Performing what-if forecasts using a business information and decisioning control system

• US 20040138936A1
• Filed: 04/18/2003
• Published: 07/15/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 01/09/2003
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: General Electric Company
• Original Assignee: General Electric Company
• Inventors: Menon, Shaji S., Kapoor, Mousumi G., Johnson, Christopher D., Kalish, Peter A., Dingman, Brian N.
• Application Number:
  US10/418,928
• Publication Number:
  US 20040138936A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06314 Calendaring for a resource
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0639 Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management

Abstract

A method is described for performing and acting on what-if forecasts in a business that includes multiple interrelated business processes. The method includes: (a) providing a business information and decisioning control system to a user, where the business information and decisioning control system includes a business system user interface that includes plural input mechanisms; (b) receiving the user'"'"'s selection of an input setting made using at least one of the plural input mechanisms, the input setting defining a what-if case scenario; (c) performing a forecast based on the what-if case scenario to generate an output result, the output result forecasting an effect that the what-if case scenario will have on the interrelated business processes; (d) presenting the output result to the user; and (e) receiving the user'"'"'s selection of a command via the business system user interface, where the command prompts at least one of the interrelated business processes to make a change representative of the input setting.

Claims

1. A method for performing and acting on what-if forecasts in a business that includes multiple interrelated business processes, comprising:

providing a business information and decisioning control system to a user, wherein the business information and decisioning control system is coupled to the interrelated business processes, further wherein the business information and decisioning control system includes a business system user interface that includes plural input mechanisms;

receiving the user'"'"'s selection of an input setting made using at least one of the plural input mechanisms, the input setting defining a what-if case scenario;

performing a forecast based on the what-if case scenario using a predictive model provided by the business information and decisioning control system to generate an output result, the output result forecasting an effect that the what-if case scenario will have on the interrelated business processes;

presenting the output result to the user; and

receiving the user'"'"'s selection of a command via the business system user interface, wherein the command prompts at least one of the interrelated business processes to make a change representative of the input setting.

2. A method according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of input mechanisms detect the user'"'"'s input setting via tactile-related input detection, key actuation, sound recognition, motion detection, or biofeedback input detection.

3. A method according to claim 1, wherein the business system user interface includes:

a first display field for presenting information regarding what has happened in the business in the past;

a second display field for presenting information regarding what is presently happening in the business; and

a third display field for presenting information regarding what is projected to happen in the business in the future.

4. A method according to claim 1, wherein the user'"'"'s selection of the input setting defines at least one of:

a setting pertaining to a number of assets involved in at least one of the interrelated business processes;

a setting pertaining to an amount of time that the assets are allocated to a task performed in at least one of the interrelated business processes; and

a setting pertaining to an amount of rework involved in revising a result provided by at least one of the interrelated business processes.

5. A method according to claim 1, wherein the predictive model generates the output result based, at least in part, on historical data collected from the interrelated business processes.

6. A method according to claim 5, further including collecting the historical data from the interrelated business processes, transforming the historical data into a designated form, and storing the transformed data in a database for use by the business information and decisioning control system, wherein the database is coupled to the business information and decisioning control system.

7. A method according to claim 5, wherein the historical data is collected from at least one source that is internal to the business, and at least one source that is external to the business.

8. A method according to claim 1, wherein the predictive model generates the output result using a transfer function, wherein the transfer function maps at least one independent input variable to the output result.

9. A method according to claim 8, wherein at least one of the interrelated business processes can be modeled using the same transfer function used to provide the forecast in the business information and decisioning control system.

10. A method according to claim 1, wherein the business information and decisioning control system includes a plurality of models, and further including automatically selecting a predictive model from the plurality of models based on an assessment performed by the business information and decisioning control system.

11. A method according to claim 1, wherein the steps of receiving the user'"'"'s selection of an input setting, performing a forecast, and presenting the output result are performed multiple times until the user is satisfied with the output result.

12. A method according to claim 1, wherein the output result pertains to at least one of:

a financial metric pertaining to a forecasted financial performance of the business;

a resource-related metric pertaining to resources used in the business or provided by the business; and

a cycle time pertaining to a time required to complete one or more tasks within the interrelated business processes.

13. A method according to claim 1, wherein the step of presenting the output result includes displaying a visual representation of the output result to the user.

14. A method according to claim 13, wherein the visual representation of the output result includes an n-dimensional plot that maps the output result as a function of at least one independent variable.

15. A method according to claim 13, wherein the visual representation of the output results includes an n-dimensional plot that maps the output result as a function of time.

16. A method according to claim 13, wherein the visual representation of the output result reflects a probabilistic response surface that provides an indication of a level of statistical confidence associated with the output result.

17. A method according to claim 13, wherein the visual representation of the output result is dynamically updated in response to changes in at least one variable that has a bearing on the output result.

18. A method according to claim 13, wherein the visual representation of the output result also provides information regarding a measured result that reflects an actual course of the business for comparison with the output result.

19. A method according to claim 18, further including automatically comparing the output result to the measured result based on at least one comparison factor.

20. A method according to claim 1, wherein the business pertains to a services-related business or a manufacturing business.

21. A computer-readable medium including instructions for carrying out the method of claim 1.

22. A method for using a business information and decisioning control system to perform what-if forecasts in a business that includes multiple interrelated business processes, wherein the business information and decisioning control system is coupled to the interrelated business processes, comprising:

activating a business system user interface provided by the business information and decisioning control system, the business system user interface including plural input mechanisms;

making an input setting using at least one of the plural input mechanisms, the input setting defining a what-if case scenario, the what-if case scenario prompting the business information and decisioning control system to generate an output result using a predictive model provided by the business information and decisioning control system, the output result forecasting an effect that the what-if case scenario will have on the interrelated business processes;

analyzing the output result to determine whether the forecasted effect on the interrelated business processes is satisfactory;

if the output result is deemed satisfactory, entering a command via the business system user interface, wherein the command prompts at least one of the interrelated business processes to make a change representative of the input setting; and

if the output result is deemed unsatisfactory, repeating the making and analyzing steps.

23. A business information and decisioning control system for performing and acting on what-if forecasts in a business that includes multiple interrelated business processes, comprising:

a control module configured to receive information provided by the interrelated business processes, and to provide commands to the interrelated business processes;

a business system user interface, coupled to the control module, configured to allow a user to interact with the control module, the business system user interface including plural input mechanisms for receiving instructions from the user;

wherein the control module includes;

logic configured to receive the user'"'"'s selection of an input setting made using at least one of the plural input mechanisms, the input setting defining a what-if case scenario;

logic configured to perform a forecast based on the what-if case scenario using a predictive model to generate an output result, the output result forecasting an effect that the what-if case scenario will have on the interrelated business processes;

logic configured to present the output result to the user; and

logic configured to receive the user'"'"'s selection of a command via the business system user interface and to transmit instructions to at least one of the interrelated business processes based on the command, the instructions prompting the at least one of the interrelated business processes to make a change representative of the input setting.

24. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the control module is implemented in a server, and the business system user interface is implemented in a client, wherein the server is coupled to the client via a data-bearing communication path.

25. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the plurality of input mechanisms are configured to detect the user'"'"'s input setting via tactile-related input detection, key actuation, sound recognition, motion detection, or biofeedback input detection.

26. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the business system user interface includes:

a first display field for presenting information regarding what has happened in the business in the past;

a second display field for presenting information regarding what is presently happening in the business; and

a third display field for presenting information regarding what is projected to happen in the business in the future.

27. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the user'"'"'s selection of the input setting defines at least one of:

a setting pertaining to a number of assets involved in at least one of the interrelated business processes;

a setting pertaining to an amount of time that the assets are allocated to a task performed in at least one of the interrelated business processes; and

a setting pertaining to an amount of rework involved in revising a result provided by at least one of the interrelated business processes.

28. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the predictive model is configured to generate the output result based, at least in part, on historical data collected from the interrelated business processes.

29. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 28, further including an extract-transform-load module configured to collect the historical data from the interrelated business processes, transform the historical data into a designated form, and store the transformed data in a database for use by the business information and decisioning control system, wherein the database is coupled to the business information and decisioning control system.

30. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 28, wherein the historical data is collected from at least one source that is internal to the business, and at least one source that is external to the business.

31. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the predictive model is configured to generate the output result using a transfer function, wherein the transfer function maps at least one independent input variable to the output result.

32. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 31, wherein at least one of the interrelated business processes can be modeled using the same transfer function used to provide the forecast in the control module.

33. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the business information and decisioning control system includes a plurality of models, and wherein the control module further includes logic configured to automatically select a predictive model from the plurality of models based on an assessment performed by the business information and decisioning control system.

34. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the output result pertains to at least one of:

a financial metric pertaining to a forecasted financial performance of the business;

a resource-related metric pertaining to resources used in the business or provided by the business; and

a cycle time pertaining to a time required to complete one or more tasks within the interrelated business processes.

35. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the logic for presenting the output result is configured to display a visual representation of the output result to the user.

36. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 35, wherein the logic for presenting the output result is configured to present the output result as an n-dimensional plot that maps the output result as a function of at least one independent variable.

37. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 35, wherein the logic for presenting the output result is configured to present the output results as an n-dimensional plot that maps the output result as a function of time.

38. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 35, wherein the logic for presenting the output result is configured to present the output result as a probabilistic response surface that provides an indication of a level of statistical confidence associated with the output result.

39. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 35, the wherein the logic for presenting the output result is configured to dynamically update the output result in response to changes in at least one variable that has a bearing on the output result.

40. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 35, wherein the logic for presenting the output result is configured to provide information regarding a measured result that reflects an actual course of the business for comparison with the output result.

41. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 40, wherein the control module further includes logic configured to automatically compare the output result to the measured result based on at least one comparison factor.

42. A business information and decisioning control system according to claim 23, wherein the business pertains to a services-related business or a manufacturing business.

43. A computer-readable medium including instructions for carrying out the control module logic of claim 23.

44. A business system user interface of a business information and decisioning control system, wherein the business information and decisioning control system includes a control module that is configured to receive information provided by plural interrelated business processes in a business, and to provide commands to the interrelated business processes, comprising:

a first display field that presents a plurality of graphical input mechanisms; and

a second display field that presents an output result of a what-if forecast, wherein the input mechanisms are configured to;

receive a user'"'"'s selection of an input setting, the input setting defining a what-if case scenario, wherein the control module is configured to generate the output result using a predictive model based on the what-if case scenario; and

receive the user'"'"'s selection of a command, wherein the control module is configured to transmit instructions to at least one of the interrelated business processes based on the command, the instructions affecting a change in the at least one of the interrelated business processes representative of the input setting.

45. A business system, comprising:

multiple interrelated business processes for collectively accomplishing a business objective;

a business information and decisioning control system, including;

a control module configured to receive information provided by the interrelated business processes, and to provide commands to the interrelated business processes;

a business system user interface, coupled to the control module, configured to allow a user to interact with the control module, the business system user interface including plural input mechanisms for receiving instructions from the user;

wherein the control module includes;

logic configured to receive the user'"'"'s selection of an input setting made using at least one of the plural input mechanisms, the input setting defining a what-if case scenario;

logic configured to perform a forecast based on the what-if case scenario to generate an output result using a predictive model, the output result forecasting an effect that the what-if case scenario will have on interrelated business processes;

logic configured to present the output result to the user; and

logic configured to receive the user'"'"'s selection of a command via the business system user interface and to transmit instructions to at least one of the interrelated business processes based on the command, the instruction affecting a change representative of the input setting.

46. A method for performing and acting on what-if forecasts in a business that includes multiple interrelated business processes, comprising:

providing a business information and decisioning control system to a user, wherein the business information and decisioning control system is coupled to the interrelated business processes;

initiating an automated what-if analysis procedure performed using the business information and decisioning control system, the what-if analysis procedure including;

selecting an input setting that defines a what-if case scenario;

performing a forecast based on the what-if case scenario using a predictive model provided by the business information and decisioning control system to generate an output result, the output result forecasting an effect that the what-if case scenario will have on the interrelated business processes;

determining whether the output result is projected to provide a satisfactory effect on the interrelated business processes;

if the output result is determined to be unsatisfactory, repeating the selecting, performing, and determining until a satisfactory output result is achieved; and

if the output result is determined to be satisfactory, making a change to at least one of the interrelated business processes based on the input setting associated with the satisfactory output result.

47. A method according to claim 46, wherein the initiating is in response to manual activation by the user.

48. A method according to claim 46, wherein the initiating is in response to automatic triggering of the what-if analysis procedure in response to an occurrence of a predetermined event.

49. A method according to claim 46, wherein the determining of whether the output result is satisfactory includes comparing the output result to a predetermined business objective.

50. A business information and decisioning control system for performing and acting on what-if forecasts in a business that includes multiple interrelated business processes, comprising:

a control module configured to receive information provided by the interrelated business processes, and to provide commands to the interrelated business processes;

a business system user interface, coupled to the control module, configured to allow a user to interact with the control module;

wherein the control module includes automated business analysis logic including;

logic configured to initiate an automated what-if analysis procedure;

logic configured to select an input setting that defines a what-if case scenario upon initiation of the automated what-if analysis procedure;

logic configured to perform a forecast based on the what-if case scenario using a predictive model provided by the business information and decisioning control system to generate an output result, the output result forecasting an effect that the what-if case scenario will have on the interrelated business processes;

logic configured to determine whether the output result is projected to provide a satisfactory effect on the interrelated business processes;

wherein, if the output result is determined to be unsatisfactory, the automated business analysis logic is configured to repeat the selecting, performing, and determining performed by the logic for selecting, logic for performing, and logic for determining, respectively, until a satisfactory output result is achieved; and

wherein, if the output result is determined to be satisfactory, the business information and decisioning control system is configured to make a change to at least one of the interrelated business processes based on the input setting associated with the satisfactory output result.

51. A business information and decisioning system according to claim 50, wherein the logic for initiating is configured to initiate the what-if analysis procedure in response to manual activation by the user.

52. A business information and decisioning system according to claim 50, wherein automated business analysis logic for initiating is configured to initiate the what-if analysis procedure in response to an occurrence of a predetermined event.

53. A business information and decisioning system according to claim 50, wherein the logic for determining is configured to determine whether the output result is satisfactory by comparing the output result to a predetermined business objective.