PREDICTION SYSTEM BASED ON WEIGHTED EXPERT OPINIONS USING PRIOR SUCCESS MEASURES
First Claim
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1. A system for predicting the outcome of an event comprising:
- input/output means;
memory means;
processing means;
means for experts to enter their opinions on said event outcome into said input/output means;
means for capturing the data from said input/output means;
means for storing measures of prior performance by different experts in said memory means;
means for calculating a prediction for the outcome of said event based on the average of said expert opinions weighted by said measures of prior performance; and
means for storing in said memory means and for transmitting to said input/output means the prediction calculated by said processing means;
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Abstract
This invention is a prediction and reward system and method based on pooling the opinions of experts by using quantitative measures of prior prediction performance to weigh the opinions. This invention enables a computer-network based system capable of generating predictions based on expert opinions as well as measures of expert performance.
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Citations
22 Claims
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1. A system for predicting the outcome of an event comprising:
- input/output means;
memory means;
processing means;
means for experts to enter their opinions on said event outcome into said input/output means;
means for capturing the data from said input/output means;
means for storing measures of prior performance by different experts in said memory means;
means for calculating a prediction for the outcome of said event based on the average of said expert opinions weighted by said measures of prior performance; and
means for storing in said memory means and for transmitting to said input/output means the prediction calculated by said processing means;
- View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
- input/output means;
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8. A method for issuing predictions on the outcome of an event comprising the steps of:
- eliciting and receiving expert opinions;
storing said expert opinions;
weighing said expert opinions by measures of expert prior performance;
pooling the weighted opinions; and
issuing a prediction resulting from the pooling of weighted opinions. - View Dependent Claims (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
- eliciting and receiving expert opinions;
Specification