System and method providing early prediction and forecasting of false alarms by applying statistical inference models
First Claim
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1. A system comprising:
- a security system having a sensor that detects threats within a secured area;
a monitoring system, coupled to the security system, including memory with instructions that can be executed by a processor to collect operating parameters from the sensor, maintain a history of the operating parameters in a database, and provide access to the operating parameters by a plurality of processing applications, the plurality of processing applications comprising;
a predictive modeling application comprising;
a health prediction system that compares, via the processor, values of the operating parameters with one or more thresholds to classify the sensor as either good or bad;
a sensor false alarm prediction system that predicts false alarms in the secured area, wherein the sensor false alarm prediction system mines the operating parameters to find a rate of change of the operating parameters and changes in the operating parameters, in response to the rate of change of the operating parameters remaining constant, the predictive modeling application extrapolates the rate of change using linear regression over a time period, in response to the rate of change of the operating parameters being intermittent, the predictive modeling application extrapolates using a non-linear regression over the time period, and predicts a probability of the false alarms based upon the time period; and
a reporting system that generates, via the processor, a possible false alarm report including information from the health prediction system and the sensor false alarm prediction system and sends the possible false alarm report to an authorized human user.
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Abstract
A diagnostics and prediction system including a cloud system that continuously collects operating parameters from each of a number of environmental sensors and provides access to this data by a plurality of processing applications including (1) a predictive modeling system including (a) a health prediction system, (b) a sensor false alarm prediction system, (c) a zone false alarm prediction system and (d) a reporting system, (2) a system that diagnoses and predicts environmental hazardous areas and clusters areas based upon concentrations of CO in the site or building; and (3) a battery prediction system that predicts a battery life for the sensor.
10 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A system comprising:
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a security system having a sensor that detects threats within a secured area; a monitoring system, coupled to the security system, including memory with instructions that can be executed by a processor to collect operating parameters from the sensor, maintain a history of the operating parameters in a database, and provide access to the operating parameters by a plurality of processing applications, the plurality of processing applications comprising; a predictive modeling application comprising; a health prediction system that compares, via the processor, values of the operating parameters with one or more thresholds to classify the sensor as either good or bad; a sensor false alarm prediction system that predicts false alarms in the secured area, wherein the sensor false alarm prediction system mines the operating parameters to find a rate of change of the operating parameters and changes in the operating parameters, in response to the rate of change of the operating parameters remaining constant, the predictive modeling application extrapolates the rate of change using linear regression over a time period, in response to the rate of change of the operating parameters being intermittent, the predictive modeling application extrapolates using a non-linear regression over the time period, and predicts a probability of the false alarms based upon the time period; and a reporting system that generates, via the processor, a possible false alarm report including information from the health prediction system and the sensor false alarm prediction system and sends the possible false alarm report to an authorized human user. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5)
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6. A system comprising:
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a security system that protects a secured geographic area; a first sensor that detects environmental threats within the secured geographic area; a memory that saves operating parameters from the first sensor; and a processor that analyzes the operating parameters, generates a probability report of a false alarm within X days based upon determining a rate of change over a time period in the operating parameters and extrapolates the rate of change using linear regression over the X days in response to an environment of the first sensor remaining constant and the rate of change of the operating parameters remaining constant and extrapolates the rate of change using non-linear regression over the X days in response to the rate of change of the operating parameters being intermittent, and sends the probability report to an authorized human user of the security system. - View Dependent Claims (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
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15. A system comprising:
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a security system that protects a secured geographic area; a first sensor that detects environmental threats within the secured geographic area; and a monitoring system embodied as a set of steps executed on a processor, wherein the monitoring system is coupled to the security system, wherein the monitoring system collects operating parameters from the first sensor, maintains a history of the operating parameters in a database, and provide access to the operating parameters by a plurality of processing applications, and wherein the plurality of processing applications analyze the operating parameters, generate a probability report of a false alarm within X days based upon determining a rate of change over a time period in the operating parameters and in response to an environment of the first sensor remaining constant and the rate of change remaining constant extrapolating the rate of change using linear regression over the X days and in response to the rate of change being intermittent, extrapolating the rate of change using a least square method, and send the probability report to a human user of the security system. - View Dependent Claims (16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
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Specification