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Decision aiding tool

  • US 20030229527A1
  • Filed: 04/10/2003
  • Published: 12/11/2003
  • Est. Priority Date: 04/18/2002
  • Status: Abandoned Application
First Claim
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1. A method of decision tree analysis by which a goal (82) to be assessed in terms of a comparison between a number of different scenarios is linked with quantifiable parameters (101-112), thereby enabling a quantitative value to be obtained as a measure of the goal (82), the method comprising the steps of:

  • (a) At a first level of the decision tree, associating the goal (82) with Required Information (84) which, if all aspects of the Required Information (84) were known, would enable a straightforward assessment of the goal (82) to be made for each of the different scenarios;

    (b) At a second level of the decision tree, linking proxy information (86) to the Required Information (84) wherein the proxy information (86) comprises a number of aspects, each of which is a generally estimable parameter, and each aspect of the proxy information (86) is assumed to make a contribution to each aspect of the Required Information (84); and

    (c) At a third and, possibly, subsequent level of the decision tree, extracting Proxy Factors (101-112), the Proxy Factors (101-112) being not insignificant components of each aspect of the proxy information (86) linked to one of the aspects of the Required Information through the decision tree structure and wherein the Proxy Factors (101-112) are quantifiable parameters.

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