Project assessment system and method

• US 20040111306A1
• Filed: 10/14/2003
• Published: 06/10/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 12/09/2002
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Hitachi, Ltd., Hitachi Plant Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd. (Hitachi, Ltd.)
• Original Assignee: Hitachi, Ltd., Hitachi Plant Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd. (Hitachi, Ltd.)
• Inventors: Araki, Kenji, Yokota, Takeshi, Nonaka, Hisanori, Nishikawa, Youichi, Kudoh, Makoto
• Granted Patent: US 7,729,932 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063118 Staff planning in a project environment
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change

Abstract

A project assessment system comprises a process planning data base, an actual progress information data base, a forecast model data base, a forecast estimation computation device, a project assessment device and a display device of assessment result. The system of the present invention allows assessing the project (clarification of both problems and superior aspects) by using the practical estimation on the basis of quantitative indications.

Claims

1. A project assessment system that assists to assess a project consisting of plurality of processes by computing forecast estimates of saidproject based on a set of information as starting information, progress information and up-to-date information of said project comprising:

a computer process that computes, by using process planning information of said project, up-to-date actual progress information of said project and forecast model information of said project that defines estimates of variances of a plurality of parameters that are substantial measures of said project, at least one of estimation values of said parameters of said each process and

another computer process that enables to assess said project by judging whether said estimation values satisfy a predetermined criterion or a result of a mutual comparison of said estimation values against each different process satisfies a predetermined criterion.

2. A project assessment system as defined in claim 1, wherein said parameters include at least one of parameters among starting date, ending date, job volume, workdays, man-days, material quantities and cost.

3. A project assessment system as defined in claim 1, wherein said estimates of variances of said parameters are defined in a probability distribution, said computer process has functionalities to compute forecast estimates of variances of a plurality of parameters by using random numbers and to make a graphical presentation of said forecast estimates and said another computer process assesses said project by using said graphical presentation.

4. A project assessment system as defined in claim 1, wherein said estimates of variances of said parameters are defined by a probability distribution, said computer process has functionalities to compute forecast estimates of variances of a plurality of parameters by using random numbers and to compute forecast estimates of other processes that have positive mutual-correlation against variation pattern of an estimate of a variance of an arbitral parameter of an arbitral process based on a plurality of said forecast estimates obtained by generating a plurality of random number sets and said another computer process assesses said project by using said forecast estimates of other processes.

5. A project assessment system as defined in claim 1, wherein said estimates of variances of said parameters are defined by a probability distribution, said computer process has functionalities to compute forecast estimates of variances of plurality of parameters by using random numbers and to compute a standard deviation of summation of all processes against an estimate of a variances of an arbitral parameter of an arbitral process and a standard deviation of a summation of processes subtracted a specific process from all processes based on a plurality of said forecast estimates obtained by generating a plurality of random number sets and said another computer process assesses said project by using said forecast estimates of other processes.

6. A project assessment system as defined in claim 1, wherein said compute process computes time-series data of said actual progress of variances of said parameters up to a time to carry out assessment and a time-series data of said estimates of variances of said parameters from time from a time to carry out assessment to a future time and said another computer process assesses information of mutual correlations between said time-series data of each pair of processes

7. A project assessment system as defined in claim 1, wherein said computer process computes, by using a group of time-series data consisting of time-series data of said actual progress of variances of said parameters up to a time to carry out assessment and time-series data of said estimates of variances of said parameters from a time to carry out assessment to a future time, a degree of mutual correlation of a said group of time-series data by setting a specific critical condition for variation range of said at least one of said parameters among starting date, ending date, job volume, workdays, man-days, material quantities and cost and said another computer process assesses said project by using said information of said specific critical condition set for a resultant high mutual-correlation.

