Security analyst estimates performance viewing system and method

• US 20020184131A1
• Filed: 06/29/2001
• Published: 12/05/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 04/24/1998
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Refinitiv US Organization, LLC (Refinitiv US Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Thomson Reuters LLC (The Woodbridge Co. Ltd.)
• Inventors: Gatto, Joseph G.
• Granted Patent: US 7,539,637 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/36
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A system and method for measuring, analyzing, and tracking the past performance of security analysts'"'"' earnings estimates and recommendations. The present invention provides a database of historical data relating to security analyst earnings estimate predictions wherein a historical model enables users to view the historical data as a time series of earnings estimates for each analyst selected, for a selected period of time, for a predetermined earnings event. Users may define a model to automatically create enhanced composite estimates wherein an improved prediction of the quantity being estimated, such as company earnings, revenue or cash flow is obtained. Users may view performance screens and historical performance data for a particular contributor or various contributors for a given security. Other views may be available.

Claims

1. A system for monitoring analysts'"'"' estimates comprising:

means for storing on a per analyst basis, current estimate data for a plurality of analysts, the data including at least an estimate amount and when the estimate was made;

means for analyzing the current estimate data and determining when one or more alert conditions are satisfied; and

means for issuing an alert when at least one predetermined alert condition is satisfied for at least one analyst.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein one alert condition is based on whether an analyst'"'"'s estimate is older than a predetermined amount of time.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein one alert condition is based on whether an analyst'"'"'s estimate is older than a date associated with a detected cluster of revisions.

4. The system of claim 3, wherein the system further comprises means for defining conditions that constitute a cluster of estimate revisions, detecting a cluster of estimate revisions, and issuing at least one alert condition when an analyst'"'"'s estimate is older than a date associated with a detected cluster of estimate revisions.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein the at least one predetermined alert condition is based on whether an analyst'"'"'s estimate is more than a predetermined period of time older than a date associated with a detected cluster of estimate revisions.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein one alert condition is based on whether an analyst'"'"'s estimate differs from a summary metric of a plurality of analysts'"'"' estimates by a predetermined value.

7. The system of claim 6, wherein the summary metric comprises a measure of central tendency, the measure of central tendency comprising at least one of a mean, median, or mode.

8. The system of claim 6, wherein the summary metric comprises a conditional summary metric qualified by at least one qualifying metric.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the at least one qualifying metric comprises at least one of a predetermined time period, a particular security, or a group of securities.

10. The system of claim 6, wherein the predetermined value is more than “

n”

standard deviations away from a mean estimate, wherein “

n”

is an integer.

11. The system of claim 6, wherein the predetermined value comprises a currency unit.

12. The system of claim 6, wherein the predetermined value comprises a percentage.

13. The system of claim 1, wherein the system comprises means for displaying an analyst, the analyst'"'"'s estimates, and simultaneously displaying an alert indicator in association with an individual analyst'"'"'s estimate if the estimate satisfies at least one alert condition.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the system comprises means for further displaying data associated with the alert condition.

15. The system of claim 14, wherein the data associated with the alert condition comprises at least one of an indication of the alert condition or conditions that triggered the alert.

16. The system of claim 14, wherein the data associated with the alert condition comprises data relating to when the alert condition was triggered.

17. The system of claim 14, wherein the data associated with the alert condition comprises at least one of an indication of the alert condition or conditions that triggered the alert;

and displaying when the data associated with the alert condition was triggered.

18. The system of claim 1, wherein the system comprises means for displaying a list of a plurality of analysts estimates, where the list comprises a group of analysts for which there is at least one satisfied alert condition.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein the group of analysts further comprises at least one of analysts associated with a particular firm, or analysts with estimates in a particular industry.

20. The system of claim 1, wherein the system comprises means for displaying a list of a plurality of analysts'"'"' estimates, where the list consists of analysts for which there is at least one satisfied alert condition and further displaying data associated with the alert condition.

21. The system of claim 1, further comprising means for enabling a user to view all alerts associated with at least one analyst.

22. The system of claim 1, further comprising means for enabling a user to view selected alerts associated with at least one analyst.

23. The system of claim 1, further comprising means for enabling a user to view all alerts associated with at least one analyst for at least one selected time period.

24. The system of claim 1, further comprising means for enabling a user to view selected alerts associated with at least one analyst for at least one selected time period.

25. The system of claim 1, wherein alert conditions are defined by a user of the system.

26. The system of claim 1, wherein a user specifies an action to be taken when an alert condition is satisfied.

27. The system of claim 26, wherein the action comprises issuing an alert message to a predetermined device.

28. The system of claim 27, wherein the predetermined device comprises at least one of an e-mail, phone, fax, or pager device.

29. The system of claim 1, wherein an alert message is sent to a specified recipient when an alert condition is satisfied for an estimate made by an analyst.

30. The system of claim 29, wherein the specified recipient is the analyst.

31. The system of claim 29, wherein the specified recipient is someone associated with the analyst.

32. The system of claim 1, wherein a user specifies the frequency with which the system should check for alert conditions being satisfied.

33. The system of claim 1, wherein a user specifies how often the system should issue user alerts that at least one alert condition has been satisfied.

34. The system of claim 1, wherein the estimate relates to an estimate of a security'"'"'s earnings estimate for a fiscal period.

35. The system of claim 34, wherein the fiscal period comprises at least one of a fiscal quarter, plurality of fiscal quarters, fiscal year, or a plurality of fiscal years.

36. The system of claim 1, wherein the estimate comprises a financial projection.

37. The system of claim 1, wherein an analyst has the capability of changing or confirming an estimate in response to an alert.

38. The system of claim 37, wherein an alert indicator changes when an analyst has taken action in response to the alert.

39. The system of claim 37, wherein the system provides a different visual representation of an alert indicator depending on an action taken in response to the alert.

40. A method for monitoring analysts'"'"' estimates, comprising the steps of:

storing on a per analyst basis, current estimate data for a plurality of analysts, the data including at least an estimate amount and when the estimate was made;

analyzing the current estimate data and determining when one or more alert conditions are satisfied; and

issuing an alert when at least one predetermined alert condition is satisfied for at least one analyst.