Method and system for assessing and planning business operations

• US 20020174005A1
• Filed: 05/16/2001
• Published: 11/21/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 05/16/2001
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: NTT Data Services Corporation (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Perot Systems Corporation (Dell Technologies Inc.)
• Inventors: Chappel, Oscar A.
• Granted Patent: US 7,236,940 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

The principles of the present invention include a system and method for assessing business activities. The method includes retrieving historical data associated with a business activity. At least one statistical model is generated based on the historical data. Knowledge is developed based on the statistical model(s). The knowledge is applied to at least one predetermined rule. Validity of the statistical model(s) is assessed based on the application of the knowledge using the predetermined rule(s). A valid statistical model is recommended to a user.

Claims

1. A method for assessing business activities, the method comprising:

retrieving historical data associated with a business activity;

generating at least one statistical model based on the historical data;

developing knowledge based on said generated at least one statistical model;

applying the knowledge using at least one predetermined rule;

assessing validity of the at least one statistical model based on said applying of the knowledge using the at least one predetermined rule; and

recommending a valid statistical model for assessing the business activity based on said assessing validity of the at least one statistical model.

2. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

applying the recommended valid statistical model to generate at least one of the following;

assessment data representative of the business activity, and

prediction data representative of a projected business activity.

3. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

determining a certainty factor that the at least one statistical model is valid; and

indicating the certainty factor.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the at least one statistical model includes at least one of the following:

linear regression, non-linear regression, and time-series.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the time-series model includes a random-walk model.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein said developing the knowledge includes determining at least one correlation coefficient.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the knowledge includes facts and assertions.

8. The method according to claim 1, wherein said generating at least one statistical model includes:

first, generating a linear regression model;

second, generating a non-linear regression model; and

third, generating a time-series model.

9. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

automatically generating a second statistical model upon determining invalidity of a first statistical model.

10. A system for assessing business activities, the system comprising:

a database for storing historical data associated with a business activity;

a computer-readable medium having stored thereon sequences of instructions;

a processor coupled to said database and said computer-readable medium, said processor executing the sequences of instructions and causing the processor to;

generate at least one statistical model based on the historical data;

retrieve at least one predetermined rule to assess validity of the at least one statistical model;

assess validity of the at least one statistical model based on said applying of the at least one predetermined rule; and

recommend a valid statistical model for assessing the business activity based on said assessment of the validity of the at least one statistical model.

11. The system according to claim 10, wherein said processor further:

applies the recommended valid statistical model to generate at least one of the following;

assessment data representative of the business activity, and

prediction data representative of a projected business activity.

12. The system according to claim 10, wherein said processor further:

determines a certainty factor that the at least one statistical model is valid; and

indicates the certainty factor.

13. The system according to claim 10, wherein the at least one statistical model includes at least one of the following:

linear regression, non-linear regression, and time-series.

14. The system according to claim 13, wherein the time-series model includes a random-walk model.

15. The system according to claim 10, wherein said developing knowledge includes determining at least one correlation coefficient.

16. The method according to claim 10, wherein the knowledge includes facts and assertions.

17. The system according to claim 16, wherein said generation of the at least one statistical model includes:

first, generation of a linear regression model;

second, generation of a non-linear regression model; and

third, generation of a time-series model.

18. The system according to claim 10, wherein said processor further:

automatically generates a second statistical model upon determining invalidity of a first statistical model.

20. The system according to claim 19, wherein said at least one model includes at least one of the following:

linear regression, non-linear regression, and time series.

21. The system according to claim 19, wherein said statistics component creates at least one assertion, said inference engine utilizing the at least one assertion in assessing validity of the at least one statistical model.

22. The system according to claim 19, further including a second database for storing the historical data to be assessed by the system by applying the historical data to the at least one statistical model.

23. The system according to claim 22, wherein the data is associated with business activities.

24. The system according to claim 19, further comprising means for indicating a valid statistical model.

25. The system according to claim 19, further comprising means for determining a certainty factor for the valid statistical model.

26. The system according to claim 19, wherein said database further stores assertions generated by said statistics component.

19. A system for assessing data, the system comprising:

a statistics component for performing statistical analysis on historical data;

at least one statistical model component coupled to said statistics component, said at least one statistical model component generating at least one statistical model;

an analyst component coupled to said statistics component, said analyst component initiating said statistics component to perform the statistical analysis on the historical data;

an inference engine coupled to said analyst component; and

a database including at least one rule, the at least one rule being applied by said inference engine to assess validity of said at least one statistical model.