Decision-support system for system performance management

• US 20030130975A1
• Filed: 11/12/2002
• Published: 07/10/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 01/27/2000
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Carole Muller
• Original Assignee: Carole Muller
• Inventors: Muller, Carole
• Application Number:
  US10/182,287
• Publication Number:
  US 20030130975A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/50
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

This method relates to the analysis in the performances of a system, whether economic or non-economic. The method by applying a specifically developed model isolates the components driving the dynamics of change over time or across locations. It may be used to analyse change, to monitor a pre-selected course or to project different potential scenarios in temporal analysis or in cross-comparison between locations. Besides its applications as a rapid assessment tool and as a management and strategic tool, it is also useful for data reengineering and in the predesign phase of complex analytical studies.

Claims

1. A method of analysing performance in the flow of items, the method comprising:

1) defining a first period of time starting at a first point in time and ending at a third point in time,

2) defining a second period of time starting at a fifth point in time and ending at a seventh point in time,

3) defining a group of items, identifying individual items, i, within the group,

4) defining a first market wherein the flow of the items, i, is analysed during the first period of time,

5) defining a second market wherein the flow of the items, i, is analysed during the second period of time,

6) determining, for each identified item, i, a first volume, q_i0, and/or a turnover in monetary terms, y_i0, transacted in the first market and during the first period of time,

7) determining, for each identified item, i, a second volume, q_i1, and/or a turnover in monetary terms, y_i1, transacted in the second market and during the second period of time,

8) determining, for each identified item, i, a price, p_i0, thereof in the first market and within the first period of time,

9) determining, for each identified item, i, a price, p_i1, thereof in the second market and within the second period of time,

10) providing information, Y₀, related to a total turnover in monetary terms of the items, i, in the first market and during the first period of time,

11) providing information, Y₁, related to a total turnover in monetary terms of the items, i, in the second market and during the second period of time,

12) providing information describing a difference, Δ

Y, in a transacted turnover for all items, i, from the first market during the first period of time to the second market during the second period of time,

13) providing information describing a difference, Δ

Q, in a transacted volume for all items, i, from the first market during the first period of time to the second market during the second period of time,

14) estimating, on the basis of the determined p_i0, p_i1 and q_i0, q_i1, and/or y_i0 and y_i1, information, Δ

P, describing a part of Y₁ which, compared to Y₀, stems from differences in prices of the items, i, from the first market and during the first period of time to the second market and during the second period of time,

15) providing to a user information relating to a difference between Δ

Y and a sum of Δ

Q and Δ

P.

2. A method according to claim 1, wherein step 15) comprises:

estimating, on the basis of the determined p_i0, p_i1 and q_i0, q_i1, and/or y_i0 and y_i1, information, Δ

X, describing which part of Y₁ compared to Y₀, stems from a difference in the relative composition of Y as defined by the relative share of each individual item, i, from the first market and during the first period of time as compared to the second market and during the second period of time.

3. A method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein step 12) comprises determining Δ

Y as;

4. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein step 13) comprises determining Δ

Q as

5. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein step 14) comprises determining Δ

P as Δ

P_a;

6. A method according to any of claims 1-4, wherein step 14) comprises determining Δ

P as Δ

P_p;

7. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein steps 6) and 8) comprise the steps of:

a) initially, at the first point in time, determining a price or item value for each identified item, i,

b) subsequently, at one or more second points in time when a change occurs in the group consisting of;

when a price of an item, i, changes,

when one of the items, i, is removed from the group,

when a new identified item, i, is introduced into the group,

when one of the items, i, is removed from the first market/location, and

when a new identified item, i, is introduced onto the first market/location, or

when specifications are changed, such as product contents, look, taste, usage, administration, standards,

b1) determining a price for all identified items, i, after the change,

b2) determining a turnover or performance value alternatively the transcted or transformed or consumed volume for each identified item, i, in the period from a previous second point in time or the first point in time to the actual, second point in time,

c) subsequent to step b) and at the third point in time, determining a price for all identified items, i, and a performance output for each identified item, i, on the period from the last second point in time to the third point in time.

8. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein steps 7) and 9) comprise the steps of:

a) initially, at the fifth point in time, determining a price for each identified item, i,

b) subsequently, at one or more sixth points in time when a change occurs in the group consisting of;

when a price of an item, i, changes,

when one of the items, i, is removed from the group,

when a new identified item, i, is introduced into the group,

when one of the items, i, is removed from the second market or location, and

when a new identified item, i, is introduced onto the second market or location, or

when specifications are changed, such as product contents, look, taste, usage, administration, standards,

b1) determining a price for all identified items, i, after the change,

b2) determining a turnover for each identified item, i, in the period from a previous sixth point in time or the fifth point in time to the actual, sixth point in time,

c) subsequent to step b) and at the seventh point in time, determining a price for all identified items, i, and a turnover for each identified item, i, on the period from the last sixth point in time to the seventh point in time.

9. A method according to claim 7 and/or 8, the method further comprising the step of:

at each second and/or sixth point in time as well as at the third and seventh points in time determining the parameters;

Δ

Y, Δ

Q, Δ

P, Δ

X,

and the parameter

10. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein Δ

X is calculated as

11. A method according to any of claims 1-9, wherein Δ

X is calculated as

12. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein step 3) comprises defining a group of items and further defining one or more subgroups of items, where the items of the subgroups are comprised within the group of items.

