thereon a neural network trained using historical data of the demanded energy, the reserved energy, a market clearing demand price and a market clearing reserve price for the electric power system and historical data of the demanded energy, the reserved energy and the reserve used ratio for the power producer; and

produce the most likely demanded energy quantity, the most likely reserved energy quantity and the most likely reserve used ratio, using the neural network, based on an input of the received forecasts of the demanded energy and the reserved energy for the electric power system, the most likely market clearing demand price and the most likely market clearing reserve price for the electric power system.

9. The power generation system of claim 8, wherein the sections of the residual demand curve and the sections of the residual reserve curve for each time step of the future energy generation period are reduced to a set of combinations of a state of likely demanded energy for the power producer, and a state of likely reserved energy for the power producer,

wherein the state of likely demanded energy is one of demanded energy boundary values for the sections of the residual demand curve within a predetermined distance from the most likely demanded energy quantity for that time step, and

wherein the state of likely reserved energy is one of reserved energy boundary values for the sections of the residual reserve curve sections within a predetermined distance from the most likely reserved energy quantity for that time step.

10. The power generation system of claim 9, wherein the processor determines, for each combination of the state of likely demanded energy, and the state of likely reserved energy for each time step, a set of combinations of states of the generators producing the required quantities of demanded energy and reserved energy for that time step while satisfying constraints on the operation of the generators.

11. The power generation system of claim 10, wherein the determination is executed for each time step of the future generation period in ascending order, when the initial state of demanded energy, the initial state of reserved energy, and the initial states of the generators at the beginning of future generation period are given.

12. The power generation system of claim 10, wherein the determination is executed for each time step of the future generation period in descending order, when the desired state of demanded energy, the desired state of reserved energy, and the desired states of the generators at the end of future generation period are given.

13. The power generation system of claim 10, wherein the processor selects a single combination from the set of combinations of the state of likely demanded energy, the state of likely reserved energy, and the states of generators for each time step to produce a sequence of combinations of the states of the likely demanded energy, the likely reserved energy and the generators maximizing the value function for the entire future energy generation period and produces the schedule of operations according to the sequence of combinations of the states of the generators.

14. The power generation system of claim 10, wherein the processor selects a single combination from the set of combinations of the state of likely demanded energy, the state of likely reserved energy, and the states of the generators for each time step of a portion of the future energy generation period to produce a sequence of combinations of the state of the likely demanded energy, the state of likely reserved energy, and the state of generators maximizing the value function for the entire portion of the future energy generation period and produces the schedule of operations according to the sequence of combinations of the states of the generators.

15. The power generation system of claim 1, wherein the state of each generator includes an on/off status, a power generated level, a remaining committed time, a remaining de-committed time, a start command and a shut-down command.

16. The power generation system of claim 1, wherein the constraints on the operation of the generators include a maximum power generated limit, a minimum power generated limit, a ramp up rate, a ramp down rate, a minimum committed time and a minimum de-committed time.

17. The power generation system of claim 1, wherein the constraints on the quantities of the generated energy include a power balance equation for the demanded energy and a reserved energy used, and a maximum power generation requirement for the demanded energy and the reserved energy.

18. The power generation system of claim 1, wherein each time step is an hour of the day-ahead period.

19. An energy generation system of a power producer for generating and providing electricity to an electric power system operated by an independent system operator (ISO), wherein multiple power producers supply the electricity to the electric power system and multiple power consumers demand the electricity from the electric power system, the energy generation system of the power producer having a set of generators of the power producer, a receiver to receive a forecast of a demanded energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for a future energy generation period, and to receive a forecast of a reserved energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for the future energy generation period, and the energy generation system of the power producer comprising:

a processor in communication with the receiver, is configured to

determine a residual demand curve, at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the demanded energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the demanded energy for each time step, wherein the future energy generation period is at least a day-ahead period;

determine a residual reserve curve at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the reserved energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the reserved energy for each time step;

determine a schedule of operations of the set of generators for each time step of the future energy generation period, by optimizing a value function of a difference between a revenue from generating the demanded energy and the reserved energy, and a cost of producing the generated energy, by the power producer; and

a controller to control the set of generators to produce energy according to the schedule of operations, when the receiver receives an acceptance of the schedule of operations from the ISO.

