Building risk analysis system with risk combination for multiple threats

• US 10,559,181 B2
• Filed: 09/26/2018
• Issued: 02/11/2020
• Est. Priority Date: 09/27/2017
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Tyco Fire & Security GmbH (Johnson Controls International plc)
• Original Assignee: Johnson Controls Technology Company (Johnson Controls International plc)
• Inventors: Pourmohammad, Sajjad, Park, Youngchoon, Sinha, Sudhi R.
• Primary Examiner(s): Girma, Fekadeselassie
• Application Number:
  US16/143,282
• Publication Number:
  US 20190096213A1
• Time in Patent Office: 503 Days
• Field of Search: None
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 40/30 Semantic analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/00 Machine learning
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/20 Ensemble learning
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/022 Knowledge engineering; Knowledge acquisition
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/067 Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/163 Real estate management
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 19/00 Alarms responsive to two or more different undesired or abnormal conditions, e.g. burglary and fire, abnormal temperature and abnormal rate of flow
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 21/02 Alarms for ensuring the safety of persons
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 21/10 responsive to calamitous events, e.g. tornados or earthquakes
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 21/18 Status alarms G08B21/02 takes precedence
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 21/182 Level alarms, e.g. alarms responsive to variables exceeding a threshold
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 23/00 Alarms responsive to unspecified undesired or abnormal conditions
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 25/10 using wireless transmission systems G08B25/009 takes precedence
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 31/00 Predictive alarm systems characterised by extrapolation or other computation using updated historic data
• CPC Class Codes: H04W 4/021 Services related to particular areas, e.g. point of interest [POI] services, venue services or geofences

Abstract

A building management system includes one or more computer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to receive a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset and determine whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat. The instructions cause the one or more processors to determine a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat and determine the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat.

Claims

1. A building management system comprising:

one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to;

receive a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

determine whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determine a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat; and

determine the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to determine the first value by;

updating a parameter value of a threat severity parameter for the first threat based on the correlation of the first threat and the second threat;

generating a first risk score for the first threat based on a risk model and the parameter value;

generating a second risk score for the second threat based on the risk model; and

selecting one of the first risk score and the second risk score by comparing a value of the first risk score to the second risk score, wherein a selected risk score comprises a value representing a greatest level of risk.

2. The building management system of claim 1, wherein the second threat is a second weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat.

3. The building management system of claim 1, wherein the second threat is a non-weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat, wherein the first threat event is a weather threat event.

4. The building management system of claim 1, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to:

determine a third value by determining a p-norm with the first risk score and the second risk score.

5. The building management system of claim 4, wherein the p-norm is at least one of a 2-norm or an infinity-norm.

6. The building management system of claim 1, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to:

receive a first set of weather threat data for weather associated with the asset;

store the first set of weather threat data in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media;

generate, based on the first set of weather threat data stored in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media, normal weather condition rules, wherein the normal weather condition rules indicate an expected weather condition;

receive a first weather threat;

determine, based on the normal weather condition rules, whether first weather threat indicates the expected weather condition; and

generate the risk score based on the first weather threat, wherein generating the risk score comprises generating a first weather value for the risk score in response to a determination that the first weather threat indicates the expected weather condition and generating a second weather value for the risk score in response to a determination that the first weather threat indicates a weather condition that is not the expected weather condition, wherein the second weather value indicates a greater level of risk than the first weather value.

7. The building management system of claim 6, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise an upper condition threshold;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to;

determine whether an environmental condition of the first weather threat is greater than the upper condition threshold;

generate the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is greater than the upper condition threshold; and

generate the risk score to be the first weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is not greater than the upper condition threshold.

8. The building management system of claim 7, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise a lower condition threshold;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to;

determine whether the environmental condition of the first weather threat is less than the lower condition threshold;

generate the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is less than the lower condition threshold; and

generate the risk score to be the first weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is not less than the lower condition threshold.

9. The building management system of claim 6, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise an upper risk score threshold;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to generate the risk score by;

generating a third weather value for the first weather threat based on the risk model;

determining whether the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold;

generating the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold, wherein the second weather value is greater than the first weather value and the third weather value; and

generating the risk score to be the first weather risk score value in response to determining that the third weather value is not greater than the upper risk score threshold.

10. The building management system of claim 9, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to execute the instructions to generate the risk score for the asset by generating the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold by multiplying the third weather value with a multiplier, wherein the multiplier is greater than one.

