System, method and computer program product for geo-specific vehicle pricing

• US 10,740,776 B2
• Filed: 12/27/2016
• Issued: 08/11/2020
• Est. Priority Date: 06/30/2011
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Original Assignee: TrueCar, Inc.
• Inventors: Swinson, Michael D., Dhillon, Param Pash Kaur, Sullivan, Thomas J., Liu, Xingchu
• Primary Examiner(s): Weisenfeld, Aryan E
• Application Number:
  US15/391,563
• Publication Number:
  US 20170109768A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,323 Days
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors

Abstract

Disclosed are embodiments for the aggregation and analysis of vehicle prices via a geo-specific model. Data may be collected at various geo-specific levels such as a ZIP-Code level to provide greater data resolution. Data sets taken into account may include demarcation point data sets and data sets based on vehicle transactions. A demarcation point data set may be based on consumer market factors that influence car-buying behavior. Vehicle transactions may be classified into data sets for other vehicles having similar characteristics to the vehicle. A geo-specific statistical pricing model may then be applied to the data sets based on similar characteristics to a particular vehicle to produce a price estimation for the vehicle.

Claims

1. A vehicle data system comprising:

a processor;

a non-transitory computer readable medium comprising computer code for processing distributed vehicle data, the computer code comprising code for;

obtaining, by the vehicle data system, a set of historical transaction records from a first set of distributed sources;

obtaining, by the vehicle data system, configurator data containing general features of vehicles by trim, MSRP offset data or census data from a second set of distributed sources;

correlating, by the vehicle data system, the configurator data, MSRP offset data or census data with respective historical transaction records from the set of historical transaction records using a trim identifier or geographic identifier to create correlated data;

enhancing, by the vehicle data system, the set of historical transaction records by appending the correlated data to the respective historical transaction records to create a set of enhanced historical transaction records;

classifying, by the vehicle data system, the enhanced historical transaction records in the set of enhanced historical transaction records into a plurality of bins based on at least one vehicle attribute and a geographical hierarchy;

providing, by the vehicle data system, a web page to a client computer, the web page having one or more input fields for a user to provide a user-specified vehicle configuration comprising a set of user-specified vehicle attributes;

receiving over a network via the web page the user-specified vehicle configuration;

generating, by the vehicle data system, a responsive web page in response to the user submitting the user-specified vehicle configuration during a search session by the user, generating the responsive web page comprising;

applying a first set of rules to select a bin from the plurality of bins as a function of a user geography and the user-specified vehicle configuration;

determining a margin ratio for the user-specified vehicle configuration by;

determining a maximum transaction age over which transactions in the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin are not used;

determining a degradation factor value for the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin;

weighting each transaction in the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin based on a respective transaction age and the degradation factor value;

determining geography specific socioeconomic data for a set of geography specific socioeconomic variables to account for geographic differences in consumer behavior, the geography specific socioeconomic data specific to a geographic region of the user and including a number of point of sale locations for a specific combination of vehicle year, make, model, and body in the geographic region of the user, and adjusting pricing of the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin for the geographic region based on the geography specific socioeconomic data;

applying a set of vehicle rules to the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin, the set of vehicle rules selected based on the user-specified vehicle configuration;

determining an estimated price corresponding to the set of user-specified vehicle attributes based on the determined margin ratio; and

generating HTML to cause a browser at the client computer to display the estimated price; and

sending the HTML to the client computer.

2. The vehicle data system of claim 1, wherein appending the correlated data to the respective historical transaction records comprises

storing the configurator data, the MSRP offset data or the census data in the correlated respective historical transaction records.

3. The vehicle data system of claim 1, wherein the first set of rules are based on the geographical hierarchy.

4. The vehicle data system of claim 3, wherein the first set of rules selects as the selected bin a bin at a lowest level in the geographical hierarchy where a threshold number of historical transaction records exists.

5. The vehicle data system of claim 4, wherein the geographical hierarchy includes a set of ordered geographical regions, including ZIP Code, ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA), subDMA, Designated Market Area (DMA), DMAGroup, DMARegion and the entire United States.

6. The vehicle data system of claim 5, wherein the set of ordered geographical regions of the geographical hierarchy is determined by applying a set of geographical hierarchy rules to a first set of geographical regions.

