Methods and systems for risk evaluation

• US 20030182337A1
• Filed: 02/12/2003
• Published: 09/25/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 02/13/2002
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: SAP SE
• Original Assignee: SAP AG (SAP SE)
• Inventors: Fleckenstein, Thomas, Wefers, Marcus
• Granted Patent: US 7,599,848 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 708/490
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

A method, system and computer product for risk evaluation. A computer assigns a risk to an object. The object has an object measure-value and the risk has at least one threat level. The computer receives a probability of the at least one threat level. The probability refers to the object. The computer calculates the object measure-value by using the probability of the at least one threat level and by using a deviation-value that corresponds to the at least one threat level and relates to the object.

Claims

1. A method for risk evaluation comprising the steps:

assigning a risk to an object, wherein the object has an object measure-value and the risk has at least one threat level;

receiving a probability of the at least one threat level, wherein the probability refers to the object; and

calculating the object measure-value by using the probability of the at least one threat level and by using a deviation-value that corresponds to the at least one threat level and relates to the object.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the deviation-value has a value type selected from the group of absolute number, absolute delta, percentage and percentage delta.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the calculating step comprises:

multiplying the deviation-value with the probability;

multiplying at least a further deviation-value of a further threat level of the risk with a corresponding further probability;

adding the results of the multiplying steps resulting in an expectation-value of the risk with regards to the object 111-MV; and

adjusting the object measure-value with the expectation-value.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein the calculating step comprises:

multiplying the deviation-value with the probability;

multiplying at least a further deviation-value of a further threat level of the risk with a corresponding further probability;

adding the results of the multiplying steps resulting in an expectation-value of the risk with regards to the object 111-MV; and

adjusting the object measure-value with the expectation-value.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the object is a component of a scorecard.

6. The method of claim 2, wherein the object is a component of a scorecard.

7. The method of claim 3, wherein the object is a component of a scorecard.

8. The method of claim 4, wherein the object is a component of a scorecard.

9. The method of claim 5, comprising:

providing at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the score-card; and

aggregating the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

10. The method of claim 6, comprising:

providing at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the score-card; and

aggregating the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

11. The method of claim 7, comprising:

providing at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the score-card; and

aggregating the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

12. The method of claim 8, comprising:

providing at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the score-card; and

aggregating the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

13. A method as in any one of claims 1-12, wherein the object comprises at least one of strategy, strategy-element, perspective, objective, target and measure.

14. A method as in any one of claims 1-12, wherein the risk is a component of a risk-catalogue.

15. A computer program product embodied by a computer-readable medium, the computer program product comprising instructions to cause a processor of a computer to execute the steps of:

assigning a risk to an object, wherein the object has an object measure-value and the risk has at least one threat level;

receiving a probability of the at least one threat level, wherein the probability refers to the object; and

calculating the object measure-value by using the probability of the at least one threat level and by using a deviation-value that corresponds to the at least one threat level and relates to the object.

16. The computer-readable medium of claim 15, comprising instructions for:

multiplying the deviation-value with the probability;

multiplying at least a further deviation-value of a further threat level of the risk with a corresponding further probability;

adding the results of the multiplying steps resulting in an expectation-value of the risk with regards to the object; and

adjusting the object measure-value with the expectation-value.

17. The computer-readable medium of claim 15, wherein the object is a component of a score-card.

18. The computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the object is a component of a score-card.

19. The computer-readable medium of claim 17, comprising instructions for:

providing at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the score-card; and

aggregating the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

20. The computer-readable medium of claim 18, comprising instructions for:

providing at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the score-card; and

aggregating the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

21. A risk evaluation system comprising:

at least one memory for storing an object, a risk and an assignment structure;

at least one processor for executing program instructions for assigning the risk to the object using the assignment structure, wherein the object has an object measure-value and the risk has at least one threat level;

a bus for receiving a probability of the at least one threat level, wherein the probability refers to the object; and

the at least one processor for executing program instructions for calculating the object measure-value by using the probability of the at least one threat level and by using a deviation-value that corresponds to the at least one threat level and relates to the object.

22. The system of claim 21, wherein the at least one processor for executing program instructions for calculating the object measure-value executes program instructions to:

multiply the deviation-value with the probability,

multiply at least a further deviation-value of a further threat level of the risk with a corresponding further probability;

add the results of the multiplying steps resulting in an expectation-value of the risk with regards to the object; and

adjust the object measure-value with the expectation-value.

23. The system of claim 21, wherein the object is a component of a scorecard stored by the at least one memory.

24. The system of claim 22, wherein the object is a component of a scorecard stored by the at least one memory.

25. The system of claim 21, wherein the at least one memory stores at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the scorecard;

and wherein the at least one processor executes program instructions to aggregate the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

26. The system of claim 22, wherein the at least one memory stores at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the scorecard;

and wherein the at least one processor executes program instructions to aggregate the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

27. The system of claim 23, wherein the at least one memory stores at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the scorecard;

and wherein the at least one processor executes program instructions to aggregate the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

28. The system of claim 24, wherein the at least one memory stores at least a further score-card, wherein the further score-card is substantially equivalent to the score-card and has a similar object, which is similar to the object of the scorecard;

and wherein the at least one processor executes program instructions to aggregate the object measure-value into a corresponding object measure-value of the similar object.

29. A system as in any one of claims 21-28, wherein the risk is a component of a risk-catalogue stored by the at least one memory.