8. A project assessment system that assists to assess a project consisting of plurality of processes by computing said forecast estimates of said project based on a set of information of starting information, progress information and up-to-date information of said project, comprising:

a process planning data base including process planning information of said project,

an actual progress information data base including up-to-date actual progress information of said project,

a forecast model data base including forecast model information of said project that defines at least one of estimates of variances of a plurality of parameters that are substantial measures of said project,

a forecast estimation computation device that computes an estimate of a variance of forecast estimation of said parameters and

a project assessment device to assess said project based on said estimates and a selected assessment scheme.

9. A project assessment system as defined in claim 8, wherein said forecast estimation computation device has functionalities to compute an estimate of a variance of said forecast estimation of said parameters and to output processed values regarding to said forecast estimation as an evaluation value in response to said selected assessment scheme.

10. A project assessment system as defined in claim 8, wherein said project assessment device is a computer device comprising;

a storage device to store said process planning data, said actual progress information data base and said forecast model data base, a CPU that realizes functions as said forecast estimation computation device and said project assessment device and

a display device to output an assessment result as an output device.

11. A project assessment system as defined in claim 8, wherein said project assessment device is a computer device comprising;

a storage device to store said process planning data, said actual progress information data base and said forecast model data base,

a CPU that realizes functions as said forecast estimation computation device and said project assessment device and

a display device of an assessment result that has a graphic display presentation for selecting a project assessment scheme by which selection of a project assessment scheme is carried out through an input device.

12. A project assessment method by which an assist is carried out to assess a project consisting of plurality of processes by computing the forecast estimates of said project based on a set of information as starting information, progress information and up to date information of said project, comprising:

a step that memorizes process planning information of said project, up-to-date actual progress information of said project and forecast model information of said project that defines estimates of variances of a plurality of parameters that are substantial measures of said project, at least one of said parameters of said estimation values of each process,

another step to compute at least one of parameters among starting date, ending date, job size, workdays, man-days, material quantities and cost by using said process planning information, said actual progress information and said forecast model information and

a judgment step to judge whether said estimate satisfies a predetermined criterion or a result of a mutual comparison of said estimation value against each different process satisfies a predetermined criterion, wherein at least one of said parameters is assessed on the basis of a result obtained in said judgment step.

13. A project assessment method as defined in claim 12, wherein

said estimates of variances of said parameters are defined by a probability distribution, a step to compute forecast estimates of variances of a plurality of parameters by using random numbers and a step to compute a plurality of said forecast estimates of variances obtained by generating a plurality of random number sets are further included and

said judgment step assess said project.

14. A project assessment method as defined in claim 12, wherein

a step to compute an estimate of starting date as said at least one of parameters has functions to judge whether a objective process has a pre-sequential order limited process by using information of said process planning and to resultantly set an ending date of said pre-sequential order limited process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process has said pre-sequential order limited process and set a starting date of estimated starting date of said process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process does not have said pre-sequential order limited process, to extract information of probability distribution model of a variance of starting date from said forecast model information of said project, to compute a standard normalized random number set by a simulation based on a variance of starting date, to compute a reference for a variance by using said standard normalized random number set and to judge whether said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date based on said forecast model information of said project so that adding said reference for variance as a variance of starting date to said reference for starting date for a case that said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date, and

said estimate of starting date is obtained therein.

15. A project assessment method as defined in claim 12, wherein a step to compute an estimate of elementary unit (man-days/material quantities) as said at least one of parameters has functions to judge whether a similar kind job to an objective process is stored in said actual progress information data base and to resultantly set an actual elementary unit for a reference for a elementary unit for a case that a similar kind job to an objective process is stored in said actual progress information data base and set a planned elementary unit for a reference for a elementary unit for a chase that a similar kind job to an objective process is not stored in said actual progress information data base, to extract information of probability distribution model of a variance of an elementary unit from said forecast model information of said project, to compute a standard normalized random number set by a simulation based on a variance of said elementary unit, to compute a reference for a variance by using said standard normalized random number set and

to judge whether said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of elementary unit based on said forecast model information of said project so that adding said reference for variance as a variance of elementary unit to said reference for said elementary unit for a case that said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of said elementary unit and

estimate of starting date is obtained in said steps therein.