7. The vehicle data system of claim 6, wherein the set of geographical hierarchy rules comprises a set of ZIP Code to DMA rules, a set of ZIP Code to ZCTA rules, a set of DMA to subDMA rules, a set of DMA to DMAGroup rules, and a set of DMAGroup to DMARegion rules.

8. The vehicle data system of claim 7, wherein the set of DMA to subDMA rules comprise:

assigning any ZCTA for which there are at least a threshold number of associated historical transactions as a subDMA of the DMA to which it belongs;

for each DMA which has no identifiable subDMAs, assigning a subDMA to that DMA, wherein the subDMA is equivalent to that DMA; and

for any ZCTA not designated as a subDMA based on the threshold number of associated historical transactions, merging that ZCTA with a geographically closest DMA that has a smallest value for a socioeconomic difference indicator.

9. A vehicle data system comprising:

a processor;

a non-transitory computer readable medium comprising computer code for processing distributed vehicle data, the computer code comprising code for;

obtaining, by a vehicle data system, a set of historical transaction records from a first set of distributed sources;

classifying, by the vehicle data system, the historical transaction records in the set of historical transaction records into a plurality of bins based on at least one vehicle attribute and a geographical hierarchy;

providing, by the vehicle data system, a web page to a client computer, the web page having one or more input fields for a user to provide a user-specified vehicle configuration comprising a set of user-specified vehicle attributes;

receiving over a network via the web page the user-specified vehicle configuration;

generating, by the vehicle data system, a responsive web page in response to the user submitting the user-specified vehicle configuration during a search session by the user, generating the responsive web page comprising;

applying a first set of rules to select a bin of historical transaction records from the plurality of bins as a function of a user geography and the user-specified vehicle configuration;

determining a margin ratio for the user-specified vehicle configuration by;

determining a maximum transaction age over which transactions in the historical transaction records of the selected bin are not used;

determining a degradation factor value for the historical transaction records of the selected bin;

weighting each transaction in the historical transaction records of the selected bin based on a respective transaction age and the degradation factor value;

determining geography specific socioeconomic data for a set of geography specific socioeconomic variables to account for geographic differences in consumer behavior, the geography specific socioeconomic data specific to a geographic region of the user and including a number of point of sale locations for a specific combination of vehicle year, make, model, and body in the geographic region of the user, and adjusting pricing of the historical transaction records of the selected bin for the geographic region based on the geography specific socioeconomic data;

applying a set of vehicle rules to the historical transaction records of the selected bin, the set of vehicle rules selected based on the user-specified vehicle configuration;

determining an estimated price corresponding to the set of user-specified vehicle attributes based on the determined margin ratio;

generating HTML to cause a browser at the client computer to display the estimated price; and

communicating the responsive web page to the client computer.

10. The vehicle data system of claim 9, comprising code for enhancing the set of historical transaction records with additional vehicle data collected from a second set of distributed sources.

11. The vehicle data system of claim 10, wherein enhancing the set of historical transaction records comprises:

obtaining, by the vehicle data system, configurator data containing general features of vehicles by trim, MSRP offset data or census data from the second set of distributed sources;

correlating, by the vehicle data system, the configurator data, the MSRP offset data or the census data with a first historical transaction record using a trim identifier or geographic identifier; and

enhancing, by the vehicle data system, the first historical transaction record by storing the configurator data, the MSRP offset data or the census data in the first historical transaction record.

12. The vehicle data system of claim 9, wherein the first set of rules are based on the geographical hierarchy.

13. The vehicle data system of claim 12, wherein the first set of rules selects as the selected bin a bin at a lowest level in the geographical hierarchy where a threshold number of historical transaction records exists.

14. The vehicle data system of claim 13, wherein the geographical hierarchy includes a set of ordered geographical regions, including ZIP Code, ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA), subDMA, Designated Market Area (DMA), DMAGroup, DMARegion and the entire United States.

15. The vehicle data system of claim 14, wherein the set of ordered geographical regions of the geographical hierarchy are determined by applying a set of geographical hierarchy rules to a first set of geographical regions.

16. The vehicle data system of claim 15, wherein the set of geographical hierarchy rules comprises a set of ZIP Code to DMA rules, a set of ZIP Code to ZCTA rules, a set of DMA to subDMA rules, a set of DMA to DMAGroup rules, and a set of DMAGroup to DMARegion rules.

