Method and system for real-time damage prediction and quantification

• US 10,642,249 B2
• Filed: 05/01/2017
• Issued: 05/05/2020
• Est. Priority Date: 05/01/2017
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Original Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Inventors: Srinivasan, Sridhar
• Primary Examiner(s): Johnson, Cedric
• Application Number:
  US15/583,784
• Publication Number:
  US 20180314232A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,100 Days
• Field of Search: 703 2
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 19/4065 Monitoring tool breakage, life or condition
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 2219/42155 Model
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/024 Quantitative history assessment, e.g. mathematical relationships between available data; Functions therefor; Principal component analysis [PCA]; Partial least square [PLS]; Statistical classifiers, e.g. Bayesian networks, linear regression or correlation analysis; Neural networks
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0289 Reconfiguration to prevent failure, e.g. usually as a reaction to incipient failure detection
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/00 Computer-aided design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/045 Explanation of inference; Explainable artificial intelligence [XAI]; Interpretable artificial intelligence

Abstract

A method for real-time damage prediction includes obtaining a damage prediction model that mathematically models expected damage to equipment in an industrial process based on a plurality of process parameters. The method also includes obtaining real-time state information for at least one of the plurality of process parameters. The method further includes determining, based on the real-time state information and the damage prediction model, a real-time prediction of damage to at least one component of the equipment in the industrial process. The method may also include obtaining historical data for the plurality of process parameters, and the real-time prediction of damage can be based on the historical data, the real-time state information, and the damage prediction model. The method may further include identifying and adjusting a high limit and a low limit for the at least one of the plurality of process parameters.

Claims

1. A method for real-time damage prediction in an industrial plant, comprising:

obtaining a damage prediction model that mathematically models expected damage to equipment in an industrial process based on a plurality of process parameters;

obtaining real-time state information for at least one of the plurality of process parameters from at least one sensor of a system that facilitates control and monitoring of at least one component of equipment in an industrial process of at least one industrial plant; and

determining, based on the real-time state information obtained from the at least one sensor and based on the damage prediction model, a real-time prediction of damage to the at least one component of the equipment in the industrial process of the at least one industrial plant; and

identifying a high limit and a low limit for the at least one of the plurality of process parameters;

wherein determining the real-time prediction of damage includes determining, based on the real-time state information, whether the at least one of the plurality of process parameters has passed the high limit or the low limit.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining historical data for the plurality of process parameters;

wherein determining the real-time prediction of damage comprises determining the real-time prediction of damage based on the historical data, the real-time state information, and the damage prediction model.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

determining at least one action for altering the real-time prediction of damage; and

transmitting a notification identifying the at least one action to an operator.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating, based on the real-time prediction of damage, at least one notification; and

transmitting the at least one notification to an operator.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the system further comprises at least one actuator that includes a structure for operating on or affecting at least one condition in the at least one industrial plant and wherein the at least one sensor includes a structure for measuring at least one characteristic in the at least one industrial plant.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

adjusting at least one of the high limit and the low limit for the at least one of the plurality of process parameters.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

storing the real-time prediction of damage in a memory.

8. An apparatus for real-time damage prediction in an industrial plant, comprising:

at least one processor and at least one memory configured to store instructions comprising a damage prediction model that mathematically models expected damage to equipment in an industrial process based on a plurality of process parameters, wherein the instructions cause the at least one processor to perform;

obtaining real-time state information for at least one of the plurality of process parameters from at least one sensor of a system that facilitates control and monitoring of at least one component of equipment in an industrial process of at least one industrial plant;

determining, based on the real-time state information obtained from the at least one sensor and based on the damage prediction model, a real-time prediction of damage to the at least one component of the equipment in the industrial process of the at least one industrial plant; and

identifying a high limit and a low limit for the at least one of the plurality of process parameters;

wherein determining the real-time prediction of damage includes determining, based on the real-time state information, whether the at least one of the plurality of process parameters has passed the high limit or the low limit.

9. The apparatus of claim 8, further comprising:

at least one network interface configured to receive historical data for the plurality of process parameters;

wherein the at least one processor is configured to determine the real-time prediction of damage based on the historical data, the real-time state information, and the damage prediction model.

10. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the instructions are further configured to cause the at least one processor to perform determining at least one action for altering the real-time prediction of damage;

and

further comprising at least one network interface configured to transmit a notification identifying the at least one action to an operator.

11. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the instructions are further configured to cause the at least one processor to generate, based on the real-time prediction of damage, at least one notification;

and

further comprising at least one network interface configured to transmit the at least one notification to an operator.

12. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the system further comprises at least one actuator that includes a structure for operating on or affecting at least one condition in the at least one industrial plant and wherein the at least one sensor includes a structure for measuring at least one characteristic in the at least one industrial plant.

13. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the instructions are further configured for causing the at least one processor to adjust the high limit and the low limit for the at least one of the plurality of process parameters.

14. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the instructions are further configured to cause the at least one processor is further configured to store the real-time prediction of damage in the at least one memory.

15. A non-transitory computer readable medium containing computer readable program code that when executed causes at least one processor to:

obtain a damage prediction model that mathematically models expected damage to equipment in an industrial process based on a plurality of process parameters;

obtain real-time state information for at least one of the plurality of process parameters from at least one sensor of a system that facilitates control and monitoring of at least one component of equipment in an industrial process of at least one industrial plant; and

determine, based on the real-time state information obtained from the at least one sensor and based on the damage prediction model, a real-time prediction of damage to at least one component of the equipment in the industrial process of the at least one industrial plant; and

identifying a high limit and a low limit for the at least one of the plurality of process parameters;

wherein determining the real-time prediction of damage includes determining, based on the real-time state information, whether the at least one of the plurality of process parameters has passed the high limit or the low limit.

16. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, further containing computer readable program code that when executed causes the at least one processor to obtain historical data for the plurality of process parameters;

wherein the computer readable program code that when executed causes the at least one processor to determine the real-time prediction of damage comprises;

computer readable program code that when executed causes the at least one processor to determine the real-time prediction of damage based on the historical data, the real-time state information, and the damage prediction model.

17. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, further containing computer readable program code that when executed causes the at least one processor to:

determine at least one action for altering the real-time prediction of damage; and

transmit a notification identifying the at least one action to an operator.

18. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, further containing computer readable program code that when executed causes the at least one processor to:

generate, based on the real-time prediction of damage, at least one notification; and

transmit the at least one notification to an operator.

19. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, wherein the system further comprises at least one actuator that includes a structure for operating on or affecting at least one condition in the at least one industrial plant and wherein the at least one sensor includes a structure for measuring at least one characteristic in the at least one industrial plant.

20. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, further containing computer readable program code that when executed causes the at least one processor to adjust at least one of the high limit and the low limit for the at least one of the plurality of process parameters.