SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR PREDICTING COMPUTER SYSTEM PERFORMANCE AND FOR MAKING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING ITS PERFORMANCE

• US 20020133757A1
• Filed: 02/23/1999
• Published: 09/19/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 02/23/1999
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: ServiceNow Incorporated
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: MCKNIGHT, GREGORY J., BERTRAM, RANDAL LEE, HUNTER KRAUSS, FREDERICK SCOTT
• Granted Patent: US 6,470,464 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 714/47
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/3447 Performance evaluation by modeling
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/3476 Data logging G06F11/14, G06F11/2205 take precedence
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/22 comprising specially adapted graphical user interfaces [GUI]
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/00 Arrangements for monitoring or testing data switching networks
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/067 using time frame reporting
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/106 using time related information in packets, e.g. by adding timestamps
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/16 Threshold monitoring
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 707/99932 Access augmentation or optimizing

Abstract

A system and method of monitoring and analyzing the performance of a computer system and its components in a data processing network and for proposing changes to the network to improve the performance. The system involves identifying undesirable conditions (sometimes called bottlenecks) in the system, determining which bottlenecks are the most severe in affecting the performance of the system and in proposing changes to the components of the system to improve performance of the network. The present invention uses historical data and forecasting techniques to predict bottlenecks which have not occurred yet but which can be expected, so that future bottlenecks can be projected, along with a prediction interval to indicate the confidence of the prediction. The future projections and the prediction interval are provided in a graph which is available to the user over the Internet, if desired, using HTML and hot links.

Claims

1. A method of analyzing performance of a computer system and for providing recommendations for changes in the system to improve its performance, the steps of the method comprising:

receiving and storing indicators of the performance of components of the computer system at periodic times;

applying stored rules to the stored indicators to analyze the performance of the computer system;

project future performance of the computer system based upon past indicators;

detecting a projected undesirable condition of the computer system based upon the future performance projections based on past indicators; and

in response to the detecting of an undesirable condition of the computer system, providing a recommendation to alleviate the performance of the computer system by ameliorating the projected undesirable conditions of the computer system.

2. A method of analyzing the computer system including the steps of claim 1, and further including the step of analyzing the undesirable conditions to determine the most severe undesirable condition and reporting it first.

3. A method of analyzing performance of a computer system including the steps of claim 1 wherein the method further includes the steps of determining at least one remedy for a detected undesirable condition and providing a report of the undesirable condition which has been detected and a proposed remedy for the condition.

4. A method of analyzing performance of a computer system including the steps of claim 1 wherein the method further includes a step of calculating a prediction interval indicative of the probability that the future performance will be within the prediction interval.

5. A method of analyzing performance of a computer system including the steps of claim 4 wherein the method further includes the step of displaying the prediction interval and the future performance prediction so that the projected undesirable condition can be seen.

6. A method of analyzing performance of a computer system including the steps of claim 1 wherein the step of detecting an undesirable future condition includes the step of projecting the date on which the undesirable future condition may occur.

7. A method of analyzing the performance of a computer system and providing a report on the undesirable future condition which has been projected and a proposed remedy as set forth in claim 1 wherein the step of providing a report includes the step of preparing a report in an Internet format and includes making the report accessible over the Internet.

8. A method of analyzing the performance of a computer system and providing a report on the undesirable future condition including the steps of claim 7 wherein the step of preparing a report in Internet format includes the step of including a symbol indicating that additional detail on the undesirable condition is available by clicking on the symbol.

9. A method of analyzing the performance of a computer system including the steps of claim 1 and further including the step of providing an indication when the data from such analyses may be unreliable.

10. A system for projecting one or more undesirable conditions in a computer system and for recommending an action to alleviate the determined undesirable conditions, the system comprising:

a first module for receiving and storing indicators of the performance of components of the computer system over a time period;

a second module for applying rules to the stored indicators of performance to determine whether an undesirable condition exists;

a third module for projecting future operation of the computer system from the stored indicators if no undesirable condition has been determined in the stored indicators, said module including a statistical tool to project the indicators into the future; and

a fourth module for determining if the projected future operations of the computer system is an undesirable condition and for recommending a solution for ameliorating the undesirable condition.

11. A media with a program stored thereon, the stored program comprising:

a module for determining if a bottleneck condition has occurred in the past based on stored indicators of performance over a past period of time;

a module for projecting future indicators based on the stored indicators of performance over the past period of time, said projected indicators using statistical analysis of the stored indicators if no bottleneck has occurred in the past period of time;

a module for analyzing the projected future indicators based on a definition of a bottleneck condition in the determining module for a projected bottleneck which has not yet occurred but which is projected to occur and for providing a recommendation to ameliorate the projected bottleneck condition;

a module for reporting the projected bottleneck condition and a projected date on which it may occur with a recommendation for ameliorating the projected bottleneck condition.

12. A media with a stored program including the elements of claim 11 wherein the stored program further includes a module for generating a prediction interval which is indicative of the confidence of the prediction.

13. A media with a stored program including the elements of claim 12 wherein the media further includes a display module for providing a visual display of the stored indicators and future projected indicators and the prediction interval.

14. A media with a stored program including the elements of claim 13 wherein the display module further includes code for displaying in an Internet format data which indicates a bottleneck threshold and the future projected indicators.

15. A media with a stored program including the elements of claim 12 wherein the program includes a module for determining which of several bottlenecks is the most serious and for presenting the most serious bottleneck first in the report of the bottleneck conditions.