Apparatus and method for supporting investment decision making, and computer program

• US 20020174049A1
• Filed: 05/14/2002
• Published: 11/21/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 05/14/2001
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Yasutomi Kitahara
• Original Assignee: Yasutomi Kitahara
• Inventors: Kitahara, Yasutomi
• Application Number:
  US10/143,950
• Publication Number:
  US 20020174049A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/36
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

The apparatus for supporting an investment decision making is provided with profit model editing section which creates or modifies a profit model which shows a relationship between any parameter and cash flow; data set editing section which creates and modified a data set including values of the parameter; a case saving section which saves a case where a profit model is associated with one or plural data sets; and an analysis processing section which performs various analysis processings of a working case comprising the profit model of the case which has been saved by the case saving unit and the one data set or one of the plurality of data sets as the minimum unit of simulation.

Claims

1. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making, comprising:

a profit model editing unit which creates or modifies a profit model which shows a relationship between any parameter and cash flow;

a data set editing unit which creates and modified a data set including values of the parameter;

a case saving unit which saves a case where a profit model which has been created or modified by the profit model editing unit is associated with one or plural data sets which have been created or modified by the data set editing unit;

an analysis processing unit which performs various analysis processings of a working case comprising the profit model of the case which has been saved by the case saving unit and the one data set or one of the plurality of data sets as the minimum unit of simulation; and

a display unit which displays the analysis result obtained by the analysis processing performed by the analysis processing unit.

2. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, further comprising a case editing unit which edits the case.

3. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 2, wherein the case editing unit sets an assumption value to time series data.

4. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, wherein the profit model is for calculating the cash flow during a full or partial lifetime of a product from a research and development until a sales finish.

5. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, wherein the profit model is constituted by a tree structure.

6. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, wherein the parameter is a parameter relating to either one of a macro economic indicator, a price of the product and a resource volume of the product.

7. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, wherein the data set further includes information on uncertainty.

8. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 7, wherein the information on uncertainty is a value of a range or distribution representing uncertainty.

9. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, wherein, when the profit model editing unit creates or modifies the profit model, the profit model editing unit extracts an error of a computing logic.

10. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, wherein, when the profit model editing unit creates or modifies the profit model, the profit model editing unit extracts an error of a circulation reference where a computing logic is circulated according to a reference item.

11. An apparatus for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 1, wherein, in a sensitivity analysis performing analysis about how a modification of the assumption value included in the profit model influences a business value, Tornado chart is used, sensitivities to measurement values obtained when the assumption value is modified are indicated with widths of the bar graphs, the bar graphs are represented in the order from the larger value of the widths thereof from the top, and a bar graph where the assumption value is equal to or less than a base value is represented with a color different from a color of a bar graph where the assumption value is more than the base value.

13. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, further comprising a case editing step of editing the case.

14. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 13, wherein the case editing step set an assumption value to time series data.

15. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein the profit model is for calculating the cash flow during a full or partial lifetime of a product from a research and development until a sales finish.

16. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein the profit model is constituted by a tree structure.

17. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein the parameter is a parameter relating to either one of a macro economic indicator, a price of the product and a resource volume of the product.

18. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein the data set further includes information on uncertainty.

19. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 18, wherein the information on uncertainty is a value of a range or distribution representing uncertainty.

20. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein, when the profit model editing step creates or modifies the profit model, the profit model editing unit extracts an error of a computing logic.

21. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein, when the profit model editing step creates or modifies the profit model, the profit model editing unit extracts an error of a circulation reference where a computing logic is circulated according to a reference item.

22. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein, in a sensitivity analysis performing analysis about how a modification of the assumption value included in the profit model influences a business value, Tornado chart is used, sensitivities to measurement values obtained when the assumption value is modified are indicated with widths of the bar graphs, the bar graphs are represented in the order from the larger value of the widths thereof from the top, and a bar graph where the assumption value is equal to or less than a base value is represented with a color different from a color of a bar graph where the assumption value is more than the base value.

24. The computer program according to claim 23, further comprising a case editing step of editing the case.

25. The computer program according to claim 24, wherein the case editing step set an assumption value to time series data.

26. The computer program according to claim 23, wherein the profit model is for calculating the cash flow during a full or partial lifetime of a product from a research and development until a sales finish.

27. The computer program according to claim 23, wherein the profit model is constituted by a tree structure.

28. The computer program according to claim 23, wherein the parameter is a parameter relating to either one of a macro economic indicator, a price of the product and a resource volume of the product.

29. A method for supporting an investment decision making according to claim 12, wherein the data set further includes information on uncertainty.

30. The computer program according to claim 29, wherein the information on uncertainty is a value of a range or distribution representing uncertainty.

31. The computer program according to claim 23, wherein, when the profit model editing step creates or modifies the profit model, the profit model editing unit extracts an error of a computing logic.

32. The computer program according to claim 23, wherein, when the profit model editing step creates or modifies the profit model, the profit model editing unit extracts an error of a circulation reference where a computing logic is circulated according to a reference item.

33. The computer program according to claim 23, wherein, in a sensitivity analysis performing analysis about how a modification of the assumption value included in the profit model influences a business value, Tornado chart is used, sensitivities to measurement values obtained when the assumption value is modified are indicated with widths of the bar graphs, the bar graphs are represented in the order from the larger value of the widths thereof from the top, and a bar graph where the assumption value is equal to or less than a base value is represented with a color different from a color of a bar graph where the assumption value is more than the base value.

12. A method for supporting an investment decision making comprising:

a profit model editing step of creating or changing a profit model which shows a relationship between any parameter and a cash flow;

a data set editing step of creating or changing a data set including values of the parameter;

a case saving step of saving a case where one profit model created or modified in the profit model editing step is associated with one or plural data sets which has been created or modified in the data set editing step;

an analysis processing step of performing various analysis processings of a working case comprising the profit model of the case which has been saved in the case saving step the one data set or one of the plural data sets as a minimum unit of simulation; and

a display step of displaying an analysis result obtained by the analysis processing in the analysis processing step.

23. A computer program containing instructions which when executes on a computer a uses the computer to perform:

a profit model editing step of creating or changing a profit model which shows a relationship between any parameter and a cash flow;

a data set editing step of creating or changing a data set including values of the parameter;

a case saving step of saving a case where one profit model created or modified in the profit model editing step is associated with one or plural data sets which has been created or modified in the data set editing step;

an analysis processing step of performing various analysis processings of a working case comprising the profit model of the case which has been saved in the case saving step the one data set or one of the plural data sets as a minimum unit of simulation; and

a display step of displaying an analysis result obtained by the analysis processing in the analysis processing step.