11. The building management system of claim 10, wherein a value of the multiplier is based on a frequency at which a type of the first weather threat occurs;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to;

determine the frequency at which the type of the first weather threat occurs based on the first set of weather threat data stored in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media; and

generate the value for the multiplier based on the frequency at which the type of the first weather threat occurs.

12. A method for risk analysis, the method comprising:

receiving a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

determining whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determining a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determining the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat; and

determining an asset-threat risk score for the first threat and the asset based on;

a vulnerability parameter associated with the asset;

an asset cost parameter associated with the asset;

a severity associated with the first threat; and

a geographic distance between the asset and the first threat.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the second threat is a non-weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat, wherein the first threat is a weather threat event.

14. The method of claim 12, wherein determining the first value comprises:

determining a first risk score for the first threat based on a risk model;

determining a second risk score for the second threat based on the risk model; and

generating the risk score based on the first risk score and the second risk score.

15. The method of claim 12, wherein determining the first value comprises:

updating a parameter value of a threat severity parameter for the first threat based on the correlation of the first threat and the second threat;

generating a first risk score for the first threat based on a risk model and the parameter value;

generating a second risk score for the second threat based on the risk model; and

selecting one of the first risk score and the second risk score by comparing a value of the first risk score to the second risk score, wherein a selected risk score comprises a value representing a greatest level of risk.

16. The method of claim 12, further comprising:

generating a first risk score based on the first threat;

generating a second risk score based on the second threat; and

determining the first value by determining a p-norm with the first risk score and the second risk score.

17. A building management system comprising:

one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media communicably coupled to one or more processors and configured to store instructions; and

the one or more processors configured to execute the instructions to;

receive a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

determine whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determine a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determine the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat; and

determine an asset-threat risk score for the first threat and the asset based on;

a vulnerability parameter associated with the asset;

an asset cost parameter associated with the asset;

a severity associated with the first threat; and

a geographic distance between the asset and the first threat.

18. A building management system comprising:

one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to;

receive a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

generate a first risk score based on the first threat;

generate a second risk score based on the second threat;

determine whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determine a value of the risk score to be a first value by determining a p-norm with the first risk score and the second risk score in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat; and

determine the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat.

19. The building management system of claim 18, wherein the p-norm is at least one of a 2-norm or an infinity-norm.

20. The building management system of claim 18, wherein the second threat is a second weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat.

21. The building management system of claim 18, wherein the second threat is a non-weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat, wherein the first threat is a weather threat event.

22. The building management system of claim 18, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to determine the first value by:

determining the first risk score for the first threat based on a risk model;

determining the second risk score for the second threat based on the risk model; and

generating the risk score based on the first risk score and the second risk score.

23. A building management system comprising:

one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to;

receive a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

determine whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determine a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determine the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat;

receive a first set of weather threat data for weather associated with the asset;

store the first set of weather threat data in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media;

generate, based on the first set of weather threat data stored in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media, normal weather condition rules, wherein the normal weather condition rules indicate an expected weather condition;

receive a first weather threat;

determine, based on the normal weather condition rules, whether first weather threat indicates the expected weather condition; and

generate the risk score based on the first weather threat, wherein generating the risk score comprises generating a first weather value for the risk score in response to a determination that the first weather threat indicates the expected weather condition and generating a second weather value for the risk score in response to a determination that the first weather threat indicates a weather condition that is not the expected weather condition, wherein the second weather value indicates a greater level of risk than the first weather value.

24. The building management system of claim 23, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise an upper condition threshold;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to;

determine whether an environmental condition of the first weather threat is greater than the upper condition threshold;

generate the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is greater than the upper condition threshold; and

generate the risk score to be the first weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is not greater than the upper condition threshold.

25. The building management system of claim 24, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise a lower condition threshold;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to;

determine whether the environmental condition of the first weather threat is less than the lower condition threshold;

generate the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is less than the lower condition threshold; and

generate the risk score to be the first weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is not less than the lower condition threshold.

26. The building management system of claim 23, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise an upper risk score threshold;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to generate the risk score by;

generating a third weather value for the first weather threat based on a risk model;

determining whether the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold;

generating the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold, wherein the second weather value is greater than the first weather value and the third weather value; and

generating the risk score to be the first weather risk score value in response to determining that the third weather value is not greater than the upper risk score threshold.

27. The building management system of claim 26, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to execute the instructions to generate the risk score for the asset by generating the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold by multiplying the third weather value with a multiplier, wherein the multiplier is greater than one.

