Method and apparatus for estimating the refresh strategy or other refresh-influenced parameters of a system over its life cycle

• US 20040015452A1
• Filed: 05/15/2003
• Published: 01/22/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 05/15/2002
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Lockheed Martin Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Lockheed Martin Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Inventors: Hertz, Michael T., Herald, Thomas E. Jr.
• Granted Patent: US 7,584,156 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/400
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/102 Bill distribution or payments
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination

Abstract

A method for estimating the cost of a system over its predetermined life cycle is provided. The method includes estimating refresh and non-refresh costs for the system over its life cycle. By estimating the refresh cost, such a method allows one to select the most cost-effective implementation for the system by comparing the costs of different implementations. For example, if the system is to be installed in a submarine, one can select the most cost-effective system configuration for a given refresh rate, where the refresh rate coincides with the intervals at which the submarine is in port for service. Or, for a given system configuration, one can determine the most cost-effective refresh rate, and thus select the most cost-effective interval for servicing the submarine.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

estimating refresh costs for a system over a life cycle of the system; and

estimating non-refresh costs for the system over the life cycle.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein estimating the refresh costs comprises estimating the refresh costs based on a ratio of a capacity of a next generation of a part and a capacity of a previous generation of the part.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein estimating the refresh costs comprises estimating the refresh costs based on a cost of an initial generation of a refreshed part.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein estimating the non-refresh costs comprises estimating an operation and support cost based on a ratio of a capacity of a next generation of a part and a capacity of a previous generation of the part.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein estimating the non-refresh costs comprises estimating an operation and support cost based on a cost of a previous generation of a refreshed part.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein:

estimating the refresh costs comprises estimating the refresh costs for each refresh period of the life cycle; and

estimating the non-refresh costs comprises estimating the non-refresh costs for each period of the lifecycle.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein estimating the non-refresh costs comprises:

estimating an initial acquisition cost of the system for an initial period of the system life cycle; and

estimating operation and support costs of the system for each period of the system life cycle.

8. A method, comprising:

estimating a first cost of a system for a first refresh strategy; and

estimating a second cost of the system for a second refresh strategy.

9. The method of claim 8 wherein estimating the first and second costs comprises estimating the first and second costs over the life cycle of the system.

10. The method of claim 8 wherein:

the first refresh strategy contemplates a first refresh rate; and

the second refresh strategy contemplates a second refresh rate.

11. The method of claim 8 wherein:

the first refresh strategy contemplates refreshing a part of the system; and

the second refresh strategy contemplates replacing the part.

12. A method for determining a total cost of a system over a life cycle of the system, the method comprising:

calculating a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of the system; and

calculating the total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves.

13. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the current and future price curves comprises:

calculating the current price curve for a currently available generation of the part; and

calculating the future price curve for a future generation of the part.

14. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the current and the future price curves comprises calculating the current and future price curves from:

respective life cycles for currently available and future generations of the part;

a time between introduction of the currently available and future generations of the part;

a change in a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to the currently available generation of the part; and

a maturity of the currently available generation of the part.

15. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

calculating a respective periodic cost of the system for each predetermined period of the system'"'"'s life cycle; and

calculating the total cost of the system as a sum of all the respective periodic costs of the system.

16. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

calculating an initial acquisition cost of the system by using the current price curve to calculate a price of a currently available generation of the part at the time the system is to be acquired;

including the initial acquisition cost in a periodic cost of the system for an initial period of the system'"'"'s life cycle; and

including the periodic cost in the total cost.

17. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

selecting a refresh rate of the system life cycle for refreshing a currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of the currently installed generation; and

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a price of a currently installed generation and the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system.

18. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

selecting a refresh rate of the system life cycle for refreshing a currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of an initially installed generation of the part and on an importance of the part to the system; and

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a cost of the initially installed generation and the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system.

19. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

calculating a pre-refresh operation and support cost for the system as a function of a price of a currently installed generation of the part;

selecting a refresh rate of the system life cycle for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of an initially installed generation of the part and on an importance of the part to the system;

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a cost of the initially installed generation of the part and the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system;

calculating a capacity-independent portion of an operation and support cost for the refresh period as a function of the pre-refresh cost of all parts in the system; and

calculating a capacity-dependent portion of the operation and support cost for the refresh period as a function of the cost of the currently installed generation of the part and the functional capacity of the future generation of the part.

