Predictive method

• US 20030036890A1
• Filed: 04/30/2001
• Published: 02/20/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 04/30/2001
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Heuristics
• Original Assignee: Heuristics
• Inventors: Thumrugoti, Sreekanth, Billet, Bradford E.
• Application Number:
  US09/846,605
• Publication Number:
  US 20030036890A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 703/2
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202

Abstract

A method and system for forecasting using pattern recognition and extension software. Models of the present invention select patterns from a library that match historical data and extend them into the future to make forecasts that can be used with a variety of predictive technologies.

Claims

1. A method of addressing the occurrence of event, comprising:

(a) identifying a set of formulae;

(b) establishing a pattern based upon said formulae for points in time when an event occurred which pattern is independent of the event;

(c) calculating a set of values based on historical data for said points in time;

(d) comparing said pattern to said set of values at said points in time to establish a relationship;

(e) extending said relationship into the future to predict an occurrence of said event; and

(f) addressing the occurrence of said event before it occurs.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said addressing step includes identifying one or more variables contributing to the occurrence of said event, and altering the value of said variable in order to change the occurrence or magnitude of said event.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein said addressing step includes preparing for the occurrence of the event.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein said addressing step includes taking remedial measures to lessen damage or injury from the event.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein said event is disease outbreak.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein said disease is animal disease.

7. The method of claim 5, wherein said disease is human disease.

8. The method of claim 5, wherein said disease is plant disease.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein said disease is agricultural disease.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein said disease is crop disease.

11. The method of claim 3, wherein said addressing step includes at least one of the following:

taking measures to avoid said disease outbreak, preparing medical treatment for victims of said disease outbreak, increasing production, applying pesticides, hedging against crop shortages, and arranging for substitute food supplies.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein said measures to avoid said disease outbreak include but are not limited to administering vaccinations and other treatment regimes as dictated by method.

13. The method of claim 1, further comprising adjusting input data upon which said calculated values are based in order to optimize a desired result related to said occurrence.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein said event is a parameter upon which one or more other events depend, and the method of claim 1 is performed for each such parameter.

15. A method of addressing the occurrence of an event, comprising:

(a) developing a set of formulae that are mathematical functions of elapsed time but independent of the occurrence of the event;

(b) establishing a mathematical relationship between past occurrence of such event and a combination of one or more said formulae involving elapsed time;

(c) extending said relationship into the future to predict an occurrence of the event; and

(d) addressing the occurrence of the event before it occurs.