20. The energy generation system of claim 19, wherein the residual demand curve includes pluralities of sections, such that a section includes a most likely quantity of the demanded energy for the power producer.

21. The energy generation system of claim 19, wherein the residual reserve curve includes pluralities of sections, such that a section includes a most likely quantity of the reserved energy for the power producer.

22. A power generation system of a power producer for generating and providing electricity to an electric power system operated by an independent system operator (ISO), wherein multiple power producers supply the electricity to the electric power system and multiple power consumers demand the electricity from the electric power system, the power generation system of the power producer comprising:

a set of generators of the power producer;

a receiver to receive a forecast of a demanded energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for a future energy generation period, and to receive a forecast of a reserved energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for the future energy generation period;

a processor in communication with the receiver, is configured to

determine a residual demand curve, at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the demanded energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the demanded energy for each time step, wherein the residual demand curve includes pluralities of sections, such that a section includes a most likely quantity of the demanded energy for the power producer;

determine a residual reserve curve at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the reserved energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the reserved energy for each time step, wherein the residual reserve curve includes pluralities of sections, such that a section includes a most likely quantity of the reserved energy for the power producer,

wherein the revenue for generating each quantity of the demanded energy is determined according to the residual demand curve, and the revenue for generating each quantity of the reserved energy is determined according to the residual reserve curve, wherein the cost of producing each quantity of the generated energy depends on a state of each generator of the set of generators, such that the value function optimization is subject to both constraints on an operation of the generators, and constraints on the quantities of the generated energy, as well as subject to the sections of the residual demand curve and the sections of the residual reserve curve;

determine a schedule of operations of the set of generators for each time step of the future energy generation period, by optimizing a value function of a difference between a revenue from generating the demanded energy and the reserved energy, and a cost of producing the generated energy, by the power producer; and

a controller to control the set of generators to produce energy according to the schedule of operations, when the receiver receives an acceptance of the schedule of operations from the ISO.

23. An energy generation system of a power producer for generating and providing electricity to an electric power system operated by an independent system operator (ISO), wherein multiple power producers supply the electricity to the electric power system and multiple power consumers demand the electricity from the electric power system, the energy generation system of the power producer having a set of generators of the power producer, a receiver to receive a forecast of a demanded energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for a future energy generation period, and to receive a forecast of a reserved energy quantity for the electric power system from the ISO for the future energy generation period, and the energy generation system of the power producer comprising:

a processor in communication with the receiver, is configured to

determine a residual demand curve, at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the demanded energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the demanded energy for each time step, wherein the future energy generation period is at least a day-ahead period;

determine a residual reserve curve at each time step of the future energy generation period, relating to a price and a quantity of the reserved energy for that time step, based on the received forecast of the reserved energy for each time step,

wherein the revenue for generating each quantity of the demanded energy is determined according to the residual demand curve, and the revenue for generating each quantity of the reserved energy is determined according to the residual reserve curve, wherein the cost of producing each quantity of the generated energy depends on a state of each generator of the set of generators, such that the value function optimization is subject to both constraints on an operation of the generators, and constraints on the quantities of the generated energy, as well as subject to the sections of the residual demand curve and the sections of the residual reserve curve;

determine a schedule of operations of the set of generators for each time step of the future energy generation period, by optimizing a value function of a difference between a revenue from generating the demanded energy and the reserved energy, and a cost of producing the generated energy, by the power producer; and

a controller to control the set of generators to produce energy according to the schedule of operations, when the receiver receives an acceptance of the schedule of operations from the ISO.