Automated tropical storm wind radii analysis and forecasting

• US 10,641,924 B2
• Filed: 09/07/2017
• Issued: 05/05/2020
• Est. Priority Date: 09/16/2016
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Government Of The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy
• Original Assignee: The Government Of The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy
• Inventors: Sampson, Charles R., Knaff, John, Frost, Michael D., Schrader, Ann
• Primary Examiner(s): Nimox, Raymond L
• Application Number:
  US15/697,531
• Publication Number:
  US 20180081080A1
• Time in Patent Office: 971 Days
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/00 Computer-aided design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202

Abstract

A computer-implemented system and methods that simplifies and improves the process for generating wind radii in tropical cyclones.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for generating a consensus wind radii track forecast of wind radii in a tropical cyclone, comprising the steps of:

receiving, at a data receiver, modeled wind radii data from at least one numerical weather prediction model, the modeled wind radii data including a plurality of modeled wind radii indicating a spatial radius of a wind having a speed at or above one of a plurality of predetermined threshold wind speeds in at least one of four predetermined geographic quadrants, the modeled wind radii data further including at least one predicted wind radius in the at least one of the geographic quadrants for at least one future time period;

receiving, at the data receiver, observational wind radii data of at least one observed wind radius in the at least one of the geographic quadrants from a satellite source or other sensor;

inputting the modeled wind radii data and the observational wind radii data into a processor configured to generate a forecast of the wind radii at one or more future forecast times;

analyzing the modeled wind radii data to identify undesired data reflecting a physical impossibility or other anomaly and eliminating the undesired data from the data to be processed;

adjusting a time frame for each of the modeled wind radii forecasts to reflect a time at which the prediction is being made;

for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant, generating a set of adjusted wind radii forecasts by correcting at least one predicted wind radius in at least one future modeled forecast to conform to the received observational data of wind radius at that wind speed, corrections being made to wind radii predicted in future forecast periods up to a predetermined future time and not being made to wind radii predicted in future forecast periods after the predetermined future time;

for each threshold wind speed and for each of a plurality of future forecast periods up to the predetermined future time, calculating a mean of the adjusted wind radii in each of the adjusted wind radii forecasts in each geographic quadrant to generate a consensus wind radii track forecast comprising a predicted wind radius for each threshold wind speed at each future forecast period in each geographic quadrant,

wherein the consensus wind radii track forecast reflects the adjustment of the modeled wind radii based on the observations of actual wind radii at the threshold wind speed in the geographic quadrant and

forecasts at least one of a size, a track, and/or an estimated time frame of the tropical cyclone for at least one future forecast period;

outputting the consensus wind radii track forecast to a graphical image processor; and

using the graphical image processor, generating a visual image of the consensus wind radii track forecast at each future forecast period in each geographic quadrant;

wherein the visual image indicates at least one of a size, a track, and/or an estimated time frame of the tropical cyclone for at least one future forecast period.

2. A computer-implemented method for generating a map of forecast wind radii in a tropical cyclone, comprising the steps of:

receiving modeled wind radii data from at least one numerical weather prediction model, the modeled wind radii data including a plurality of modeled wind radii indicating a spatial radius of a wind having a speed at or above one of a plurality of predetermined threshold wind speeds in at least one of four predetermined geographic quadrants, the modeled wind radii data further including at least one predicted wind radius in the at least one of the geographic quadrants for at least one future time period;

receiving observational wind radii data of at least one observed wind radius in the at least one of the geographic quadrants from a satellite source or other sensor;

analyzing the modeled wind radii data to identify undesired data reflecting a physical impossibility or other anomaly and eliminating the undesired data from the data to be processed;

adjusting a time frame for each of the predicted wind radii reflect a time at which the prediction is being made;

for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant, generating a set of adjusted wind radii forecasts by correcting at least one predicted wind radius in at least one future modeled forecast to conform to the received observational data of wind radius at that wind speed, corrections being made to wind radii predicted in future forecast periods up to a predetermined future time and not being made to wind radii predicted in future forecast periods after the predetermined future time;

for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant, calculating a mean of the adjusted wind radii for each of a plurality of future forecast periods up to the predetermined future time to generate a consensus wind radii track forecast comprising a predicted wind radius for each threshold wind speed at each future forecast period in each geographic quadrant,

the consensus wind radii track forecast reflecting both the data of the modeled wind radii and the observations of actual wind radii at the threshold wind speed in the geographic quadrant and providing information regarding a size, a track, and/or an estimated time frame of the tropical cyclone for at least one future forecast period; and

outputting the consensus wind radii track forecast to a graphical image processor; and

using the graphical image processor, generating a map showing the predicted wind radius for each threshold wind speed at each future forecast period in each geographic quadrant.

3. The method according to claim 2, further comprising generating a map showing at least one of a historical track and a future track of the wind radius for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant.