Method and system for valuation of complex systems, in particular for corporate rating and valuation

• US 20040133439A1
• Filed: 08/21/2003
• Published: 07/08/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 08/21/2002
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: IR - International Rating AG
• Original Assignee: IR - International Rating AG
• Inventors: Noetzold, Dirk, Noetzold, Mark
• Application Number:
  US10/644,742
• Publication Number:
  US 20040133439A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0282 Rating or review of business operators or products
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

A system and method are for valuation of complex systems. As a result, a detailed and complete assessment of the current and future state of a complex system can take place. The system and method provide a fully objective, transparent, and accurate way for valuing a complex system because the valuation result is calculated as the integration of detailed valuations of the complex system'"'"'s constituents. The system and method further provide a complete and consistent treatment of the uncertainties associated with future expectations. The system and method include a structuring method that divides the complex system into representative constituents; a data management system that can collect and store data and results; an expert system that can analyze the data, and; an integration system that can aggregate all appearing quantities including their uncertainties. As optional part it also includes an optimization system and method.

Claims

1. A system of producing a rating result for a corporation, comprising:

means for partitioning the corporation into non-overlapping units;

means for specifying risks, opportunities, and factors for each of the non-overlapping units;

means for quantifying expectations, uncertainties, and correlations associated with the specified risks, opportunities, and factors;

means for entering into a data management system including data relating to the quantifications of associated expectations, uncertainties, and correlations;

means for consolidating the specified risks and opportunities, including the effects of the uncertainties and correlations, to thereby produce a rating result.

2. The system as claimed in claim 1, wherein the system automatically at least one of collects and requests data upon an achieved precision of the produced rating result not being sufficient.

3. The system as claimed in claim 1, wherein the means for specifying is also for identifying weaknesses and strengths of said non-overlapping units.

4. The system as claimed in claim 2, further comprising:

means for analyzing collected data, in relation to reference data, to measure features of the collected data.

5. The system as claimed in claim 2, further comprising:

means for at least one of analyzing and integrating the collected data, in relation to known factors, to represent effects of at least one of correlations and interdependencies among the selected quantities.

6. The system as claimed in claim 5, further comprising:

means for consolidating said selected quantities, including effects of the uncertainties and correlations.

7. The system as claimed in claim 1, further comprising:

means for reporting an estimate, in real-time, of an obtainable rating with a current data set of a corporation.

8. A system of valuation comprising:

means for selecting a partition of a valuation object into non-overlapping units;

means for specifying quantities that represent specific aspects of the non-overlapping units;

means for quantifying the expectations, uncertainties, and correlations associated with the specified quantities;

means for entering into a data management system including data relating to the specified quantities and the quantifications of associated expectations, uncertainties, and correlations;

means for consolidating the quantities, including the effects of the uncertainties and correlations, to thereby produce a valuation result.

9. The system as claimed in claim 8, wherein the system automatically at least one of collects and requests data upon an achieved precision of the produced valuation result not being sufficient.

10. The system as claimed in claim 8, wherein the means for specifying is also for identifying weaknesses and strengths of said non-overlapping units.

11. The system as claimed in claim 9, further comprising:

means for analyzing collected data, in relation to reference data, to measure features of the collected data.

12. The system as claimed in claim 9, further comprising:

means for at least one of analyzing and integrating the collected data, in relation to known factors, to represent effects of at least one of correlations and interdependencies among the selected quantities.

13. The system as claimed in claim 12, further comprising:

means for consolidating said selected quantities, including effects of the uncertainties and correlations.

14. The system as claimed in claim 8, further comprising:

means for reporting an estimate, in real-time, of an obtainable valuation with a current data set of a corporation.

15. A method of producing a rating result for a corporation, comprising:

selecting a partition of the corporation into non-overlapping units;

entering into a data management system relating to risks, opportunities, and factors for said non-overlapping units, including data relating to quantifications of expectations, uncertainties, and correlations associated with the risks, opportunities, and factors;

consolidating the risks and opportunities, including the effects of the uncertainties and correlations, to thereby produce a rating result.

17. The method of claim 15 wherein the selecting includes constraining selection to partitions along one level in an organizational hierarchy of the corporation.

19. The method of claim 15, wherein the expectations, uncertainties, and correlations are quantified in form of probability distributions.

21. The method of claim 15, further comprising interactively and iteratively collecting data relating to the corporation that checks data for completeness and consistency.

23. The method of claim 19, wherein the consolidating includes integrating an equivalent of multidimensional probability distributions.

25. The method of claim 15, wherein a precision of the rating result is also produced.

27. The method of claim 15, wherein information regarding dependencies of the rating result is also produced.

29. The method of claim 15, wherein a formula is also produced, including functions of at least one of factors and ratios that approximate the rating result with calculable precision.

31. The method of claim 15, further comprising:

analyzing the non-over-lapping units with an expert system.

33. The method of claim 15, further comprising:

storing the rating result in a database.

34. The method of claim 15, further comprising:

storing the valuation result in a database.

35. The method of claim 15, further comprising:

distributing the rating result by at least one of a local and global computer network.

37. The method of claim 15, further comprising:

optimizing the corporation based on the rating result.

38. The method of claim 15, further comprising:

optimizing the valuation object based on the valuation result.

39. The method of claim 31, wherein the expert system compares the non-overlapping units with benchmark units.

41. The method of claim 31, wherein the expert system identifies at least one of the weaknesses, strengths, risks, opportunities, and factors of the non-overlapping units.

43. The method of claim 31, wherein the expert system derives suggestions to optimize at least one of operation, performance, and competitiveness of the non-overlapping units.

45. The method of claim 15, wherein more than 20 individual risks of the corporation, including any constituents, are consolidated with explicit consideration and consolidation of uncertainties and correlations.

47. The method of claim 15, wherein more than 10 individual risks and 5 opportunities of the corporation, including any constituents, are consolidated with explicit consideration and consolidation of uncertainties and correlations.

49. The method of claim 15, wherein more than 10 different quantities representing specific aspects of corporation, including any constituents, are consolidated with explicit consideration and consolidation of uncertainties and correlations.

51. A computer-readable medium comprising computer executable instructions configured to cause a computer device to perform the method of claim 15.

16. A method of valuation comprising the steps of:

selecting a partition of a valuation object into non-overlapping units;

entering into a data management system including data relating to quantities representing specific aspects of the non-overlapping units, including data relating to quantifications of expectations, uncertainties, and correlations of the quantities;

consolidating the quantities, including the effects of the uncertainties and correlations, to thereby produce a valuation result.

18. The method of claim 16 wherein the selecting includes constraining selection to partitions along one level in an organizational hierarchy of the valuation object.

20. The method of claim 16, wherein the expectations, uncertainties, and correlations are quantified in form of probability distributions.

22. The method of claim 16, further comprising interactively and iteratively collecting data relating to the valuation object that checks data for completeness and consistency.

24. The method of claim 20, wherein the consolidating includes integrating an equivalent of multidimensional probability distributions.

26. The method of claim 16, wherein a precision of the valuation result is also produced.

28. The method of claim 16, wherein information regarding dependencies of the valuation result is also produced.

30. The method of claim 16, wherein a formula is also produced, including functions of at least one of factors and ratios that approximate the rating result with calculable precision.

32. The method of claim 16, further comprising:

analyzing the non-over-lapping units with an expert system.

36. The method of claim 16, further comprising:

distributing the valuation result by at least one of a local and global computer network.

40. The method of claim 32, wherein the expert system compares the non-overlapping units with benchmark units.

42. The method of claim 32, wherein the expert system identifies at least one of the weaknesses, strengths, risks, opportunities, and factors of the non-overlapping units.

44. The method of claim 32, wherein the expert system derives suggestions to optimize at least one of operation, performance, and competitiveness of the non-overlapping units.

46. The method of claim 16, wherein more than 20 individual risks of the valuation object are consolidated with explicit consideration and consolidation of uncertainties and correlations.

48. The method of claim 16, wherein more than 10 individual risks and 5 opportunities of the valuation object are consolidated with explicit consideration and consolidation of uncertainties and correlations.

50. The method of claim 16, wherein more than 10 different quantities representing specific aspects of the valuation object are consolidated with explicit consideration and consolidation of uncertainties and correlations.

52. A computer-readable medium comprising computer executable instructions configured to cause a computer device to perform the method of claim 16.

53. A system of producing a rating for a corporation, comprising:

means for specifying at least risks and opportunities for non-overlapping units of the corporation;

means for quantifying at least uncertainties and correlations associated with the risks and opportunities;

means for consolidating the risks and opportunities, including the effects of the uncertainties and correlations, to produce the rating.

54. The system of claim 53, wherein the means for consolidating includes a data management system including data relating to the specified quantifications of uncertainties and correlations.

55. A system of valuation comprising:

means for specifying quantities representing specific aspects of non-overlapping units of a valuation object;

means for quantifying at least uncertainties, and correlations associated with the specified quantities;

means for consolidating the quantities, including the effects of the uncertainties and correlations, to produce a valuation.

56. The system of claim 55, wherein the means for consolidating includes a data management system including data relating to the specified quantities and the quantifications of associated uncertainties and correlations.