Cash flow forecasting

• US 20020174006A1
• Filed: 05/17/2001
• Published: 11/21/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 05/17/2001
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: George, Eric A., Rugge, Robert D., Mandel, Sigmund
• Granted Patent: US 7,555,451 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A method and system for automatically estimating budget items based on past transactions and generating a cash flow forecast for one or more accounts. A budget item is determined for each of a plurality of categories of transactions. A frequency and amount of each budget item is determined as a function of an actual transaction count, a date span of actual transactions, and a sum of actual transaction amounts—all of the transactions occurring in the past. For each budget item, a cash flow transaction is determined as a function of a posting date criterion and a selected forecast period. A running balance of the cash flow transactions is determined and displayed. Through the display, a user is enabled to modify individual cash flow transactions to generate a new cash flow forecast, or generate an alternate cash flow forecast that can be compared to the original cash flow forecast.

Claims

1. A method for estimating a budget item based upon at least one prior transaction, for use in predicting a cash flow forecast, comprising the steps of:

(a) summing all prior transactions occurring over a specified range of time to produce a sum;

(b) determining a total number of prior transactions occurring during said specified range of time;

(c) determining a date span between a first transaction and a last transaction within the specified range of time;

(d) determining a budget item frequency as a function of the total number of prior transactions, and the date span;

(e) determining an average amount for the prior transactions occurring over the date span;

(f) determining a budget item amount by scaling the average amount for the prior transactions occurring over the date span, by the budget item frequency; and

(g) using the budget item amount and the budget item frequency for predicting a cash flow forecast.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the budget item frequency comprises the steps of:

(a) assigning the budget item frequency to be annually if one of the following is true;

(i) the total number of prior transactions is equal to one;

(ii) the date span is less than two months; and

(iii) the total number of prior transactions is less than one half of the date span expressed in months;

(b) assigning the budget item frequency to be weekly if the total number of prior transactions is greater than a predefined multiple of the date span expressed in months; and

otherwise,

(c) assigning the budget item frequency to be monthly.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the budget item amount comprises the steps of:

(a) assigning the budget item amount to be the sum of all prior transactions occurring over the specified range of time, if the total number of the prior transactions is equal to one; and

otherwise

(b) assigning the budget item amount to be equal to the average amount for the prior transactions occurring over the date span, multiplied by the budget item frequency.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising the steps of:

(a) generating a list of prior transactions sorted by at least one category; and

(b) estimating a budget item for each of said at least one category.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein the step of generating the list of prior transactions sorted by at least one category comprises the steps of:

(a) accessing at least one account database storing the prior transactions; and

(b) sorting the prior transactions identified by category into the list of prior transactions.

6. The method of claim 4, further comprising the step of generating a cash flow transaction for use in predicting the cash flow forecast, as a function of the budget item for each of said at least one category.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the step of generating the cash flow transaction comprises the steps of:

(a) determining a first date that falls within a forecast date range as a function of the budget item frequency iterated from January first of a year that includes a start date of the forecast date range;

(b) applying a posting date criterion to the first date as a function of the budget item frequency, to establish a cash flow transaction date for the cash flow transaction; and

(c) assigning the budget item amount to the cash flow transaction.

8. The method of claim 7, further comprising the step of generating a cash flow transaction as a function of the budget item for each of said at least one category.

9. The method of claim 8, further comprising the step of generating the cash flow forecast as function of the cash flow transaction for each of said at least one category.

10. The method of claim 9, further comprising the steps of:

(a) determining a balance amount as of the start date of the forecast date range;

(b) applying to the balance amount the cash flow transaction for one of said at least one category, to obtain a running balance; and

(c) applying to the running balance the cash flow transaction for a next of said at least one category, if a next of said at least one category exists.

11. The method of claim 8, wherein the step of predicting the cash flow forecast is carried out as a function of the cash flow transaction for each of said at least one category and as a function of at least one manually budgeted transaction associated with said at least one category.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the step of predicting the cash flow forecast comprises the steps of:

(a) determining a balance amount as of the start date of the forecast date range;

(b) applying to the balance amount the cash flow transaction for one of said at least one category to obtain a running balance; and

(c) applying the budgeted transaction associated with said at least one category to the running balance amount to obtain a new running balance.

13. A machine-readable medium storing machine instructions that cause a processor to perform the steps of claim 1.

15. The system of claim 14, wherein the machine instructions further cause the processor to:

(a) generate a list of the prior transactions sorted by at least one category; and

(b) estimate a budget item for each of said at least one category, wherein each budget item is defined by the budget item amount and the budget item frequency determined from the prior transactions of each category.

