Algorithm for estimating the outcome of inflammation following injury or infection

• US 20030087285A1
• Filed: 08/30/2002
• Published: 05/08/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 08/30/2001
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: University Of Pittsburgh (University of Pittsburgh of The Commonwealth System of Higher Education)
• Original Assignee: University Of Pittsburgh (University of Pittsburgh of The Commonwealth System of Higher Education)
• Inventors: Clermont, Gilles, Chow, Carson C., Vodovotz, Yoram
• Application Number:
  US10/233,166
• Publication Number:
  US 20030087285A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 435/6
• CPC Class Codes: G01N 33/6869 Interleukin
• CPC Class Codes: G01N 33/84 involving inorganic compounds or pH
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 50/50 for simulation or modelling of medical disorders

Abstract

A mathematical prognostic in which changes in a number of physiologically significant factors are measured and interpolated to determine a “damage function” incident to bacterial infection or other serious inflammation. By measuring a large number of physiologically significant factors including, but not limited to, Interleukin 6 (IL6), Interleukin 10 (IL10), Nitric Oxide (NO), and others, it is possible to predict life versus death by the damage function, dD/dt, which measures and interpolates differential data for a plurality of factors. In mammals, an IL6/NO ratio <8 at 12 hours post infection is highly predictive (60%) of mortality; also in mammals, an IL6/NO ratio <4 at 24 hours post infection is highly predictive (52%) of mortality; and an IL6/IL10 ratio in mammals of <7.5 at 24 hours post infection is highly predictive (68%) of mortality.

Claims

1. A method for prognosing the life or death outcome of an animal or patient in which bacterial infection or inflammation is present, comprising measuring at least two physiological factors significant to the progress of bacterial infection or inflammation and predicting the likelihood of death.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the likelihood of death is governed by a damage function dD/dt, and wherein the damage function dD/dt is determined according to the differential equations:

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the damage function is evidenced by a value selected from the group consisting of the ratio of IL6/NO and the ratio of IL6/IL10 at a predetermined point after the onset of infection.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the damage function is evidenced according to the ratio of IL6/NO and further wherein when the IL6/NO ratio is <

8 at 12 hours post infection, the likelihood of mortality is about 60%.

5. The method according to claim 3, wherein the damage function is evidenced according to the ratio of IL6/NO and further wherein when the IL6/NO ratio is <

4 at 24 hours post infection, the likelihood of mortality is about 52%.

6. The method according to claim 3, wherein the damage function is evidenced according to the ratio of IL6/IL10 and further wherein when the IL6/IL10 ratio is <

7.5 at 24 hours post infection, the likelihood of mortality is about 68%.

7. A method for evaluating a drug candidate, comprising enhancing the meaning of an animal model study by comparing inflammation or infection data from said animal study with human data collected from human clinical trials, said human data being considered according to the equations