System, method and computer program product for risk-minimization and mutual insurance relations in meteorology dependent activities
First Claim
1. A method of translating environmental forecast data to an operations data associated with providing electrical power produced from a renewable power generation facility to a power grid, comprising steps of:
- sensing environmental factors that affect an amount of electrical power generated by the renewable power generation facility;
developing an environmental forecast from said environmental factors sensed in said sensing step;
committing to deliver at least a portion of a unit of power from said renewable power generation facility at a predetermined time; and
developing a trading position for said unit of power based on an uncertainty in said environmental forecast.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A system, method and computer program product for minimizing risks associated with meteorology dependent activity. Such activity may include operation of renewable power sources and the delivery of power output from those renewable sources for sale on a market. The system and method identify risks to market participants in the event of possible shortfall, and provide metrics and mitigation processes for addressing the risks before the contractual breaches occurs for failure to deliver power, or imbalances occurred in grid operations.
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Citations
50 Claims
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1. A method of translating environmental forecast data to an operations data associated with providing electrical power produced from a renewable power generation facility to a power grid, comprising steps of:
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sensing environmental factors that affect an amount of electrical power generated by the renewable power generation facility;
developing an environmental forecast from said environmental factors sensed in said sensing step;
committing to deliver at least a portion of a unit of power from said renewable power generation facility at a predetermined time; and
developing a trading position for said unit of power based on an uncertainty in said environmental forecast. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3)
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4. A method for trading electrical power produced from a renewable power generation facility, comprising steps of:
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forecasting at a predetermined time an amount of electric power output from said renewable power generation facility for delivery at a predetermined delivery time, wherein said electric power output is a function of an environmental condition when said electrical power is generated;
developing a trading position based on an environmental forecast uncertainty;
bidding on a futures contract on a power exchange for delivering a predetermined unit of power at a predetermined future time;
reforecasting said electric power output at another predetermined time closer to said predetermined delivery time than said predetermined time; and
adjusting said trading position based an uncertainty in an environmental reforecast developed in said reforecasting step.
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5. A method for operating a power exchange options market, comprising steps of:
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receiving bids for power units to be supplied to the power exchange options market;
exchanging power for energy held by a virtual energy storage mechanism;
compensating for a variation in power production by a renewable power generation facility by trading at least one of a standardized call option and a standardized put option on power produced by an other power producer; and
adjusting a threshold for trading the at least one of a standardized call option and a standardized put option based on an environmental forecast and an environmental forecast error prediction. - View Dependent Claims (6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 36, 37, 38, 40, 41, 42, 43)
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19. A method for operating a bilateral options market, comprising steps of:
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compensating for a variation in power production by a renewable power generation facility by providing power from an other power production facility arranged by at least one of a bilateral contract and trading a bilateral option to trade power so as to meet an obligation for at least one of a specific renewable power generation facility and a set of renewable power generation facilities;
customizing the bilateral option to fulfill a need of the at least one of a specific renewable power generation facility and a set of renewable power generation facilities; and
adjusting a strategy for trading the bilateral option based on a meteorological forecast and a meteorological forecast error prediction.
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34. A method for mitigating risk across a power grid, comprising steps of.
calculating a summed power production differential for a set of renewable and non-renewable power generation facilities on the power grid; -
contrasting the summed power production differential with a predetermined level of grid power production differential coupled to a predetermined acceptable level of grid frequency fluctuation; and
executing at least one of a predetermined production action with an other power producer and a predetermined load shedding action with a consumer, wherein the summed power production differential includes a transmission limitation and a transmission loss.
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35. A method for operating a renewable power prediction market, comprising steps of:
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receiving requests for a dataset about at least one of a renewable power generation facility and a set of renewable power generation facilities;
reading data from a power prediction market database;
retrieving environmental data;
forecasting renewable energy levels; and
calculating an environmental forecast error.
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39. A computer-based system for reducing financial risk for a renewable power generation facility, comprising:
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a computer bus;
a central processor connected to the computer bus;
an environmental forecasting mechanism connected to the computer bus;
an environmental forecast error determination mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to estimate an environmental forecast error;
a power production prediction mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to predict an amount of power output by a renewable facility at a predetermined future time;
a computer-based program hosted in the central processor and configured to combine the environmental forecast error with pricing data for a unit of power offered on the power exchange;
a risk assessment mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to assess a financial risk associated with using forecast data from the environmental forecasting mechanism to make production predictions for electrical power produced by the renewable power generation facility; and
an external interface configured to exchange information and results to external devices.
