Housing market analysis method

• US 20020055869A1
• Filed: 01/16/2001
• Published: 05/09/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 01/13/2000
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: David Hegg
• Original Assignee: David Hegg
• Inventors: Hegg, David
• Application Number:
  US09/761,455
• Publication Number:
  US 20020055869A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

This invention is a method by which a housing market analysis can be made to produce a set of expected value groupings of a total population from information obtained from sample populations. The method includes using a ratio, called the median ratio, which is the mean divided by the median, together with traditional statistical procedures of standard deviation and ratio probability density distribution, to obtain a set of value groupings for a total population. In the specific example of average real estate sales, whereby the median of real estate sales a market analysis can be determined from the sample from which is computed the ratio probability density distributions which can then be used by an entity, be it governmental, private business, land developers, financial lenders, housing suppliers or others, to determine present housing needs and anticipate future housing requirements.

Claims

1. A method of analysis of statistical data to produce a set of expected value groupings of a total population from information obtained from sample populations, comprising the following steps:

a) calculating a ratio where the mean of a provided statistic is divided by the median of the sample population, this ratio a median ratio;

b) calculating, from a collection of the median ratios of step (a), the standard deviation of all of the median ratios of the sample population;

c) dividing the standard deviation of all of the ratios of the sample population by four;

d) establishing a median of this series of ratios and establishing groupings by moving in each direction from this median of median ratios by an amount determined from c) above;

e) calculating a ratio probability density distribution by dividing the actual number of ratios found in each grouping by the total of all ratios;

f) repeating steps a - e for several sample populations; and

g) reducing the ratio probability density distributions to a single composite RPDD figure.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising the steps of:

a) using the composite RPDD figure of claim 1, to a set of lowest value, the median value, the average value of the sample population and adjusting to form an identical statement between ratio probability density distribution formed in step 1 to the sample distribution being analyzed in step two; and

b) comparing within groupings the expected to the actual number found.

3. A method of analysis of statistical data by which a housing market analysis can be made to produce a set of expected value groupings of a total population from information obtained from sample populations, comprising the following steps:

a) using a median statistic and an average statistic in the sample, calculating a median ratio;

b) calculating a standard deviation of these median ratios;

c) dividing the standard deviation of the median ratios by four (4);

d) using the median of the median ratios, establish groupings by moving in each direction from this median of the median ratios by the amount determined in step (c), these groupings being the ratio probability density distribution;

e) combining the ratio probability density distribution (d) for the groupings where more than one median ratio is involved, by inspection and selection of a probability for a specific grouping so that the sum the of the probabilities selected total 50 percent for all groupings below the median and 50 percent for all groupings above the median;

f) using a formula 1−

1÷

(½

grouping number×

½

grouping number) for determining the groupings right of the median above the number observable in the groupings, these new groupings being the ratio probability density distributions to form a set of expected statistics from the sample data;

g) attaching the ratio probability density distributions to RPDD matching the entry values, median values, average values and total values of the same population;

h) comparing the expected number of statistics within each number grouping and compare it with the actual number of statistics found in the same grouping and making statistical inferences as to past, present and future real estate needs.