16. The system of claim 14, wherein the machine instructions further cause the processor to generate at least one cash flow transaction as a function of the budget item for each of said at least one category, for use in predicting the cash flow forecast.

18. The method of claim 17, further comprising the step of determining the budget item frequency as a function of:

(a) a count of any prior transactions occurring over a specific period of time; and

(b) a date span between a first prior transaction and a last prior transaction within the specific period of time.

19. The method of claim 18, further comprising the step of determining the budget item amount as a function of:

(a) a sum of any prior transactions occurring over the specific period of time;

(b) the date span; and

(c) the budget item frequency.

20. The method of claim 18, wherein the step of determining at least one budget item comprises the steps of:

(a) assigning the budget item frequency to be annually if one of the following occurs;

(i) the count of prior transactions is equal to one;

(ii) the date span is less than two months; and

(iii) the count of prior transactions is less than one half of the date span expressed in months;

(b) assigning the budget item frequency to be weekly if the count of the prior transactions is greater than a predefined multiple of the date span expressed in months; and

otherwise,

(c) assigning the budget item frequency to be monthly.

21. The method of claim 19, wherein the step of determining the budget item amount further comprises the steps of:

(a) assigning the budget item amount to be an amount of a single prior transaction occurring during the specified period of time, if the count of prior transactions is equal to one; and

otherwise,

(b) assigning the budget item amount to be equal to the sum of said prior transactions over the specified period of time, multiplied by the budget item frequency, divided by a number of predefined budget item frequency periods encompassed by the date span.

22. The method of claim 21, further comprising the step of adjusting the predicted cash flow forecast by subtracting from the budget item amount at least one of any post-dated prior transaction and any overdue cash flow transaction.

23. The method of claim 17, wherein the step of creating at least one cash flow transaction comprises the steps of:

(a) determining if the at least one budget item is a one-time budget item, and if so;

(i) assigning a cash flow transaction amount equal to a budget item amount with a posting date that is set equal to a specified date for the at least one budget item, if the specified date is associated with the at least one budget item; and

otherwise,

(ii) assigning an equal portion of the cash flow transaction amount to a plurality of cash flow transactions, wherein each of the plurality of cash flow transactions has a different posting date, said different posting dates being equally distributed within a predefined period of time for the at least one budget item; and

if not (a),

(b) establishing a plurality of cash flow transactions over the selected forecast period, wherein each of the plurality of cash flow transactions has a different posting date defined as a function of a posting date criterion selectable by a user.

24. The method of claim 23, wherein the step of establishing a plurality of cash flow transactions comprises the steps of:

(a) determining if the posting date criterion has a first value, and if so, assigning to each of the plurality of cash flow transactions;

(i) a cash flow transaction amount equal to the budget item amount; and

(ii) a posting date that is proximate a last day of each successive period defined by the budget item frequency;

(b) determining if the posting date criterion has a second value, and if so, assigning to each of the plurality of cash flow transactions;

(i) a cash flow transaction amount equal to a budget item amount; and

(ii) a posting date that is proximate a first day of each successive period defined by the budget item frequency; and

(c) determining if the posting date criterion has a third value, and if so, assigning to each of the plurality of cash flow transactions;

(i) a cash flow transaction amount equal to an equal portion of the budget item amount; and

(ii) a posting date that is a selected day of each of a plurality of successive sub-periods defined by subdividing the budget item frequency.

25. The method of claim 24, wherein the selected day of the successive sub-periods is one of a first, a last and a middle day of each successive period.

26. The method of claim 17, further comprising the step of creating an additional cash flow transaction as a function of an overdue transaction.

27. The method of claim 17, further comprising the step of creating an additional cash flow transaction as a function of manually entered budget item.

28. The method of claim 17, further comprising the steps of:

(a) determining a balance at a beginning of the selected forecast period; and

(b) applying the at least one cash flow transaction to the balance to create a first running balance.

29. The method of claim 28, further comprising the step of displaying the first running balance in one of a graphical and list form.

30. The method of claim 28, further comprising the step of enabling a user to modify the at least one cash flow transaction, causing a second running balance to be determined.

31. The method of claim 30, further comprising the step of displaying the second running balance in place of the first running balance.

32. The method of claim 30, further comprising the step of displaying the second running balance in addition to the first running balance.

33. A machine-readable medium storing machine instructions that cause a processor to perform the steps of claim 17.

35. The system of claim 34, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to determining the budget item frequency as a function of:

(a) a count of any prior transactions occurring over a specific period of time; and

(b) a date span between a prior transaction and a last prior transaction within the specific period of time.

36. The system of claim 34, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to determining the budget item amount as a function of:

(a) a sum of any prior transactions occurring over the specific period of time;

(b) the date span; and

(c) the budget item frequency.