16. A project assessment method as defined in claim 15, wherein a step to compute an estimate of starting date as said at least one of parameters has functions to judge whether a objective process has a pre-sequential order limited process by using information of said process planning and to resultantly set an ending date of said pre-sequential order limited process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process has said pre-sequential order limited process and set a starting date of estimated starting date of said process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process does not have said pre-sequential order limited process, to extract information of probability distribution model of a variance of starting date from said forecast model information of said project, to compute a standard normalized random number set by a simulation based on a variance of starting date, to compute a reference for a variance by using said standard normalized random number set, to judge whether said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date based on said forecast model information of said project so that adding said reference for variance as a variance of starting date to said reference for starting date for a case that said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date and

said step to compute an estimate of starting date as said at least one of parameters has further functions to compute an estimate of workdays by multiplying said estimate of elementary unit with an estimated materials in said process planning and to add said estimate of workdays to said estimate of starting date and

estimate of ending date is obtained in said steps therein.

17. A project assessment method as defined in claim 15, wherein a step to compute an estimate of starting date as said at least one of parameters has functions to judge whether a objective process has a pre-sequential order limited process by using information of said process planning and to resultantly set an ending date of said pre-sequential order limited process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process has said pre-sequential order limited process and set a starting date of estimated starting date of said process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process does not have said pre-sequential order limited process, to extract information of probability distribution model of a variance of starting date from said forecast model information of said project, to compute a standard normalized random number set by a simulation based on a variance of starting date, to compute a reference for a variance by using said standard normalized random number set, to judge whether said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date based on said forecast model information of said project so that adding said reference for variance as a variance of starting date to said reference for starting date for a case that said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date and

said step to compute an estimate of starting date as said at least one of parameters has further functions to compute an estimate of workdays by multiplying said estimate of elementary unit with an estimated materials in said process planning and to add said estimate of workdays to said estimate of starting date and

an estimate of ending date is obtained in said steps therein,

and wherein said estimate of staring date and said estimate of ending date are judged whether said two estimates satisfy critical term of said process planning so that a amendment is done for said estimates to satisfy said critical term for a case that said two estimates do not satisfy critical term of said process planning.

18. A project assessment method as defined in claim 15, wherein a step to compute an estimate of starting date as said at least one of parameters has functions to judge whether a objective process has a pre-sequential order limited process by using information of said process planning and to resultantly set an ending date of said pre-sequential order limited process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process has said pre-sequential order limited process and set a starting date of estimated starting date of said process as a reference for starting date of said objective process for a case that said objective process does not have said pre-sequential order limited process, to extract information of probability distribution model of a variance of starting date from said forecast model information of said project, to compute a standard normalized random number set by a simulation based on a variance of starting date, to compute a reference for a variance by using said standard normalized random number set, to judge whether said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date based on said forecast model information of said project so that adding said reference for variance as a variance of starting date to said reference for starting date for a case that said reference for a variance is in a range of a variance of starting date and

said step to compute an estimate of starting date as said at least one of parameters has functions to compute an estimate of workdays by multiplying said estimate of elementary unit with an estimated materials in said process planning and to add said estimate of workdays to said estimate of starting date and

estimate of ending date is obtained in said steps therein,

and wherein said estimate of staring date and said estimate of ending date are judged whether said two estimates satisfy critical term of said process planning so that a amendment is done for said estimates to satisfy said critical term for a case that said two estimates do not satisfy critical term of said process planning and

said step to compute an estimate of man-days as said at least one of parameters has further functions to compute an estimate of man-days by multiplying said estimate of elementary unit with an estimated materials and then dividing with said amended estimate of workdays obtained by said estimate of workdays, and

estimate of man-days is obtained in said steps therein.