Supply chain demand forecasting and planning
First Claim
1. A method for forecasting future demand, said method comprising:
- providing a plurality of demand forecasting algorithms and a plurality of demand data history streams, said history streams pertaining to a particular product at a location;
creating more than one model for the product at the location, each said model comprising a pairing of one of said demand forecasting algorithms and one of said demand data history streams;
calculating a forecast for each model by statistical regression of each model'"'"'s history stream using its paired model'"'"'s forecasting algorithm;
comparing said forecasts for said more than one models and identifying certain forecasts as finalized; and
publishing said finalized forecasts.
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Abstract
Disclosed herein are systems and methods for demand forecasting that enable multiple-scenario comparisons and analyses by letting users create forecasts from multiple history streams (for example, shipments data, point-of-sale data, customer order data, return data, etc.) with various alternative forecast algorithm theories. The multiple model framework of the present invention enables users to compare statistical algorithms paired with various history streams (collectively referred to as “models”) so as to run various simulations and evaluate which model will provide the best forecast for a particular product in a given market. Once the user has decided upon which model it will use, it can publish forecast information provided by that model for use by its organization (such as by a downstream supply planning program). Embodiments of the present invention provide a system and method whereby appropriate demand responses can be dynamically forecasted whenever given events occur, such as when a competitor lowers the price on a particular product (such as for a promotion), or when the user'"'"'s company is launching new sales and marketing campaigns. Preferred embodiments of the present invention use an automatic tuning feature to assist users in determining optimal parameter settings for a given forecasting algorithm to produce the best possible forecasting model.
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Citations
21 Claims
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1. A method for forecasting future demand, said method comprising:
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providing a plurality of demand forecasting algorithms and a plurality of demand data history streams, said history streams pertaining to a particular product at a location;
creating more than one model for the product at the location, each said model comprising a pairing of one of said demand forecasting algorithms and one of said demand data history streams;
calculating a forecast for each model by statistical regression of each model'"'"'s history stream using its paired model'"'"'s forecasting algorithm;
comparing said forecasts for said more than one models and identifying certain forecasts as finalized; and
publishing said finalized forecasts. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
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9. A system for creating forecasts of future demand, said system comprising:
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means for providing a plurality of demand forecasting algorithms and a plurality of demand data history streams, said history streams pertaining to a particular product at a location;
means for creating more than one model for the product at the location, each said model comprising a pairing of one of said demand forecasting algorithms and one of said demand data history streams;
means for calculating a forecast for each model by statistical regression of each model'"'"'s history stream using its paired model'"'"'s forecasting algorithm;
means for comparing said forecasts for said more than one models and identifying certain forecasts as finalized; and
means for publishing said finalized forecasts. - View Dependent Claims (10)
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11. A method for forecasting future demand, said method comprising the steps of:
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setting up a database and defining Demand Forecasting Units (DFUs), each of said DFUs pertaining to a particular product at a particular location;
preparing a forecast for each of the DFUs;
reviewing said prepared forecasts; and
for one or more of said DFUs, publishing said reviewed forecasts associated with said DFUs. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21)
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Specification