Managing risk using macro-financial risk analysis

• US 20030093347A1
• Filed: 10/09/2002
• Published: 05/15/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 03/15/2000
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Dale F. Gray
• Original Assignee: Dale F. Gray
• Inventors: Gray, Dale F.
• Application Number:
  US10/268,042
• Publication Number:
  US 20030093347A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

The disclosed technology enables a software application program, executed by a processor of a digital data processing device, to analyze and model economic/financial risk associated with sovereigns, financial sectors, non-financial sectors, and/or investment portfolios. The disclosed technology can calculate and assess, for example, contingent claim values, asset values, volatilities, default barriers, and monetary parameters from financial and macroeconomic data associated with government and monetary authorities and can use such calculations to calibrate risk models and generate economic balance sheets for an economy useful in valuation, risk and vulnerability analysis, risk mitigation, design of investment strategies, and policy analysis and design.

Claims

1. A method of assessing risk, comprising:

accessing macroeconomic data;

calculating at least one contingent claim value associated with the macroeconomic data;

forming at least one economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value; and

displaying at least one entry of the economic balance sheet in a user interface of a digital data processing device.

2. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

calibrating at least one parameter associated with a risk model using the contingent claim value;

calculating equilibrium values associated with the risk model; and

forming the economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value and equilibrium values.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein the calibrated parameter associated with the risk model is one of a share of near term debt, a share of a long term debt, a policy effectiveness parameter, a volatility of a liability, a risk free discount rate, a sovereign risk premium, a default recovery rate, an asset correlation parameter, and a tail factor.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the economic balance sheet includes data corresponding to a first sector.

5. The method of claim 4 further comprising:

forming a second economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value, the second economic balance sheet including data corresponding to a second sector; and

associating at least some of the data corresponding to the first sector with at least some of the data corresponding to the second sector.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein the macroeconomic data corresponds to at least one of a government and a monetary authority.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein the contingent claim value is associated with at least one of a monetary transactions value and money.

8. The method of claim 1 wherein the contingent claim value corresponds to an implicit call option on assets of at least one of a government and a monetary authority.

9. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

determining the contingent claim value from at least one of a default bartier, a monetary transactions value, and an amount of RM.

10. The method of claim 9 further comprising:

estimating the monetary transactions value using a foregone income.

11. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

determining the contingent claim value from at least one of a real exchange rate, a sovereign local currency debt, a price index, and an amount of RM.

12. A software application program for assessing risk, comprising:

instructions affecting the operation of a processor in a digital data processing device, the processor executing at least some of the instructions to

access macroeconomic data;

calculate at least one contingent claim value associated with the macroeconomic data;

form at least one economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value; and

display at least one entry of the economic balance sheet in a user interface of a digital data processing device.

13. The program of claim 12 wherein the processor executes at least one of the instructions to:

calibrate at least one parameter associated with a risk model using the contingent claim value;

calculate equilibrium values associated with the risk model; and

form the economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value and equilibrium values.

14. The program of claim 13 wherein the calibrated parameter associated with the risk model is one of a share of near term debt, a share of a long term debt, a policy effectiveness parameter, a volatility of a liability, a risk free discount rate, a sovereign risk premium, a default recovery rate, an asset correlation parameter, and a tail factor.

15. The program of claim 12 wherein the economic balance sheet includes data corresponding to a first sector.

16. The program of claim 15 wherein the processor executes at least one of the instructions to:

form a second economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value, the second economic balance sheet including data corresponding to a second sector; and

associate at least some of the data corresponding to the first sector with at least some of the data corresponding to the second sector.

17. The program of claim 12 wherein the macroeconomic data corresponds to at least one of a government and a monetary authority.

18. The program of claim 12 wherein the contingent claim value is associated with at least one of a monetary transactions value and money.

19. The program of claim 12 wherein the contingent claim value corresponds to an implicit call option on assets of at least one of a government and a monetary authority.

20. The program of claim 12 wherein the processor executes at least one of the instructions to:

determine the contingent claim value from at least one of a default barrier, a monetary transactions value, and an amount of RM.

21. The program of claim 20 wherein the processor executes at least one of the instructions to:

estimate the monetary transactions value using a foregone income.

22. The program of claim 12 wherein the processor executes at least one of the instructions to:

determine the contingent claim value from at least one of a real exchange rate, a sovereign local currency debt, a price index, and an amount of RM.

23. A system for assessing risk, comprising:

a means for accessing macroeconomic data;

a means for calculating at least one contingent claim value associated with the macroeconomic data;

a means for forming at least one economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value; and

a means for displaying at least one entry of the economic balance sheet in a user interface of a digital data processing device.

24. The system of claim 23 further comprising:

a means for calibrating at least one parameter associated with a risk model using the contingent claim value;

a means for calculating equilibrium values associated with the risk model; and

a means for forming the economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value and equilibrium values.

25. The system of claim 24 wherein the calibrated parameter associated with the risk model is one of a share of near term debt, a share of a long term debt, a policy effectiveness parameter, a volatility of a liability, a risk free discount rate, a sovereign risk premium, a default recovery rate, an asset correlation parameter, and a tail factor.

26. The system of claim 23 wherein the economic balance sheet includes data corresponding to a first sector.

27. The system of claim 26 further comprising:

a means for forming a second economic balance sheet using the contingent claim value, the second economic balance sheet including data corresponding to a second sector; and

a means for associating at least some of the data corresponding to the first sector with at least some of the data corresponding to the second sector.

28. The system of claim 23 wherein the macroeconomic data corresponds to at least one of a government and a monetary authority.

29. The system of claim 23 wherein the contingent claim value is associated with at least one of a monetary transactions value and money.

30. The system of claim 23 wherein the contingent claim value corresponds to an implicit call option on assets of at least one of a government and a monetary authority.

31. The system of claim 23 further comprising a means for determining the contingent claim value from at least one of a default barrier, a monetary transactions value, and an amount of RM.

32. The system of claim 31 further comprising a means for estimating the monetary transactions value using a foregone income.

33. The system of claim 23 further comprising a means for determining the contingent claim value from at least one of a real exchange rate, a sovereign local currency debt, a price index, and an amount of RM.