Method and financial product for estimating geographic mortgage risk

• US 20040010443A1
• Filed: 05/02/2003
• Published: 01/15/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 05/03/2002
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: American International Group Incorporated
• Original Assignee: American International Group Incorporated
• Inventors: May, Andrew W., Imura, Paul, Medvick, Aaron, Pannala, Maruthy K.
• Application Number:
  US10/428,727
• Publication Number:
  US 20040010443A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

A quarterly index projects geographic market risk for 200 MSAs over the next four to eight quarters. The index ratings use a grading scale that ranges from 1 to 10. A score of 1 indicates that an MSA is very unlikely to experience further decline in the model variables, which include home prices, local economy, population stability, and mortgage delinquency trends. A grade of 10 indicates the greatest chance for future decline. For example, a score of a 10 would indicate that it would be a good time to pull out of a market; whereas, a score of a 1 indicates a market that is a good investment.

Claims

1. A method for rating individual geographic areas relative to one another, said ratings reflecting economic risk in said geographic areas, the method comprising:

compiling data for a plurality of market-related variables that reflect multiple economic sectors of each of said geographic areas;

ranking said geographic areas relative to one another for each said variables;

generating a rating of one of said geographic areas on a scale of 1 to N, wherein said rating is a weighted average of said rankings of said variables for said one of said geographic areas, and wherein N is an integer greater than 1; and

generating a report for at least said one geographic area that indicates said rating for said geographic area, wherein said rating is usable as an indicator of market conditions for at least said one geographic area.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising generating ratings for a plurality of said geographic areas, and including said ratings in said generated report.

3. The method of claim 2, further comprising consolidating said ratings from said geographic areas into a smaller number of ratings for consolidated groupings of said geographic areas.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein said step of ranking said geographic areas relative to one another comprises ranking said geographic areas on a scale of 1 to M, where M comprises the number of geographic areas being rated, grouping said M geographic areas relative to said ranking into N groups, and using said grouping to determine said rating of said one of said geographic areas.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein said step of ranking said geographic areas relative to one another comprises ranking said geographic areas for each variable based on a current DIFF value calculated for each of said geographic areas, wherein said current DIFF value=[Current Value of said variable/Current Exponential Moving Average]−

1.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein said weighted average is calculated by

determining a multivariate weight for each of said variables relative to the other of said variables;

for each of said variables, multiplying said calculated multivariate weight for said variable by said ranking for said variable to obtain a set of values; and

adding said values together to obtain said weighted average.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising using said rating as a measure of risk for said geographic area to determine whether or under what conditions to offer a loan in said geographic area.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising generating a sector-by-sector rating for each of said economic sectors for said geographic areas.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein said economic sectors comprise home prices, local economy, stability, and mortgage delinquency rates.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein each of said geographic areas is a Metropolitan Statistical Area for which data is maintained.

11. The method of claim 1, further comprising choosing said variables for ranking said geographic area wherein said variables satisfy a mean reversion relationship.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein said variables represent home prices, mortgage delinquency, total population, demographic percentage of 25-44 years olds, income, unemployment rate, and industry diversity.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein at least one of said steps is performed using a processor.

14. A financial product for rating individual geographic areas relative to one another, said ratings reflecting economic risk in said geographic areas, the financial product being generated by the steps of:

compiling data for a plurality of market-related variables that reflect multiple economic sectors of each of said geographic areas;

ranking said geographic areas relative to one another for each said variables;

generating a rating of one of said geographic areas on a scale of 1 to N, wherein said rating is a weighted average of said rankings of said variables for said one of said geographic areas, and wherein N is an integer greater than 1; and

generating a report for at least said one geographic area that indicates said rating for said geographic area, wherein said rating is usable as an indicator of market conditions for at least said one geographic area.

15. The financial product of claim 14, wherein the financial product is further generated by generating ratings for a plurality of said geographic areas, and including said ratings in said generated report.

16. The financial product of claim 15, wherein the financial product is further generated by consolidating said ratings from said geographic areas into a smaller number of ratings for consolidated groupings of said geographic areas.

17. The financial product of claim 14, wherein said step of ranking said geographic areas relative to one another to generate the financial product comprises ranking said geographic areas on a scale of 1 to M, where M comprises the number of geographic areas being rated, grouping said M geographic areas relative to said ranking into N groups, and using said grouping to determine said rating of said one of said geographic areas.

18. The financial product of claim 14, wherein said step of ranking said geographic areas relative to one another to generate the financial product comprises ranking said geographic areas for each variable based on a current DIFF value calculated for each of said geographic areas, wherein said current DIFF value=[Current Value of said variable/Current Exponential Moving Average]−

1.

19. The financial product of claim 14, wherein said weighted average is calculated by

determining a multivariate weight for each of said variables relative to the other of said variables;

for each of said variables, multiplying said calculated multivariate weight for said variable by said ranking for said variable to obtain a set of values; and

adding said values together to obtain said weighted average.

20. The financial product of claim 14, wherein the financial product is further generated by using said rating as a measure of risk for said geographic area to determine whether or under what conditions to offer a loan in said geographic area.

21. The financial product of claim 14, wherein the financial product is further generated by generating a sector-by-sector rating for each of said economic sectors for said geographic areas.

22. The financial product of claim 14, wherein said economic sectors comprise home prices, local economy, stability, and mortgage delinquency rates.

23. The financial product of claim 14, wherein each of said geographic areas is a Metropolitan Statistical Area for which data is maintained.

24. The financial product of claim 14, wherein the financial product is further generated by choosing said variables for ranking said geographic area wherein said variables satisfy a mean reversion relationship.

25. The financial product of claim 14, wherein said variables represent home prices, mortgage delinquency, total population, demographic percentage of 25-44 years olds, income, unemployment rate, and industry diversity.

26. The financial product of claim 14, wherein at least one of said steps is performed using a processor.