Automated system and method of forecasting demand

• US 20020107720A1
• Filed: 09/05/2001
• Published: 08/08/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 09/05/2000
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Walt Disney Parks and Resorts
• Original Assignee: Walt Disney Parks and Resorts
• Inventors: Martin, Ernest
• Application Number:
  US09/947,262
• Publication Number:
  US 20020107720A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06314 Calendaring for a resource
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/109 Time management, e.g. calendars, reminders, meetings or time accounting
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration

Abstract

The present invention provides a system and method for producing guest demand forecasts that keep pace with the dynamic nature of an amusement park'"'"'s operating environment, and are prepared in a statistically valid and efficient manner. The invention improves upon prior art processes by creating dynamic workload calculations that are responsive to business changes and require minimal effort to update.

Claims

1. An automated method of forecasting demand for a business location, the method comprising the steps of:

a) automatically obtaining and recording historical data relevant to the business location;

b) analyzing said historical data to eliminate any unwanted data points;

c) creating a forecast model by choosing at least one statistical analysis technique and at least one business driver relating said business location to the historical data;

d) applying the forecast model to selected data; and

e) generating a demand forecast.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein historical data includes past attendance and historical location sales transactions.

3. An automated method of forecasting demand for a business location, the method comprising the steps of:

a) automatically obtaining and recording historical data relevant to the business location;

b) analyzing said historical data to eliminate any unwanted data points;

c) creating a total daily demand/volume forecast model by choosing at least one statistical analysis technique and at least one business driver relating said business location to the historical data and applying to the historical data;

d) creating a daily distribution forecast model by choosing at least one statistical analysis technique and at least one business driver relating the business location to the historical data and applying to said historical data;

e) generating a total daily demand forecast using said forecast total daily demand forecast model; and

f) generating a daily distribution forecast using said daily distribution forecast model.

4. The method of claim 3 wherein historical data includes past attendance and historical location sales transactions.

5. The method of claim 3 wherein eliminating unwanted data points is done by flagging data for exclusion.

6. The method of claim 3 further including the step of exporting the total daily demand forecast and daily distribution forecast for use in a scheduling system.

7. An automated method of forecasting demand for a business location, the method comprising the steps of:

a) automatically obtaining historical data relevant to said business location;

b) selecting business drivers relevant to said business location;

c) applying statistical analysis techniques using the selected business drivers to the historical data to create a forecast model;

d) storing the forecast model in a database;

e) querying a database for driver values for a selected operating area and time period;

f) retrieving the previously stored model information created for said business location; and

g) evaluating the model using the queried driver values as its input.

8. The method of claim 7 wherein said time period is a day.

9. The method of claim 7 wherein the smaller time segment is about fifteen minutes.

10. The method of claim 7 wherein the smaller time segment is about thirty minutes.

12. The method of claim 10 wherein said time period is a day.

13. The method of claim 10 wherein the smaller time segment is about fifteen minutes.

11. An automated method of forecasting demand for a business location, the method comprising the steps of:

a) automatically obtaining historical data relevant to said business location;

b) selecting business drivers relevant to said business location;

c) applying statistical analysis techniques using the selected business drivers to the historical data to create a forecast model;

d) storing the forecast model in a database;

e) querying a database for driver values for a selected operating area and time period;

f) retrieving the previously stored model information created for said business location;

g) evaluating the model using the queried driver values as its input.

h) distributing said forecast of total demand into smaller time segments corresponding to the workday;

i) normalizing the data for each smaller time segment; and

j) displaying the results of the forecast in a graphical format.

15. The automated system of claim 14 wherein display means is a computer monitor.

16. The automated system of claim 14 wherein user interface is a personal computer and keyboard.

17. The automated system of claim 14 wherein means for collecting data from different business locations includes a computer network whereby data is communicated from business locations to a central location.

18. The automated system of claim 14 wherein processing means is a server.

14. An automated system for forecasting demand, the system comprising:

a) automated means for collecting data from different business locations;

b) at least one database for storing the collected data;

c) a user interface for accepting specifications from a user.

d) processing means for performing statistical analysis techniques on data;

e) at least one database for storing forecast models; and

f) display means for displaying forecast results.

19. An automated method of forecasting demand and workload for a business location, the method comprising the steps of:

a) automatically obtaining and recording historical data relevant to the business location;

b) cleansing said historical data of outlier data;

b) creating a forecast model by choosing at least one statistical analysis technique and at least one business driver relating the business location to the historical data and applying to said historical data;

c) generating a demand forecast using the forecast model; and

d) translating the demand stated by the forecast into workload requirements.