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44. A renewable power prediction database, comprising:
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a memory having data fields, one of said data fields including a data structure containing data descriptive of at least one of local renewable power production capabilities and status, a competitors power production capabilities and status, a predicted grid capacity, and a grid capacity expansion needs, wherein a content of said data structure being included in a signal communicated to a processor for coordinating power production levels of a renewable power generation facility and another power generation facility. - View Dependent Claims (45)
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46. An apparatus for translating environmental forecast data to an operations data associated with providing electrical power produced from a renewable power generation facility to a power grid, comprising:
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a computer bus;
a central processor;
an environmental forecasting mechanism;
a risk assessment mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to assess a financial risk associated with using forecast data from the environmental forecasting mechanism to make production predictions for electrical power produced by the renewable power generation facility;
means for sensing environmental factors that affect electrical power generated by the renewable power generation facility;
means for developing an environmental forecast based on statistical information from said environmental factors sensed by said means for sensing;
means for committing to deliver a portion of a unit of power from said renewable power generation facility at a predetermined time; and
means for developing a trading position for said unit of power based on an uncertainty in said environmental forecast.
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47. An apparatus for trading electrical power produced from a renewable energy power producer, comprising:
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a computer bus;
a central processor;
an environmental forecasting mechanism;
a risk assessment mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to assess a financial risk associated with using forecast data from the environmental forecasting mechanism to make production predictions for electrical power produced by the renewable power generation facility;
means for forecasting at a predetermined time an electric power output from said renewable energy power producer for delivery at a predetermined delivery time, wherein said electric power output is a function of an environmental condition when said electrical power is generated;
means for developing a trading position based on an environmental forecast uncertainty;
means for bidding on a futures contract on a power exchange for a predetermined unit of power at a predetermined future time;
means for reforecasting said electric power output at another predetermined time closer to said predetermined delivery time than said predetermined time; and
means for adjusting said trading position based an environmental reforecast uncertainty.
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48. An apparatus for operating a power exchange options market, comprising:
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a computer bus;
a central processor;
an environmental forecasting mechanism;
a risk assessment mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to assess a financial risk associated with using forecast data from the environmental forecasting mechanism to make production predictions for electrical power produced by the renewable power generation facility;
means for receiving bids for power units to be supplied to the power exchange options market;
means for exchanging power for energy held by a virtual energy storage mechanism;
means for compensating for a variation in power production by a renewable power generation facility by trading at least one of a standardized call option and a standardized put option on power produced by an other power producer; and
means for adjusting a threshold for trading the at least one of a standardized call option and a standardized put option based on an environmental forecast and an environmental forecast error prediction.
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49. An apparatus for operating a bilateral options market, comprising:
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a computer bus;
a central processor;
an environmental forecasting mechanism;
a risk assessment mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to assess a financial risk associated with using forecast data from the environmental forecasting mechanism to make production predictions for electrical power produced by the renewable power generation facility;
means for compensating for a variation in power production by a renewable power generation facility from an other power producer by trading at least one of a bilateral option to trade power to meet an obligation for at least one of a specific renewable power generation facility and a set of renewable power generation facilities;
means for customizing the at least one of a bilateral option to fulfill a need of the at least one of a specific renewable power generation facility and a set of renewable power generation facilities; and
means for adjusting a strategy for trading the at least one of a bilateral option based on a meteorological forecast and a meteorological forecast error prediction.
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50. An apparatus for mitigating risk across a power grid associated with renewable power sources, comprising:
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a computer bus;
a central processor;
an environmental forecasting mechanism;
a risk assessment mechanism connected to the computer bus and configured to assess a financial risk associated with using forecast data from the environmental forecasting mechanism to make production predictions for electrical power produced by the renewable power generation facility;
means for calculating a summed power production differential for a set of renewable and non-renewable power generation facilities on the power grid;
means for contrasting the summed power production differential with a predetermined level of grid power production differential coupled to a predetermined acceptable level of grid frequency fluctuation; and
means for executing at least one of a predetermined production action with an other power producer and a predetermined load shedding action with a consumer.
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Specification