SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR STABILITY ANALYSIS OF PROFITABILITY OF TARGET MARKETS FOR GOODS OR SERVICES

• US 20030097292A1
• Filed: 11/22/1999
• Published: 05/22/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 09/30/1999
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: General Electric Company
• Original Assignee: Christopher L. Bernard
• Inventors: BONISSONE, PIERO PATRONE, DONOGHUE, JEREMIAH FRANCIS, CHEN, YU-TO, TRENCH, MARGARET STEWART
• Application Number:
  US09/444,659
• Publication Number:
  US 20030097292A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.28
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

This disclosure describes a system and method for providing stability analysis of profitability calculations of target markets for goods or services. The system and method of this disclosure uses an internal experience database and external demographic databases. The system and method evaluates demographic data and calculates the risk associated with a variety of different goods or services. The system and method comprises a number of steps. First, a data acquisition module associates descriptor variables with different goods or services in a portfolio of goods or services. Second, a risk model module processes the various goods or services into distinct groups based upon specified characteristics. The risk model module also calculates risk values for the various goods or services and sorts the portfolio of goods or services into specified categories. Third, a profitability module calculates the net present value of each of the goods or services in the entire portfolio. Finally, a stability analysis module calculates the stability of the profitability for all of the goods or services in the distinct groups based upon specified characteristics.

Claims

1. A method for providing stability analysis of profitability for different types of goods or services products comprising the steps of:

acquiring a list of products and attaching descriptor variables to said list of goods or services;

examining said list of products and said descriptor variables with a model;

calculating a profitability for said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model; and

calculating a stability of said profitability.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said step of calculating said stability of said profitability comprises:

selecting the number of samples in said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model to be processed; and

calculating a net present value for each of the number of samples selected.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein said step of calculating said net present value comprises:

calculating a premium sum for all of the number of samples selected;

calculating expected nominal cost sum for all of the number of samples selected;

calculating a products cost sum for all of the number of samples; and

subtracting said expected nominal cost sum and said products cost sum from said premium sum.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein said step of calculating said products cost sum comprises:

calculating a weighted expected products cost risk amount for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein said step calculating said weighted expected products cost risk amount comprises:

calculating actual products cost for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period;

calculating weighted expected products amount for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period; and

dividing said actual products cost by said weighted expected products amount.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein said step of calculating weighted expected products amount further comprises:

dividing said weighted expected products amount by a normalization constant.

7. The method of claim 2, wherein said step of calculating the stability of said profitability further comprises:

calculating a standard deviation of the net present value for all of the number of samples selected.

8. A system for providing stability analysis of profitability for different types of goods or services products comprising:

means for acquiring a list of products and attaching descriptor variables to said list of products;

means for examining said list of products and said descriptor variables with a model;

means for calculating a profitability for said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model; and

means for calculating a stability of said profitability.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein said calculating said stability of said profitability means comprises:

means for selecting the number of samples in said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model to be processed; and

means for calculating a net present value for each of the number of samples selected.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein said calculating net present value means further comprises:

means for calculating a premium sum for all of the number of samples selected;

means for calculating an expected nominal cost sum for all of the number of samples selected;

means for calculating a products cost sum for all of the number of samples selected; and

means for subtracting said expected nominal cost sum and said products cost sum from said premium sum.

11. The system of claim 10, wherein said calculating products cost sum means further comprises:

means for calculating a weighted expected products cost risk amount for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein said calculating said weighted expected products cost risk amount means further comprises:

means for calculating actual products cost for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period;

means for calculating weighted expected products amount for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period; and

means for dividing said actual products cost by said weighted expected products amount.

13. The system of claim 12, wherein said calculating weighted expected products amount means further comprises:

means for dividing said weighted expected products amount by a normalization constant.

14. The system of claim 9, wherein said calculating stability of profitability means further comprises:

means for calculating a standard deviation of the net present value for all of the number of samples selected.

15. A system for providing stability analysis of profitability for different types of goods or services products comprising:

data acquisition logic acquires a list of products and attaching descriptor variables to said list of goods or services;

risk model logic selects a model for examining said list of products and said descriptor variables;

profitability logic calculates a profitability for said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model; and

stability analysis logic calculates a stability of said profitability.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein said stability analysis logic further comprises:

a samples selection logic that selects the number of samples in said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model to be processed; and

a net present value logic that calculates a net present value for each of the number of samples selected.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein said net present value logic further comprises:

a premium logic that calculates a premium sum for all of the number of samples selected; and

an expected nominal cost logic that calculates an expected nominal cost sum for all of the number of samples selected.

18. The system of claim 17, further comprising:

a weighted expected products cost logic for calculating a weighted expected is products cost sum for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period; and

a subtracting logic that subtracts said weighted expected products cost sum and said expected nominal cost sum from said premium sum to compute said net present value.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein said weighted expected products cost logic further comprises:

an actual products cost logic that calculates actual products cost for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period;

an weighted expected products cost logic that calculates weighted expected products amount for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period; and

a first dividing logic that divides said actual products cost by said weighted expected products cost to compute a weighted expected products amount.

20. The system of claim 19, further comprises:

a first dividing logic that divides said weighted expected products amount by a normalization constant to compute said net present value.

21. The system of claim 16, wherein said stability analysis logic further comprises:

a standard deviation logic means for calculating a standard deviation of the net present value for all of the number of samples selected.

22. A computer readable recording medium having a program providing stability analysis of profitability for different types of goods or services products, said program comprising:

means for acquiring a list of products and attaching descriptor variables to said list of products;

means for examining said list of products and said descriptor variables with a model;

means for calculating a profitability for said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model; and

means for calculating a stability of said profitability.

23. The computer readable medium of claim 22, wherein the means for calculating said stability of said profitability includes:

a first routine selecting the number of samples in said list of products and said descriptor variables examined with said model to be processed; and

a second routine means for calculating a net present value, for each of the number of samples selected.

24. The computer readable medium of claim 23, wherein the means for calculating said stability of said profitability further includes:

a third routine means for calculating a premium sum for all of the number of samples selected;

a fourth routine means for calculating expected nominal cost sum for all of the number of samples selected;

a fifth routine means for calculating products cost sum for all of the number of samples selected; and

a sixth routine means for subtracting said expected nominal cost sum and said products cost sum from said premium sum (127).

25. The computer readable medium of claim 24, wherein the means for calculating said stability of said profitability further includes:

a seventh routine means for calculating a weighted expected products cost risk amount for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period.

26. The computer readable medium of claim 25, wherein the means for calculating said stability of said profitability further includes:

an eight routine means for calculating actual products cost for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period;

a ninth routine means for calculating weighted expected products amount for each of the number of samples selected in a predetermined time period; and

a tenth routine means for dividing said actual products cost by said weighted expected products amount.

27. The computer readable medium of claim 26, wherein the means for calculating said stability of said profitability further includes:

an eleventh routine means for dividing said weighted expected products amount by a normalization constant.

28. The computer readable medium of claim 23, wherein said calculating stability of profitability means further includes:

a twelfth routine means for calculating a standard deviation of the net present value for all of the number of samples selected.