Forecast of amount in the face of uncertainty

• US 20030204434A1
• Filed: 04/29/2002
• Published: 10/30/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 04/29/2002
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Jonathan Daniel Linton, Julian Scott Yeomans
• Original Assignee: Jonathan Daniel Linton, Julian Scott Yeomans
• Inventors: Linton, Jonathan Daniel, Yeomans, Julian Scott
• Application Number:
  US10/133,881
• Publication Number:
  US 20030204434A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06312 Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06316 Sequencing of tasks or work
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0637 Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors

Abstract

A method and machine for determining the likely value of an amount or amounts in the face of uncertainty. The invention relates to an improved method of forecasting or prediction. More specifically the use of resampling to obtain better predictions of unknown values through the consideration of uncertainty. The method can determine supply, demand, supply/demand gaps, price, cost, proportion, policy choice, amounts, quantities, levels, needs, requirements and other values that are difficult to determine due to the presence of one or more uncertainties.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the value and values of items of interest using a computer having memory, including the steps of:

identifying relevant variables and relationships between variables;

Identifying whether the said variables and said relationships between values have uncertainty;

identifying the value, values, distribution of values of said variables and said relationships between variables;

creating a database of information on a least some of the said variables and said relationships between variables;

calculating possible values for the said items of interest using resampling and at least some of the said variables and the said relationships between variables;

displaying in graphical fashion either the said possible values and/or some statistic(s) representing the said possible values;

2. The method of claim 1 where in at least some of the said variables have uncertainty in their value.

3. The method of claim 1 where in at least some of the said relationships between the said variables have uncertainty.

4. The method of claim 1 where the said value of interest is a quantity.

5. The method of claim 4 where the said quantity represents the demand for a product.

6. The method of claim 4 where the said quantity represents the supply of a product.

7. The method of claim 4 where the said quantity represents a proportion.

8. The method of claim 7 where the said proportion represents part of a portfolio of investments or investment decision.

9. The method of claim 4 where the said quantity represents a likelihood of an event occurring.

10. The method of claim 4 where the said quantity represents an amount to travel along a route in a network.

11. The method of claim 4 where the said quantity represents one or more policy alternatives.

12. The method of claim 11 where the quantity represents the extent and/or magnitude of the said policy(s).

13. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents the cost.

14. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents the price.

15. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents a requirement or need.

16. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents a level.

17. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents a rate.

18. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents a gap between supply and demand.

19. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents an amount.

20. The method of claim 4 where the quantity represents an infrastructure requirement.

21. A system for prospectively determining the value or values of an item of interest utilizing a multiplicity of variables, al least some of which are interrelated, comprising:

a computer having a memory;

a data base stored in said memory containing information about at least some of said variables and the relationships between these said variables;

means for calculating predictions of value(s) of interest utilizing said variables and said relationships between variables;

display means for displaying in graphical form, the variables and values that result from the processing of said variables;

22. The system of claim 21 wherein at least some of the said variables have uncertainty in their value.

23. The system of claim 21 where in at least some of the said relationships between the said variables have uncertainty.

24. The system of claim 21 where the said value of interest is a quantity.

25. The system of claim 24 where the said quantity represents the demand for a product.

26. The system of claim 24 where the said quantity represents the supply of a product.

27. The system of claim 24 where the said quantity represents a proportion.

28. The system of claim 27 where the said proportion represents part of a portfolio of investments or investment decision.

29. The system of claim 24 where the said quantity represents a likelihood of an event occurring.

30. The system of claim 24 where the said quantity represents an amount to travel along a route in a network.

31. The system of claim 24 where the said quantity represents one or more policy alternatives.

32. The system of claim 31 where the quantity represents the extent and/or magnitude of the said policy(s).

33. The system of claim 24 where the quantity represents the cost.

34. The system of claim 24 where the quantity represents the price.

35. The method of claim 24 where the quantity represents a requirement or need.

36. The method of claim 24 where the quantity represents a level.

37. The method of claim 24 where the quantity represents a rate.

38. The method of claim 24 where the quantity represents a gap between supply and demand.

39. The method of claim 24 where the quantity represents an amount.

40. The method of claim 24 where the quantity represents an infrastructure requirement.