System and methodology for calculating the cost of future semiconductor products using regression analysis of historical cost data

• US 20020073051A1
• Filed: 12/12/2000
• Published: 06/13/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 12/12/2000
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Google LLC (Alphabet Inc.)
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Miraglia, Stephanie A., Blouin, Cathy L., Camisa, Carolyn S.
• Granted Patent: US 7,337,149 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/400
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03

Abstract

A method and structure for predicting semiconductor product costs at a fabricator entailing a storage medium which includes a database of historical critical dimensions and historical critical groundrules correlated to cost functions at the fabricator. The user interface has user inputs for new design parameters and new critical groundrules associated with a new device to be produced at the fabricator and a computer adapted to receive the user inputs, extract data from the storage medium, and compute semiconductor costs for the new device. The historical critical dimensions and the new critical dimensions are gate dimensions and the new critical dimensions are smaller than the historical critical dimensions. This device includes a future technology generation. Fabrication hardware and fabrication methods for producing the future technology generation are unknown and the relationships comprise base models and models that include options. The relationship comprise models that illustrate that costs increase exponentially as the historical critical dimensions and the historical critical groundrules are reduced.

Claims

1. A system for predicting semiconductor product costs at a fabricator comprising:

a storage medium including a database of historical critical dimensions and historical critical groundrules correlated to cost functions at said fabricator;

a user interface having user inputs for new design parameters and new critical groundrules associated with a new device to be produced at said fabricator; and

a computer adapted to receive said user inputs, extract data from said storage medium perform a regression analysis on said data, and compute semiconductor costs for said new device.

2. The system in claim 1, wherein said historical critical dimensions and said new critical dimensions comprise gate dimensions.

3. The system in claim 1, wherein said new critical dimensions are smaller than said historical critical dimensions.

4. The system in claim 1, wherein said new device comprises a future technology generation.

5. The system in claim 4, wherein fabrication hardware and fabrication methods for producing said future technology generation are unknown.

6. The system in claim 1, wherein said relationships comprise base models and models that include options.

7. The system in claim 1, wherein said relationship comprise models that illustrate that costs increase exponentially as said historical critical dimensions and said historical critical groundrules are reduced.

8. A method of predicting semiconductor product costs comprising:

performing a regression analysis on historical costs of historical critical dimensions at a fabricator, using said historical critical dimensions as independent variables and said historical costs as dependent variables;

creating, in a database, models from said regression analysis showing a relationship between said historical critical dimensions and said historical costs; and

inputting new design parameters and new critical dimensions of a new device into said database and predicting product costs of said new device based on said models.

9. The method in claim 8, wherein said historical critical dimensions and said new critical dimensions comprise gate dimensions.

10. The method in claim 8, wherein said new critical dimensions are smaller than said historical critical dimensions.

11. The method in claim 8, wherein said new device comprises a future technology generation.

12. The method in claim 11, wherein fabrication hardware and fabrication methods for producing said future technology generation are unknown.

13. The method in claim 8, wherein said models include base models and models that include options.

14. The method in claim 8, wherein said models illustrate that costs increase exponentially as said historical critical dimensions and said historical groundrules are reduced.

16. The system in claim 15, wherein said historical critical dimensions and said new critical dimensions comprise gate dimensions.

17. The system in claim 15, wherein said new critical dimensions are smaller than said historical critical dimensions.

18. The system in claim 15, further comprising a storage unit adapted to store a database of said relationships.

19. The system in claim 15, wherein said new device comprises a future technology generation.

20. The method in claim 19, wherein fabrication hardware and fabrication methods for producing said future technology generation are unknown.

15. A system for predicting semiconductor product costs at a fabricator comprising:

a regression analyzer adapted to determine relationships between historical critical dimensions of historical technologies and costs of said historical technologies;

a user interface for inputting a new critical dimension of a new technology; and

a calculator for predicting a cost of said new technology based on said new critical dimension and said relationships.

21. A program storage device readable by machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by said machine for performing a method of predicting semiconductor product costs, said method comprising:

performing a regression analysis on historical costs of historical critical dimensions at a fabricator, using said historical critical dimensions as independent variables and said historical costs as dependent variables;

creating, in a database, models from said regression analysis showing a relationship between said historical critical dimensions and said historical costs; and

inputting new design parameters and new critical dimensions of a new device into said database and predicting product costs of said new device based on said models.

22. The storage device in claim 21, wherein said historical critical dimensions and said new critical dimensions comprise gate dimensions.

23. The storage device in claim 21, wherein said new critical dimensions are smaller than said historical critical dimensions.

24. The storage device in claim 21, wherein said new device comprises a future technology generation.

25. The storage device in claim 24, wherein fabrication hardware and fabrication computer program products for producing said future technology generation are unknown.

26. The storage device in claim 21, wherein said models include base models and models that include options.

27. The storage device in claim 21, wherein said models illustrate that costs increase exponentially as said historical critical dimensions and said historical groundrules are reduced.