Inventory early warning agent in a supply chain management system

• US 20030225635A1
• Filed: 07/31/2002
• Published: 12/04/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 11/14/2001
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: SAP SE
• Original Assignee: SAP AG (SAP SE)
• Inventors: Chen, Ye, Renz, Alexander
• Granted Patent: US 7,398,232 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/28
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders

Abstract

An inventory agent operating on software includes instructions operable to cause a programmable processor to receive inventory data relating to stock in an inventory, apply the inventory data to a conditional probabilistic predictive statistical algorithm, calculate a predicted inventory level, and use the calculated predicted inventory level to determine whether to order additional stock for the inventory. The statistical algorithm uses a conditional probabilistic model to process the data. The inventory agent may be implemented in a supply chain management system.

Claims

1. An inventory agent operating on software comprising instructions operable to cause a programmable processor to:

receive inventory data relating to stock in an inventory;

apply the inventory data to a conditional probabilistic predictive statistical algorithm, wherein the statistical algorithm uses a conditional probabilistic model to process the data;

calculate a predicted inventory level; and

use the calculated predicted inventory level to determine whether to order additional stock for the inventory.

2. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the inventory data is generated using a radio-frequency identification device.

3. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the inventory data is generated upon the sale of the stock in the inventory.

4. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the inventory data is generated upon the transfer of the stock in the inventory.

5. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the conditional probabilistic model uses a conditional Gaussian approximation.

6. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the conditional probabilistic model uses historical inventory data and current inventory data.

7. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the conditional probabilistic model further calculates an upside 10% confidence bound and a downside 10% confidence bound.

8. The inventory agent of claim 7, further comprising instructions to use the calculated upside 10% confidence bound and the downside 10% confidence bound in determining whether to order additional stock for the inventory.

9. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the inventory data includes actual cumulative replenishment, forecast cumulative replenishment, actual cumulative consumption, and forecast cumulative consumption data.

10. The inventory agent of claim 1, further comprising instructions operable to cause the agent to order a replenishment of the inventory.

11. The inventory agent of claim 1, further comprising instructions operable to record data related to inventory consumption and replenishment.

12. The inventory agent of claim 11, further comprising instructions operable to use the recorded data to calculate cumulative forecast consumption, cumulative forecast replenishment, cumulative actual consumption, and cumulative actual replenishment.

13. The inventory agent of claim 12, further comprising instructions operable to use the inventory data with the calculated cumulative forecast consumption, cumulative forecast replenishment, cumulative actual consumption, and cumulative actual replenishment to calculate a second predicted inventory level.

14. The inventory agent of claim 1, wherein the inventory agent is implemented in a supply chain management system.

15. A system comprising one or more computer systems and an inventory agent computer coupled to the computer systems over a network, the inventory agent computer being operable to:

receive inventory data relating to stock in an inventory;

apply the inventory data to a conditional probabilistic predictive statistical algorithm, wherein the statistical algorithm uses a conditional probabilistic model to process the data;

calculate an expected inventory level; and

use the calculated expected inventory level to determine whether to order additional stock for the inventory.

16. The system of claim 15, further comprising instructions to generate the inventory data upon receipt from a radio-frequency identification device.

17. The system of claim 15, further comprising instructions to generate the inventory data upon the sale of the stock in the inventory.

18. The system of claim 15, further comprising instructions to generate the inventory data upon the transfer of the stock in the inventory.

19. The system of claim 15, wherein the conditional probabilistic model uses a conditional Gaussian approximation.

20. The system of claim 15, further comprising instructions to use historical inventory data and current inventory data in the conditional probabilistic model.

21. The system of claim 15, further comprising instructions to further calculate an upside 10% confidence bound and a downside 10% confidence bound in the conditional probabilistic model.

22. The system of claim 21, further comprising instructions to use the calculated upside 10% confidence bound and the downside 10% confidence bound in determining whether to order additional stock for the inventory.

23. The system of claim 15, wherein the inventory data includes actual cumulative replenishment, forecast cumulative replenishment, actual cumulative consumption, and forecast cumulative consumption data.

24. The system of claim 15, further comprising instructions operable to cause the inventory agent computer to order a replenishment of the inventory.

25. The system of claim 15, further comprising instructions operable to record data related to inventory consumption and replenishment.

26. The system of claim 25, further comprising instructions operable to use the recorded data to calculate cumulative forecast consumption, cumulative forecast replenishment, cumulative actual consumption, and cumulative actual replenishment.

27. The system of claim 26, further comprising instructions operable to use the inventory data with the calculated cumulative forecast consumption, cumulative forecast replenishment, cumulative actual consumption, and cumulative actual replenishment to calculate a second predicted inventory level.

28. The system of claim 15, wherein the inventory agent computer is implemented in a supply chain management system.