Method and data structure for participation in multiple negotiations

• US 20020178127A1
• Filed: 03/08/2002
• Published: 11/28/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 03/23/2001
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. (HP Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. (HP Inc.)
• Inventors: Bartolini, Claudio, Byde, Andrew Robert, Preist, Christopher William
• Granted Patent: US 7,433,841 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/80
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0601 Electronic shopping [e-shopping]
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/188 Electronic negotiation

Abstract

A method of participating by a purchaser in a plurality of negotiations for purchasable items, where an item may be a good or a service, in order to obtain one of a plurality of alternative collections of complementary purchasable items, comprising maintaining a probabilistic model of said negotiations and making bids or offers to increase the probability of success in negotiations for purchasable items in one of said alternative collections determined from current states of said negotiations and said probabilistic model as providing a largest expectation of value to the purchaser.

Claims

1. A method of participating by a purchaser in a plurality of negotiations for purchasable items, where an item may be a good or a service, in order to obtain one of a plurality of alternative collections of complementary purchasable items, comprising:

maintaining a probabilistic model of said negotiations; and

making bids or offers to increase the probability of success in negotiations for purchasable items in one of said alternative collections determined from current states of said negotiations and said probabilistic model as providing a largest expectation of value to the purchaser.

2. A method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the purchaser is a software agent.

3. A method as claimed in claim 1 or claim 2, wherein said step of making bids or offers comprises placing bids or improving offers to improve the probability of leading in negotiations for the purchasable items in said one of said alternative collections.

4. An apparatus for participation in a plurality of negotiations for purchasable items in order to obtain one of a plurality of alternative collections of complementary purchasable items, comprising:

means for running a first software module arranged to provide a probabilistic model of said negotiations; and

means for running a second software module arranged to make bids or offers, wherein the second module makes bids or offers to increase the probability of success in negotiations for purchasable items in one of said alternative collections determined from current states of said negotiations and said probabilistic model as providing a largest expectation of value to the purchaser.

5. A method for a purchaser to bid in auctions to purchase a bundle of one or more purchasable items which together complete a predetermined requirement comprising the steps of:

a) identifying a plurality of such bundles, each bundle being of one or more items, the items of each bundle together satisfying said predetermined requirement;

b) calculating the expected eventual cost of purchasing each item of all the bundles;

c) calculating the expected eventual cost of purchasing each of said plurality of bundles of said one or more items from said expected eventual cost of each item of all the bundles;

d) calculating in respect of each bundle an associated eventual purchasing cost being at least the sum of the expected eventual cost of withdrawing from negotiation for all those items not in the respective bundles and for which the current state of negotiation entails some degree of commitment to their purchase; and

e) entering bids for those items of the bundle for which the sum of the expected eventual cost of the bundle and the associated expected eventual cost for that bundle is least.

6. The method of claim 5, in which the expected eventual cost of purchasing an item is calculated from the expected distribution of closing prices for said items.

7. The method of claim 6, in which the distribution of closing prices for said item is based on past histories of auctions for said item.

8. The method of claim 5, in which the expected eventual cost of purchasing each of said plurality of bundles is calculated by summing the expected eventual costs of the items in the respective bundles.

9. The method of claim 5, in which the expected eventual purchasing cost of withdrawing from auctions for all those items not in the respective bundles, where the agent has the current active bid in the auction, is calculated as the purchaser'"'"'s current bid for the item multiplied by the expected probability of the current bid being sufficient to purchase the item.

10. The method of claim 9, in which the expected probability of the current bid for an item being sufficient to purchase the item is calculated from the expected distribution of closing prices for said item.

11. The method of claim 10, in which the distribution of closing prices for said item is based on past histories of auctions for said item.

12. The method of claim 5, in which the purchase is a software agent.

13. The method of claim 5, in which the sellers of the purchasable items are identified by consultation with a matchmaker service.

16. The method of claim 15, in which the distribution of closing prices for said item is based on past histories of auctions for said item.

17. The method of claim 15, in which the expected eventual cost of purchasing each of said plurality of bundles is calculated by summing the expected eventual costs of the items in the respective bundles.