17. The vehicle data system of claim 16, wherein the set of DMA to subDMA rules comprise:

assigning any ZCTA for which there are at least a threshold number of associated historical transactions as a subDMA of the DMA to which it belongs;

for each DMA which has no identifiable subDMAs, assigning a subDMA to that DMA, wherein the subDMA is equivalent to that DMA; and

for any ZCTA not designated as a subDMA based on the threshold number of associated historical transactions, merging that ZCTA with a geographically closest DMA that has a smallest value for a socioeconomic difference indicator.

18. A vehicle data system comprising:

a processor;

a non-transitory computer readable medium comprising computer code for processing distributed vehicle data, the computer code comprising code for;

obtaining, by a vehicle data system, a set of historical transaction records from a first set of distributed sources, each transaction record associated with a corresponding vehicle identification number (VIN);

obtaining, by the vehicle data system, configurator data containing general features of vehicles by trim, MSRP offset data or census data from a second set of distributed sources by VIN;

correlating, by the vehicle data system, the configurator data, the MSRP offset data or the census data with respective historical transaction records from the set of historical transaction records using a trim identifier or geographic identifier to create correlated data;

enhancing, by the vehicle data system, the set of historical transaction records by appending the correlated data to the respective historical transaction records to create a first set of enhanced historical transaction records;

generating a dealer cost model for each of a set of manufacturers based on invoice data corresponding to that manufacturer, each dealer cost model defining holdback as a function of one or more additional pieces of invoice data;

classifying, by the vehicle data system, the enhanced historical transaction records of the first set of enhanced historical transaction records into a plurality of bins based on at least one vehicle attribute and geography hierarchy;

generating, by the vehicle data system, a price ratio model for each bin of the plurality of bins based on multivariable regression analysis of a set of vehicle attributes in the enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to that bin, each price ratio model defining price ratio as a function of one or more vehicle attributes in the set of vehicle attributes;

providing, by the vehicle data system, a web page to a client computer, the web page having one or more input fields for a user to provide a user-specified vehicle configuration comprising a set of user-specified vehicle attributes;

receiving over a network via the web page the user-specified vehicle configuration;

generating, by the vehicle data system, a responsive web page in response to the user submitting the user-specified vehicle configuration during a search session by the user, generating the responsive web page comprising;

applying a first set of rules to select a bin from the plurality of bins based on the set of user-specified vehicle attributes, the first set of rules selected based on at least one user-specified vehicle attribute and geography;

applying a second set of rules to select a first dealer cost model based on at least one user-specified vehicle attribute;

applying the selected first dealer cost model to a second set of enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to the selected bin to generate a dealer cost, the second set of enhanced historical transaction records being a subset of the first set of enhanced historical transaction records and including price data;

applying the price ratio model generated for the selected bin to the second set of enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to the selected bin to generate a price ratio;

generating an average price paid for the user-specified vehicle configuration as a function of dealer cost and price ratio;

generating one or more relative price ranges based on the average price paid for the user-specified vehicle configuration and a standard deviation of historical pricing data determined from the second set of enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to the selected bin;

fitting a curve fit to the price data from the second set of enhanced historical transaction records corresponding to the selected bin;

determining a margin ratio for the user-specified vehicle configuration by;

determining a maximum transaction age over which transactions in the enhanced historical transaction records are not used;

determining a degradation factor value for the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin;

weighting each transaction in the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin based on a respective transaction age and the degradation factor value;

determining geography specific socioeconomic data for a set of geography specific socioeconomic variables to account for geographic differences in consumer behavior, the geography specific socioeconomic data specific to a geographic region of the user and including a number of point of sale locations for a specific combination of vehicle year, make, model, and body in the geographic region of the user, and adjusting pricing of the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin for the geographic region based on the geography specific socioeconomic data;

applying a set of vehicle rules to the enhanced historical transaction records of the selected bin, the set of vehicle rules selected based on the user-specified vehicle configuration;

determining an estimated price corresponding to the user-specified vehicle attributes based on the determined margin ratio;

generating HTML to cause a browser at the client computer to display the curve with the relative prices ranges visually represented on the curve and the estimated price; and

sending the HTML to the client computer.