13. A method according to claim 12, wherein steps 10)-15) comprise providing, for both the group as well as for any subgroups, the information Y₀ and Y₁ and the information describing the differences Δ

Y and Δ

Q as well as estimating the information, Δ

P and providing the information related to a difference between Δ

Y and the sum of Δ

Q and Δ

P.

14. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein step 3) comprises defining the group or one or more subgroups of items as (a) group(s) of items having in common:

the brand of the items,

the intended use of the items,

the contents of the items,

the same class and/or subclass in a standard global classification system for products and services fx. OTC,

the country of origin or manufacture of the items,

the region of origin or manufacture of the items,

the same producer/manufacturer/importer/exporter/retailer/wholesaler, and/or any criteria meaningful to the analysis and collected in the data and present as a dimension in the data set submitted for analysis.

15. A method according to claim 14, wherein step 3) further comprises defining a group or subgroup of items as items having in common:

the same number of units in a packing,

the same concentration of an active ingredient,

the same colour,

the same taste,

the same shape,

the same product standard,

the same dosage,

the same administration form,

the same intended use,

the same subsidy rate,

and/or any criteria meaningful to the analysis and collected in the data and present as a dimension in the data set submitted for analysis.

16. A method according to any of the preceding claims, the method comprising:

informing the user, if Δ

X≠

0, that changes in demand patterns were responsible for part of the difference between Y₁ and Y₀ and optionally to what extent as measured by Δ

X and in the event of Δ

X=0, checking by default or asking whether the user requires further check in the subgroups of the Y for which the calculations was performed and if no subgroups are defined checking at item level to report to the user the possibility of trends cancelling out each other and resulting in 0.

17. A method according to any of the preceding claims, the method comprising:

informing the user, if Δ

P≠

0, that changes in prices were responsible for part of the difference between Y₁ and Y₀ and optionally to what extent as measured by Δ

P and in the event of Δ

P=0, checking by default or asking whether the user requires further check in the subgroups of the Y for which the calculations was performed and if no subgroups are defined checking at item level to report to the user the possibility of trends cancelling out each other and resulting in 0.

18. A method according to any of the preceding claims, the method comprising:

informing the user, if Δ

Q≠

0, that changes in volumes were responsible for part of the difference between Y₁ and Y₀ and optionally to what extent as measured by Δ

Q and in the event of Δ

P=0, checking by default or asking whether the user requires further check in the subgroups of the Y for which the calculations was performed and if no subgroups are defined checking at item level to report to the user the possibility of trends cancelling out each other and resulting in 0.

19. A method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein steps 1), 2), 4), and 5) comprise defining at least substantially coinciding periods of time and first and second markets or place of performance which differ for example in the locational or in other dimensions as the intended usage of a product or the target group or other dimensions.

20. A method according to any of claims 1-16, wherein 1), 2), 4), and 5) comprise defining different periods of time and at least substantially identical markets.

21. A method according to any of the preceding claims, further comprising the step of illustrating visually information related to Δ

P, Δ

Q and Δ

X, and Δ

Y and y₀ and y₁, as well as other dimensions of the data set.

22. A method according to claim 21, wherein the indicator values are visualised by graphical means such as a 3D bar diagram where the length of each bar reflects the turnover of that item or that group in period y, and for each bar a set of 4 buttons displaying the indicator value illustrating the value for each item or group of Δ

Y, Δ

P, Δ

Q and Δ

X is displayed

23. A method according to claim 21 or 22, wherein the intervals of the product mix index is graphically shown as a colour of the graphical means, so that a colour complies to a interval, such as choosing for example a duo-chrome scale with red for positive and blue for negative values, for high positive values of Δ

X the brighter red the colour and for low negative values (high numerical value but below

     0) the darker blue the colour.

24. A method of simulating item flow, the method comprising performing the method according to claim 1, wherein steps 6)-9) comprise providing expected future prices or item values and/or volumes and/or composition of Y in terms of items entering into Y and/or performance output.

25. A method according to claim 24, wherein the expected future prices or item values and volumes and composition of Y in terms of items entering, into Y and/or performances are real, determined prices and volumes and composition at item level and/or turnovers which are transformed to represent the expected future prices and volumes and/or turnovers.

26. A method of monitoring item flow, the method comprising the method according to claim 1 and the further steps of:

establishing a desired development for at least one of Y1, Y2, Δ

X, Δ

Y, Δ

P, and/or Δ

Q, and/or at the level of y₁, y₂, Δ

Y, Δ

P, Δ

Q (item level)

automating the process of informing a user or operator if this development is not followed together with information as to the extent and coordinates of the deviation.

27. A computer system performing the method according to any of the preceding claims.

28. A computer program comprising computer program code means adapted to perform all the steps of claim 1

29. A computer program comprising computer program code means adapted to perform all the steps of claim 21 , 22 and 23 to support the visualisation when said program is run on a computer.

30. A computer program according to claim 28 and claim 29 embodied on a computer readable medium.