20. The method of claim 12 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

selecting a refresh period of the system life cycle for refreshing a currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of an initially installed generation of the part; and

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a price of the initially installed generation, the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system, and a level of difficulty for refreshing the currently installed generation with the future generation.

21. A method for calculating a price curve for a future generation of a system part, the method comprising:

calculating an occurrence of the curve based on a time between introduction of previous or currently available generation of the part;

calculating a duration of the curve based on a life cycle of a previous or currently available generation of the part; and

calculating a magnitude of the curve versus time based on a cost over time of a previous or currently available generation of the part.

22. The method of claim 21 wherein calculating the occurrence comprises calculating the occurrence based on a maturity of a currently available generation of the part.

23. The method of claim 21 wherein calculating the occurrence comprises calculating the occurrence of the price curve for the future generation of the part based on a price curve for a currently available generation of the part.

24. The method of claim 21 wherein calculating the magnitude of the price curve comprises calculating the magnitude of the price curve based on a change in a functional capacity between sequential previous or currently available generations of the part.

25. A method for calculating a price curve for a future generation of a system part, the method comprising:

calculating an occurrence for the curve based on a time between introduction of sequential previous or currently available generations of a part in a same technology group as the system part;

calculating a duration of the curve based on a life cycle of a previous or currently available generation of a part in the same technology group as the system part; and

calculating a magnitude of the curve based on a cost over time of a previous or currently available generation part of a part in the same technology group as the system part.

26. The method of claim 25 wherein calculating the occurrence comprises calculating the occurrence based on a maturity of a currently available generation of a part in the same technology group as the system part.

27. The method of claim 25 wherein calculating the occurrence comprises calculating the occurrence of the price curve for the future generation of the part based on a price curve for a currently available generation of a part in the same technology group as the system part.

28. The method of claim 25 wherein calculating the magnitude of the price curve comprises calculating the magnitude of the price curve based on a change in a functional capacity between sequential previous or currently available generations of a part in the same technology group as the system part.

29. A computer-readable medium that stores software operable to cause a computer to:

estimate refresh costs for a system over a life cycle of the system; and

estimate non-refresh costs for the system over the life cycle.

30. A computer, comprising:

a processor circuit operable to execute a software program that causes the processor circuit to;

estimate refresh costs for a system over a life cycle of the system; and

estimate non-refresh costs for the system over the life cycle.

31. The computer of claim 30 wherein the processor circuit is operable to execute the software program under control of a client that is remote from the computer.

32. The computer of claim 30 wherein the processor circuit is operable to execute the software program under control of a remote client that is operable to communicate with the processor circuit via a network.

33. A computer-readable medium that stores software operable to cause a computer to:

estimate a first cost of a system for a first refresh strategy; and

estimate a second cost of the system for a second refresh strategy.

34. A computer, comprising:

a processor circuit operable to execute a software program that causes the processor circuit to;

estimate a first cost of a system for a first refresh strategy; and

estimate a second cost of the system for a second refresh strategy.

35. The computer of claim 34 wherein the processor circuit is operable to execute the software program under control of a client that is remote from the computer.

36. A computer-readable medium that stores software operable to cause a computer to calculate a price curve for a future generation of a system part by:

calculating an occurrence for the curve based on a time between introduction of sequential previous or currently available generations of the part;

calculating a duration of the curve based on a life cycle of a previous or currently available generation of the part; and

calculating a magnitude of the curve based on a cost over time of a previous or currently available generation of the part.

37. A computer, comprising:

a processor circuit operable to execute a software program that causes the processor circuit to calculate a price curve for a future generation of a system part by;

calculating an occurrence for the curve based on a time between introduction of sequential previous or currently available generations of the part;

calculating a duration of the curve based on a life cycle of a previous or currently available generation of the part; and

calculating a magnitude of the curve based on a cost over time of a previous or currently available generation of the part.

38. A computer-readable medium that stores software operable to cause a computer to determine a total cost of a system over a predetermined lifetime of the system by:

calculating a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of the system; and

calculating the total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves.

39. A computer, comprising:

a processor circuit operable to execute a software program that causes the processor circuit to determine a total cost of a system over a predetermined life cycle of the system by;

calculating a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of the system; and

calculating the total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves.

40. The computer of claim 39 wherein the processor circuit is operable to execute the software program under control of a remote client that is operable to communicate with the processor circuit via a network.