18. The method of claim 15, in which the expected eventual purchasing cost of withdrawing from auctions for all those items not in the respective bundles, where the agent has the current active bid in the auction, is calculated as the purchaser'"'"'s current bid for the item multiplied by the expected probability of the current bid being sufficient to purchase the item.

19. The method of claim 18, in which the expected probability of the current bid for an item being sufficient to purchase the item is calculated from the expected distribution of closing prices for said item.

20. The method of claim 19, in which the distribution of closing prices for said item is based on past histories of auctions for said item.

21. The method of claim 15, in which the purchase is a software agent.

22. The method of claim 15, in which the sellers of the purchasable items are identified by consultation with a matchmaker service.

24. The method of claim 23, in which the expected probability of the current bid for an item being sufficient to purchase the item is calculated from the expected distribution of closing prices for said item.

25. The method of claim 24, in which the distribution of closing prices for said item is based on past histories of auctions for said item.

26. The method of claim 23, in which the expected eventual cost of purchasing an item is calculated from the expected distribution of closing prices for said items.

27. The method of claim 26, in which the distribution of closing prices for said item is based on past histories of auctions for said item.

28. The method of claim 23, in which the expected eventual cost of purchasing each of said plurality of bundles is calculated by summing the expected eventual costs of the items in the respective bundles.

29. The method of claim 23, in which the purchase is a software agent.

30. The method of claim 23, in which the sellers of the purchasable items are identified by consultation with a matchmaker service.

14. A method of participating by a purchaser in a plurality of negotiations for purchasable items, where an item may be a good or a service, in order to obtain one of a plurality of alternative collections of complementary purchasable items, comprising:

maintaining a probabilistic model of said negotiations; and

making bids or offers to increase the probability of success in negotiations for purchasable items in one of said alternative collections determined from current states of said negotiations and said probabilistic model as providing a largest expectation of value to the purchaser, and wherein

said step of making bids or offers comprises placing bids or improving offers to improve the probability of leading in negotiations for the purchasable items in said one of said alternative collections.

15. A method for a purchaser to bid in auctions to purchase a bundle of one or more purchasable items which together complete a predetermined requirement comprising the steps of:

a) identifying a plurality of such bundles, each bundle being of one or more items, the items of each bundle together satisfying said predetermined requirement;

b) calculating the expected eventual cost of purchasing each item of all the bundles;

c) calculating the expected eventual cost of purchasing each of said plurality of bundles of said one or more items from said expected eventual cost of each item of all the bundles;

d) calculating in respect of each bundle an associated eventual purchasing cost being at least the sum of the expected eventual cost of withdrawing from negotiation for all those items not in the respective bundles and for which the current state of negotiation entails some degree of commitment to their purchase; and

e) entering bids for those items of the bundle for which the sum of the expected eventual cost of the bundle and the associated expected eventual cost for that bundle is least, and wherein

the expected eventual cost of purchasing an item is calculated from the expected distribution of closing prices for said items.

23. A method for a purchaser to bid in auctions to purchase a bundle of one or more purchasable items which together complete a predetermined requirement comprising the steps of:

a) identifying a plurality of such bundles, each bundle being of one or more items, the items of each bundle together satisfying said predetermined requirement;

b) calculating the expected eventual cost of purchasing each item of all the bundles;

c) calculating the expected eventual cost of purchasing each of said plurality of bundles of said one or more items from said expected eventual cost of each item of all the bundles;

d) calculating in respect of each bundle an associated eventual purchasing cost being at least the sum of the expected eventual cost of withdrawing from negotiation for all those items not in the respective bundles and for which the current state of negotiation entails some degree of commitment to their purchase; and

e) entering bids for those items of the bundle for which the sum of the expected eventual cost of the bundle and the associated expected eventual cost for that bundle is least, and wherein

f) the expected eventual purchasing cost of an item not in a given bundle is calculated as the purchaser'"'"'s current bid for the item multiplied by the expected probability of the current bid being sufficient to purchase the item.