Investment analysis tool and service for making investment decisions

• US 20020128943A1
• Filed: 02/19/2002
• Published: 09/12/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 07/14/1999
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Development LP (Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Company)
• Original Assignee: Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. (HP Inc.)
• Inventors: Schreckengast, James O., Gilbert, Douglas M., Skaanning, Claus
• Granted Patent: US 7,225,174 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/36
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A decision support system supports investment decisions. The decision support system includes a decision support engine and a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network is traversed by the decision support engine. The Bayesian network includes an investment decision node, potential investment nodes, and information nodes. The investment decision node identifies an investment decision. The potential investment nodes identify potential investments. The information nodes identify information to be obtained. The information to be obtained is matched to potential investments. Reliability of the information is estimated, for example, with the help of domain experts.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a decision support system comprising the following steps:

(a) identifying an investment decision;

(b) identifying potential investments;

(c) utilizing domain experts to identify needed information to evaluate each investment;

(d) using domain experts to identify how to calculate investment risks; and

,

(e) constructing a Bayesian network based on information obtained in steps (a) through (d).

2. A method as in claim 1 additionally comprising the following step:

(f) using domain experts to identify how to calculate reliability of information obtained in step (c).

3. A method as in claim 1 additionally comprising the following step:

(f) using domain experts to identify how to calculate transaction costs for investments.

4. A method as in claim 1 wherein step (c) includes the following substep:

(c.1) using domain experts to identify pertinent information to obtain about an investor in order to perform the investment decision.

5. A method as in claim 1 wherein step (c) includes the following substep:

(c.1) using domain experts to identify pertinent information to obtain about an investor in order to perform the investment decision, the pertinent information including at least one of the following;

investment time horizon,

risk toleration,

desired return,

available capital.

6. A method as in claim 1 wherein in step (b) identifying potential investments comprises the following substeps:

(b.1) identifying investment types; and

,

(b.2) identifying particular investments with the investment types.

7. A decision support system for supporting investment decisions comprising:

a decision support engine; and

,

a Bayesian network traversed by the decision support engine, the Bayesian network comprising;

an investment decision node identifying an investment decision,

potential investment nodes identifying potential investments, and

information nodes identifying information to be obtained, the information to be obtained being matched to potential investments, wherein reliability of the information is estimated.

8. A decision support system as in claim 7 additionally comprising:

a knowledge acquisition tool for building the Bayesian network.

9. A decision support system as in claim 7 wherein the information to be obtained includes additional information about the potential investments to be obtained from a database.

10. A decision support system as in claim 7 wherein the information to be obtained includes additional information to be obtained from a potential investor.

11. A decision support system as in claim 7 wherein the information to be obtained includes additional information to be obtained from a potential investor, including at least one of the following:

investment time horizon;

risk toleration;

desired return;

available capital.

13. A decision support system as in claim 12 additionally comprising:

a knowledge acquisition tool for building the Bayesian network.

14. A decision support system as in claim 12 wherein the information to be obtained includes additional information about the investments to be obtained from a database.

15. A decision support system as in claim 12 wherein the information to be obtained includes additional information to be obtained from a potential investor.

16. A decision support system as in claim 12 wherein the information to be obtained includes additional information to be obtained from a potential investor, including at least one of the following:

investment time horizon;

risk toleration;

desired return;

available capital.

12. A decision support system for supporting investment decisions comprising:

a decision support engine; and

,

a Bayesian network traversed by the decision support engine, the Bayesian network comprising;

an investment issue node identifying an investment issue,

investment type nodes identifying investment types,

investment nodes identifying investments available within investment types, and

information nodes identifying information to be obtained, the information to be obtained being matched to investment nodes, wherein reliability of the information is estimated.