37. The system of claim 34, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to determining the budget item frequency by:

(a) assigning the budget item frequency to be annually if one of the following occurs;

(i) the count of prior transactions is equal to one;

(ii) the date span is less than two months; and

(iii) the count of prior transactions is less than one half of the date span expressed in months;

(b) assigning the budget item frequency to be weekly if the count of the prior transactions is greater than a predefined multiple of the date span expressed in months; and

otherwise,

(c) assigning the budget item frequency to be monthly.

38. The system of claim 34, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to create the at least one cash flow transaction by:

(a) determining if the at least one budget item is a one-time budget item, and if so;

(i) assigning a cash flow transaction amount equal to a budget item amount with a posting date that is set equal to a specified date for the at least one budget item, if the specified date is associated with the at least one budget item; and

otherwise,

(ii) assigning an equal portion of the cash flow transaction amount to a plurality of cash flow transactions, wherein each of the plurality of cash flow transactions has a different posting date, said different posting dates being equally distributed within a predefined period of time for the at least one budget item; and

if not (a),

(b) establishing a plurality of cash flow transactions over the selected forecast period, wherein each of the plurality of cash flow transactions has a different posting date defined as a function of a posting date criterion selectable by a user.

39. The system of claim 38, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to create the plurality of cash flow transactions by:

(a) determining if the posting date criterion has a first value, and if so, assigning to each of the plurality of cash flow transactions;

(i) a cash flow transaction amount equal to the budget item amount; and

(ii) a posting date that is proximate a last day of each successive period defined by the budget item frequency;

(b) determining if the posting date criterion has a second value, and if so, assigning to each of the plurality of cash flow transactions;

(i) a cash flow transaction amount equal to a budget item amount; and

(ii) a posting date that is proximate a first day of each successive period defined by the budget item frequency; and

(c) determining if the posting date criterion has a third value, and if so, assigning to each of the plurality of cash flow transactions;

(i) a cash flow transaction amount equal to an equal portion of the budget item amount; and

(ii) a posting date that is a selected day of each of a plurality of successive sub-periods defined by subdividing the budget item frequency.

40. The system of claim 34, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to:

(a) determine a balance at a beginning of the selected forecast period; and

(b) apply the at least one cash flow transaction to the balance to create a first running balance.

41. The system of claim 40, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to display the first running balance in one of a graphical and list form on the display.

42. The system of claim 41, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to enable a user to select with the user input device, a portion of the graphical form of the first running balance displayed on the display, wherein said selection causes processor to display on the display the at least one cash flow transaction associated with the selected portion of the graphical form of the running balance.

43. The system of claim 40, wherein said machine instructions further cause the processor to enable a user to modify the at least one cash flow transaction, causing a second running balance to be determined.

14. A system for estimating a budget item, for use in predicting a cash flow forecast, comprising:

(a) a processor;

(b) a memory in communication with the processor, said memory storing machine instructions and data; and

(c) said machine instructions comprising an application program that when executed by the processor, causes the processor to perform a plurality of functions, including;

(i) summing all prior transactions occurring over a specified range of time;

(ii) determining a total number of prior transactions occurring during said specified range of time;

(iii) determining a date span between a first transaction and a last transaction within the specified range of time;

(iv) determining a budget item frequency as a function of the total number of prior transactions, and the date span;

(v) determining an average amount for the prior transactions occurring over the date span;

(vi) determining a budget item amount by scaling the average amount for the prior transactions occurring over the date span, by the budget item frequency; and

(vii) using the budget item amount and the budget item frequency to predict the cash flow forecast.

17. A method for automatically generating a cash flow forecast over a selectable forecast period, comprising the steps of:

(a) generating an autobudget that includes at least one budget item, said autobudget being generated as a function of a budget item frequency and a budget item amount that are based upon at least one prior transaction; and

(b) creating at least one cash flow transaction as a function of the at least one budget item, and the selected forecast period, at least a portion of which extends into the future, said at least one cash flow transaction defining said cash flow forecast.

34. A system for generating a cash flow forecast, comprising

(a) a processor;

(b) a display coupled to the processor;

(c) a user input device coupled to the processor; and

(d) a memory in communication with the processor, said memory storing machine instructions and data, said machine instructions comprising an application program that when executed by the processor, causes the processor to perform a plurality of functions, including;

(i) generating an autobudget that includes at least one budget item, said autobudget being generated as a function of a budget item frequency and a budget item amount that are based upon at least one prior transaction; and

(ii) creating at least one cash flow transaction as a function of the at least one budget item, and the selected forecast period, at least a portion of which extends into the future, said at least one cash flow transaction defining said cash flow forecast.