28. The building management system of claim 27, wherein a value of the multiplier is based on a frequency at which a type of the first weather threat occurs;

wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to;

determine the frequency at which the type of the first weather threat occurs based on the first set of weather threat data stored in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media; and

generate the value for the multiplier based on the frequency at which the type of the first weather threat occurs.

29. A method for risk analysis comprising:

receiving, by one or more processing circuits, a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat; and

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat;

wherein determining, by the one or more processing circuits, the value of the risk score to be the first value comprises;

updating a parameter value of a threat severity parameter for the first threat based on the correlation of the first threat and the second threat;

generating a first risk score for the first threat based on a risk model and the parameter value;

generating a second risk score for the second threat based on the risk model; and

selecting one of the first risk score and the second risk score by comparing a value of the first risk score to the second risk score, wherein a selected risk score comprises a value representing a greatest level of risk.

30. The method of claim 29, wherein the second threat is a non-weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat, wherein the first threat is a weather threat event.

31. The method of claim 29, further comprising:

generating the first risk score based on the first threat;

generating the second risk score based on the second threat; and

determining the first value by determining a p-norm with the first risk score and the second risk score.

32. A method for risk analysis comprising:

receiving, by one or more processing circuits, a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, a first risk score based on the first threat;

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, a second risk score based on the second threat;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, a value of the risk score to be a first value by determining a p-norm with the first risk score and the second risk score in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat; and

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat.

33. The method of claim 32, wherein the second threat is a second weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat.

34. The method of claim 32, wherein the second threat is a non-weather threat presenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of the first threat, wherein the first threat is a weather threat event.

35. The method of claim 32, further comprising determining, by the one or more processing circuits, the first value by:

determining the first risk score for the first threat based on a risk model;

determining the second risk score for the second threat based on the risk model; and

generating the risk score based on the first risk score and the second risk score.

36. A method for risk analysis comprising:

receiving, by one or more processing circuits, a plurality of threats, the plurality of threats comprising a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to a determination that the first threat is correlated with the second threat;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, the value of the risk score to be a second value in response to a determination that the first threat is not correlated with the second threat;

receiving, by the one or more processing circuits, a first set of weather threat data for weather associated with the asset;

storing, by the one or more processing circuits, the first set of weather threat data in one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media;

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, based on the first set of weather threat data stored in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media, normal weather condition rules, wherein the normal weather condition rules indicate an expected weather condition;

receiving, by the one or more processing circuits, a first weather threat;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, based on the normal weather condition rules, whether first weather threat indicates the expected weather condition; and

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, the risk score based on the first weather threat, wherein generating the risk score comprises generating a first weather value for the risk score in response to a determination that the first weather threat indicates the expected weather condition and generating a second weather value for the risk score in response to a determination that the first weather threat indicates a weather condition that is not the expected weather condition, wherein the second weather value indicates a greater level of risk than the first weather value.

37. The method of claim 36, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise an upper condition threshold;

wherein the method further comprises;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, whether an environmental condition of the first weather threat is greater than the upper condition threshold;

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is greater than the upper condition threshold; and

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, the risk score to be the first weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is not greater than the upper condition threshold.

38. The method of claim 37, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise a lower condition threshold;

wherein the method further comprises;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, whether the environmental condition of the first weather threat is less than the lower condition threshold;

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is less than the lower condition threshold; and

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, the risk score to be the first weather value in response to determining that the environmental condition of the first weather threat is not less than the lower condition threshold.

39. The method of claim 36, wherein the normal weather condition rules comprise an upper risk score threshold;

wherein generating, by the one or more processing circuits, the risk score comprises;

generating a third weather value for the first weather threat based on a risk model;

determining whether the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold;

generating the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold, wherein the second weather value is greater than the first weather value and the third weather value; and

generating the risk score to be the first weather risk score value in response to determining that the third weather value is not greater than the upper risk score threshold.

40. The method of claim 39, wherein generating, by the one or more processing circuits, the risk score for the asset comprises generating the risk score to be the second weather value in response to determining that the third weather value is greater than the upper risk score threshold by multiplying the third weather value with a multiplier, wherein the multiplier is greater than one.

41. The method of claim 40, wherein the value of the multiplier is based on a frequency at which a type of the first weather threat occurs;

wherein the method further comprises;

determining, by the one or more processing circuits, the frequency at which the type of the first weather threat occurs based on the first set of weather threat data stored in the one or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media; and

generating, by the one or more processing circuits, a value for the multiplier based on the frequency at which the type of the first weather threat occurs.